What's the latest with Gomes?

[fearofpopvol1]

he seems to misread balls quite often. As long as he hits he is the best option for the time being.

Found it interesting that Dunn leads the league in XBH and total bases. I would have never thought that possible.

I heard somewhere that Dunn actually has altered his swing some this year and as a result, he should be more of a "complete" hitter. The swing will sacrifice some HRs as a result.

[RedsManRick]

The defensive metrics are fallible. My eyes say Gomes has been OK, and I see most games. Reputation is often overstated.

It's not just how often you've seen Gomes -- it's your internal concept of what average LF defense looks like. As a comparison, many of us thought that EE was better than the defensive metrics suggested. Watching Rolen has been a revelation -- and yet he's slowed down a bit, lost some range, and is now merely average.

I don't think most Reds fans have a good concept of what LF could be.

[TRF]

Gomes hurt his shoulder in 2006 and then was in and out of the lineup over the following two seasons, for whatever reason. But to use that against him is kind of lame, almost like a last ditch effort to prove now what seems to be a very incorrect position from last offseason. Dickerson should have started in LF, Heisey now should be playing there, maybe Kal Daniels can get in shape and play out there, etc etc etc.

It's so weird, I remember guys like Keppinger and Ross becoming mini-celebs on the board due to their small sample size play, the new Krivsky specials. Now Gomes has produced more offensively than these guys ever did over 525 PAs (WOY note: over 2 seasons) and we are just trying to find more and more reasons to bring him down. His defense, his shoulder injury from 2006, his prom date, whatever we can dig up. I'm wondering if it has more to do with the GM that signed him than the player himself. Because I'm not sure that there are many reasons left.

Guys, you are Reds fans and Jonny Gomes has been a phenomenal player for them this season. Not sure if you realized that.

oy freaking vey. Are you serious?

1st of all, Kepp was never seen as a starter. Maybe by a very few, but most saw him as a nice little pickup as a role player. He is and was a statue defensively, and offensively he had a little upside. He was Thug Life 2.0. Ross was an astute buy low catcher for a team that, well, had no catcher. And he way overperformed. If your point is the Reds have had guys that overperformed and Gomes might be one of them, then I can't fault you there.

But that isn't your point, is it. No your point seems to be that Gomes has somehow at age 29 turned a corner and is now a 600 PA player with a near .900 OPS bat. That his defense, which btw, will likely only get worse in the coming months is irrelevant.

How often do you think it happens and sustains itself? Now of all the times it has happened, Pena, Cantu, Branyan, Huff etc. remove the 1B and DH's.

small list huh? when you get to two names let me know.

He's the outlier's outlier. Enjoy it while we can but plan for tomorrow.

[lollipopcurve]

It's not just how often you've seen Gomes -- it's your internal concept of what average LF defense looks like. As a comparison, many of us thought that EE was better than the defensive metrics suggested. Watching Rolen has been a revelation -- and yet he's slowed down a bit, lost some range, and is now merely average.

I don't think most Reds fans have a good concept of what LF could be.

Validity to this. However, every Reds game is against an opponent with their own LF.

I'm not biased. Rolen's decline has been apparent to me. And I happen to think Stubbs' defense is overrated on this board.

I've seen plenty, and Gomes, while not good, is not godawful. He's mediocre.

[kaldaniels]

It still sounds like there are people who wouldn't give Gomes 1 million for 2011 if that was a decision they had to make today.

[lollipopcurve]

It still sounds like there are people who wouldn't give Gomes 1 million for 2011 if that was a decision they had to make today.

Folks are holding to their preseason assessments of Gomes. No one likes to be wrong.

[TRF]

I'd give him 1 mil.

I wouldn't give him the starting LF job though.

[kaldaniels]

A season is a season, cross seasons is nice barroom talk, but it's barroom talk

You were the one who asked for 600 ab's. Production is production. His sample size gets bigger by the day.

[TRF]

You were the one who asked for 600 ab's. Production is production. His sample size gets bigger by the day.

A full season is a different animal than two half seasons. Yes he's piling up numbers. He's never sniffed 120 games or 500 AB's.

[RedsManRick]

I heard somewhere that Dunn actually has altered his swing some this year and as a result, he should be more of a "complete" hitter. The swing will sacrifice some HRs as a result.

He's certainly swinging at more balls outside of the zone than he ever has before. His strikeouts are holding steady but his walk rate would be a career low. His ISO is slightly above his career level. His LD% is right at his career average. But his .362 BABIP sure is pretty....

He's basically trading walks for singles and a few doubles, but some of those are probably undeserved. For all talk about a changed approach, he's still basically the same guy who's just getting lucky.

The power of the desire to find an explanation for which a person can take credit (as opposed to random variation) is quite strong...

[lollipopcurve]

I'd give him 1 mil.

I wouldn't give him the starting LF job though.

His option is 1.75 million, and if the option is declined, Gomes must be released. Exercise it, or lose him.

No brainer. You exercise the option.

[westofyou]

You were the one who asked for 600 ab's. Production is production. His sample size gets bigger by the day.

Cross season stats are nice, but they are not ONE season.

[lollipopcurve]

He's certainly swinging at more balls outside of the zone than he ever has before. His strikeouts are holding steady but his walk rate would be a career low. He's basically trading walks for singles and a few doubles, but some of those are probably undeserved. For all talk about a changed approach, he's still basically the same guy who's just getting lucky.

Sounds like a changed approach to me.

[kaldaniels]

Cross season stats are nice, but they are not ONE season.

When making decisions on how a player will do from here on out...it is perfectly acceptable to look back over his past 500 or 600 AB's.

[edabbs44]

But that isn't your point, is it. No your point seems to be that Gomes has somehow at age 29 turned a corner and is now a 600 PA player with a near .900 OPS bat. That his defense, which btw, will likely only get worse in the coming months is irrelevant.

Gomes was injured a few years back. I have no idea why this isn't taken into account. I do understand that there isn't a stat for injury effect, therefore potentially making it difficult to comprehend, but he got injured which affected his production. So take his injury season numbers, which greatly skew his overall stats, and throw them away. As we can see, he has had some pretty wild swings in stats over the years. Take a guess when he got injured and had surgery on his shoulder, which may or may not have affected his offensive output.

What we have seen from the guy are 525 PAs in Cincinnati that have been pretty friggin good. I know they aren't as good as what Dickerson would provide or what Heisey will provide if given the chance, but still pretty good. The guy is healthy right now and producing.

I don't think he "turned a corner" at age 29. I think he got an opportunity when healthy at the age of 28 and has run with it ever since. Maybe the corner was turned in 2005 when he OPSed .906 as a 24 year old, pre-injury. Or maybe this is one 525 PA illusion, which it could be. But for now I think he is a valuable player on this team.

One question...why do you think his defense will likely get worse over the coming months?