Turn Off Ads?
Page 48 of 51 FirstFirst ... 384445464748495051 LastLast
Results 706 to 720 of 755

Thread: What's the latest with Gomes?

  1. #706
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,062

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    He's never sniffed 120 games or 500 AB's.
    He's OPSed 900+ in a season with 400+ PAs. You can smell 500 from there.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #707
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,251

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    He's certainly swinging at more balls outside of the zone than he ever has before. His strikeouts are holding steady but his walk rate would be a career low. His ISO is slightly above his career level. His LD% is right at his career average. But his .362 BABIP sure is pretty....

    He's basically trading walks for singles and a few doubles, but some of those are probably undeserved. For all talk about a changed approach, he's still basically the same guy who's just getting lucky.

    The power of the desire to find an explanation for which a person can take credit (as opposed to random variation) is quite strong...
    Maybe, but he sure seems like a different hitter in WAS. I have a theory about that.

    I believe the current park in DC plays as a pitchers park. The previous one sure did. Soriano whacked what, 46 HR's as a Nat? that park didn't bother him one iota. I think a big park helps Dunn more. I think he'd be a beast in Seattle, Oakland, Detroit, Chavez Ravine, SD... big parks can have a big boost in BA. And he can hit them out regardless. I think it can have a psychological effect on a player. And whatever is being suppressed in his home park, he isn't carrying the baggage with him on the road. He's projected for his best season ever.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #708
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    7,797

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Gomes was injured a few years back. I have no idea why this isn't taken into account. I do understand that there isn't a stat for injury effect, therefore potentially making it difficult to comprehend, but he got injured which affected his production. So take his injury season numbers, which greatly skew his overall stats, and throw them away. As we can see, he has had some pretty wild swings in stats over the years. Take a guess when he got injured and had surgery on his shoulder, which may or may not have affected his offensive output.

    What we have seen from the guy are 525 PAs in Cincinnati that have been pretty friggin good. I know they aren't as good as what Dickerson would provide or what Heisey will provide if given the chance, but still pretty good. The guy is healthy right now and producing.

    I don't think he "turned a corner" at age 29. I think he got an opportunity when healthy at the age of 28 and has run with it ever since. Maybe the corner was turned in 2005 when he OPSed .906 as a 24 year old, pre-injury. Or maybe this is one 525 PA illusion, which it could be. But for now I think he is a valuable player on this team.

    One question...why do you think his defense will likely get worse over the coming months?
    Is that sarcasm...I'm a little slow.

  5. #709
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,898

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Folks are holding to their preseason assessments of Gomes. No one likes to be wrong.
    200 PA is not enough to completely change a preseason assessment. Small sample sizes are small samples regardless of how well they fit your narrative. And this is all the more true when there is evidence of significant random variation in play in the form of a big BABIP spike.

    I'll agree with you on one thing, nobody likes to be wrong. But some are more open to the possibility than others. If Gomes finishes the season hitting .300/.360/.540 with sustainable peripherals to support it, I'll adjust my perspective of his offensive output accordingly.

    But even then, that doesn't change the overall assessment much. The defense issue is still the big point of disagreement and I'm not going to change my belief in his defensive ability simply because he hasn't been completely terrible in the games I've seen him. My eyes tell me that he's certainly not good in LF and takes funny routes with a slow first step. That he has a track record of poor defense (both scouting and stats) only reinforces the notion.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #710
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,296

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    His option is 1.75 million, and if the option is declined, Gomes must be released. Exercise it, or lose him.

    No brainer. You exercise the option.
    Especially when Hatteberg was exercised for similar money and was cut about 5 hours after it was exercised, it seemed.

  7. #711
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,296

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Is that sarcasm...I'm a little slow.
    You'll have to excuse my friend...he's a little slow.


  8. #712
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,898

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Sounds like a changed approach to me.
    Changed approach, sure. But is that changed approach the cause of the increase in production, as was suggested (if not stated explicitly)? It does not appear so.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #713
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    7,797

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    You'll have to excuse my friend...he's a little slow.

    How'd you get pictures from my family album?

  10. #714
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,251

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    He's OPSed 900+ in a season with 400+ PAs. You can smell 500 from there.
    407 in 2005. and though I was using AB's, he still didn't come close.

    500 AB's is around 600 PA's or more. I'm sure he played with guys that did it, but he hasn't come close.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #715
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    7,797

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    407 in 2005. and though I was using AB's, he still didn't come close.

    500 AB's is around 600 PA's or more. I'm sure he played with guys that did it, but he hasn't come close.
    So at what point does your opinion shift? When Gomes is still playing good with 499 AB this year, will you still point to that 500 AB benchmark? Seriously...give me a number of AB and I'll see you there.

