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Thread: What's the latest with Gomes?

  1. #721
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    I think we often look at a guy who makes the "routine" plays and assume that means he's average. But average actually includes some number of really good plays too. A guy who is mediocre on the routine plays and doesn't make many really good plays is a pretty poor fielder.
    Small sample, no? You can't tell me that Carlos Lee has made 18 OOZ plays, while Chris Coghlan has made 14, in roughly the same number of innings, and keep a straight face, can you?

    I have almost no faith in these metrics. That's the bottom line. Sorry.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  3. #722
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    My narrative is this: He may have figured something out. He appears to have a better full-field approach. Do not platoon him unless he slumps over an extended time.
    Your narrative appears to be: He's the same player he's always been. Play him, but platoon him at the first sign of regression.
    Not quite. My narrative is that he's still pretty much the same player offensively. But even if he's improved a bit at the plate, he's still a crappy defender and that significantly limits his production.[/QUOTE]

    I know I was wrong about Gomes. I wanted him platooned with Dickerson. And I'm happy to admit it. I think you're clinging to your narrative just a little tighter, even to the point of advocating that Gomes be platooned as soon as he cools off. Which would put him on the bench most nights after what, 20 bad ABs? ("Sorry, Jonny, you were regressing, and we need to get out ahead of the curve on that one.")
    I wanted him platooned and, if he's going to continue to play, still do. The only reason I'd wait for him to "cool off" is for the politics of the situation.

    And you got the quote wrong. People misunderstand regressing. Regressing is not playing worse such that your season totals move back to expectations. It's simply that your most likely performance moving forward is what your expectations were to begin with and your "hot streak" hasn't significantly altered that.

    My quote would be "Sorry, Jonny. You're a butcher in the field and it's hurting our pitching staff. I'm going to try and get you some plate appearances pinch hitting, giving guys a day off, subbing in against a real tough lefty and so forth. But on a daily basis I need to go with somebody who can help us out on both sides of the ball."
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #723
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Small sample, no? You can't tell me that Carlos Lee has made 18 OOZ plays, while Chris Coghlan has made 14, in roughly the same number of innings, and keep a straight face, can you?
    You say this as if its subjective and its just some guy says 'Yeah, I think that was out of the zone'. It isn't. There is a set grid that shows what is 'in zone' and what is not. So yeah, we can all absolutely 100% tell you that with a straight face because its a fact, not an opinion.

  5. #724
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You say this as if its subjective and its just some guy says 'Yeah, I think that was out of the zone'. It isn't. There is a set grid that shows what is 'in zone' and what is not. So yeah, we can all absolutely 100% tell you that with a straight face because its a fact, not an opinion.
    That still is subjective. The "zone" is still subjective based on the ballpark and/or positioning by coaches.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  6. #725
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Small sample, no? You can't tell me that Carlos Lee has made 18 OOZ plays, while Chris Coghlan has made 14, in roughly the same number of innings, and keep a straight face, can you?

    I have almost no faith in these metrics. That's the bottom line. Sorry.
    And you, having not watched many (if any) of their games this year can tell me with a straight face that's not true? Do I know that it's 18 and 14 respectively? Of course not. The metric isn't perfect and nobody claims that it is. But I doubt that it's, say, 10 and 20 in reality and both guys just happened to get jobbed by the system.

    I wouldn't expect Lee to make more OOZ plays than Coghlan moving forward -- but it seems perfectly reasonable to suggest it's possible he's done so thus far this year. And in the absence of having watched both guys play and coding the data myself, I'll trust the data as much as anything else. Despite the adage, players have good and bad years defensively too. You're always going to be able to find outliers. But their presence does not discount the system.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #726
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    And you, having not watched many (if any) of their games this year can tell me with a straight face that's not true? Do I know that it's 18 and 14 respectively? Of course not. The metric isn't perfect and nobody claims that it is. But I doubt that it's, say, 10 and 20 in reality and both guys just happened to get jobbed by the system.

    I wouldn't expect Lee to make more OOZ plays than Coghlan moving forward -- but it seems perfectly reasonable to suggest it's possible he's done so thus far this year. And in the absence of having watched both guys play and coding the data myself, I'll trust the data as much as anything else. Despite the adage, players have good and bad years defensively too. You're always going to be able to find outliers.
    So we trust something that is likely flawed because it's the best we have?

    That's fine and understandable. Just understand why some people don't trust WAR and other values placed on players here.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  8. #727
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    So we trust something that is likely flawed because it's the best we have?

    That's fine and understandable. Just understand why some people don't trust WAR and other values placed on players here.
    All systems are flawed. Offensive ones and defensive ones.

  9. #728
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    The metric isn't perfect and nobody claims that it is.
    And just because it's the system, doesn't mean it's a good system.

    That still is subjective. The "zone" is still subjective based on the ballpark and/or positioning by coaches.
    I tend to agree with this outlook. In addition, some guys may have a CF who wants every ball he can get to. Some guys may play with more foul ground than others. Etc.

    Based on a third of a season's worth of data -- using an imperfect stat that's been described here as needing 3 years of data to be trustworthy -- that's the justification for telling Gomes he needs to sit? Not buying it.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #729
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    All systems are flawed. Offensive ones and defensive ones.
    Not to mention the "WoTV" (watching on TV) system!

    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  11. #730
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    In addition, some guys may have a CF who wants every ball he can get to. Some guys may play with more foul ground than others. Etc.
    While that may come into play on his out of zone plays, it isn't coming into play at all in their in zone plays.

  12. #731
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    While that may come into play on his out of zone plays, it isn't coming into play at all in their in zone plays.
    It's a factor.

    Can someone explain how Josh Willingham could have more than twice as many OOZ plays than Soriano (who somehow ranks in the top 5 according to our UZR-so-far spreadsheet)?

    Explanation, please.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  13. #732
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Not to mention the "WoTV" (watching on TV) system!
    Back to your defense thread.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  14. #733
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    So we trust something that is likely flawed because it's the best we have?

    That's fine and understandable. Just understand why some people don't trust WAR and other values placed on players here.
    Yup. But we don't blindly trust of course; to the extent that it's possibly, we constantly test and verify. I'm all for using as much of the best quality information we have and am always willing to adjust my conclusions when the "facts" change.

    I went from a staunch Dunn supporter in the pre-WAR days to a more nuanced "good, but not great, and not worth $12+ over many years" position the year he was dealt as defensive data became public.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #734
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    And just because it's the system, doesn't mean it's a good system.



    I tend to agree with this outlook. In addition, some guys may have a CF who wants every ball he can get to. Some guys may play with more foul ground than others. Etc.

    Based on a third of a season's worth of data -- using an imperfect stat that's been described here as needing 3 years of data to be trustworthy -- that's the justification for telling Gomes he needs to sit? Not buying it.
    Yup, much better to use a subject of games watched on TV (in the case of Gomes) or basically nothing at all (Lee/Coghlan)

    As for Gomes, he's got a whole lot more than this year's worth of defensive data saying that he's not good at all out there. It's hardly a position based solely on this year's data. I guess the idea is to use the small samples when they support your position and deride them when they don't?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #735
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    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    I'm sensing "Good is the enemy of perfect so we'll ally with terrible."
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"


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