  12. #716
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,251

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    One question...why do you think his defense will likely get worse over the coming months?
    I've stated why. He's a big guy, plays Ryan Freel style of ball in LF. He has an injury history.

    And it's going to get hotter. That won't help. I think it affects everyone, but Gomes looks like a guy that doesn't do heat all that well.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  13. #717
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,296

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I've stated why. He's a big guy, plays Ryan Freel style of ball in LF. He has an injury history.

    And it's going to get hotter. That won't help. I think it affects everyone, but Gomes looks like a guy that doesn't do heat all that well.
    He's from California, he's game for the heat.

  14. #718
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,062

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    200 PA is not enough to completely change a preseason assessment. Small sample sizes are small samples regardless of how well they fit your narrative. And this is all the more true when there is evidence of significant random variation in play in the form of a big BABIP spike.
    My narrative is this: He may have figured something out. He appears to have a better full-field approach. Do not platoon him unless he slumps over an extended time.
    Your narrative appears to be: He's the same player he's always been. Play him, but platoon him at the first sign of regression.

    I know I was wrong about Gomes. I wanted him platooned with Dickerson. And I'm happy to admit it. I think you're clinging to your narrative just a little tighter, even to the point of advocating that Gomes be platooned as soon as he cools off. Which would put him on the bench most nights after what, 20 bad ABs? ("Sorry, Jonny, you were regressing, and we need to get out ahead of the curve on that one.")
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  15. #719
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,898

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Validity to this. However, every Reds game is against an opponent with their own LF.

    I'm not biased. Rolen's decline has been apparent to me. And I happen to think Stubbs' defense is overrated on this board.

    I've seen plenty, and Gomes, while not good, is not godawful. He's mediocre.
    Who is godawful in LF that's currently playing every day? And does mediocre mean "average" or "below average".

    Here are the UZR stats for qualified LF to date. Note that the UZR/150 projections are expected to be more extreme than what we'll see at the end of the season, due to small sample issues.

    The thing that jumps out at me with Gomes are the lack of out of zone plays. Not only has he gotten to the least percentage of balls in his zone, but he's made the fewest out of zone plays. Now, he is behind these guys on innings by about 20%, but give him a few more OOZ and he's still a laggard.

    Code:
    Name		Team	Inn	BIZ   Plays	 RZR   OOZ	 ARM	RngR	ErrR	 UZR* UZR/150
    Crawford	TBR	518	109	 97	0.89	29	 3.4	 8.8	 0.9	13.0	 34.8
    Pierre		CHW	469	 92	 86	0.94	27	-0.7	 6.2	 0.8	 6.3	 23.1
    Holliday	STL	516	 91	 83	0.91	24	 1.3	 2.7	 0.6	 4.5	 11.2
    Soriano		CHC	433	 78	 70	0.90	12	 1.0	 3.1	-1.8	 2.4	  5.8
    Willingham	WSN	484	 83	 73	0.88	26	-0.7	 1.5	 0.5	 1.3	  5.8
    Podsednik	KCR	516	119	103	0.87	27	-0.3	 0.2	 0.0	-0.1	  0.3
    Milledge	PIT	426	 71	 58	0.82	29	-1.7	-0.1	 0.4	-1.4	 -0.9
    Young		MIN	435	 84	 76	0.91	15	 1.7	-1.6	 0.3	 0.4	 -3.2
    Kearns		CLE	413	 84	 76	0.91	21	 0.2	-0.5	-0.3	-0.6	 -3.3
    Bay		NYM	540	 84	 71	0.85	16	-2.2	-0.9	 0.4	-2.7	 -4.0
    Coghlan		FLA	486	 83	 73	0.88	14	 1.0	-2.1	 0.2	-1.0	 -6.2
    Rivera		LAA	422	 77	 65	0.84	27	 1.7	-2.7	-0.4	-1.4	 -9.8
    Hamilton	TEX	434	 85	 72	0.85	25	 3.9	-4.6	 0.4	-0.4	-11.7
    Ibanez		PHI	486	 76	 64	0.84	16	-0.5	-4.6	 0.1	-4.9	-17.6
    Lee		HOU	500	 71	 59	0.83	18	-3.6	-1.5	-0.7	-5.8	-10.9
    Gomes		CIN	389	 61	 50	0.82	10	 0.3	-5.5	 0.4	-4.9	-24.7
    Braun		MIL	524	 81	 72	0.89	17	-1.8	-7.6	 0.2	-9.2	-25.1
    I think we often look at a guy who makes the "routine" plays and assume that means he's average. But average actually includes some number of really good plays too. A guy who is mediocre on the routine plays and doesn't make many really good plays is a pretty poor fielder.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #720
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,251

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    He's from California, he's game for the heat.
    Northern California. Not all that hot.
    Suck it up cupcake.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25