Turn Off Ads?
Page 50 of 51 FirstFirst ... 40464748495051 LastLast
Results 736 to 750 of 755

Thread: What's the latest with Gomes?

  1. #736
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,578

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    It's a factor.

    Can someone explain how Josh Willingham could have more than twice as many OOZ plays than Soriano (who somehow ranks in the top 5 according to our UZR-so-far spreadsheet)?

    Explanation, please.
    I am not sure what spreadsheet you are talking about.....

    But Willingham can have twice as many out of zone plays as Soriano by simply getting to more balls out of his zone. I am not quite sure if you are asking something else or not.....

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #737
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,298

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    I would love to see these stats in real life. For example, a compilation of out of zone plays made and in zone plays not made by a given player. With such small sample sizes it must be easy to isolate. Has this ever been done?

  4. #738
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,091

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    It's a factor.

    Can someone explain how Josh Willingham could have more than twice as many OOZ plays than Soriano (who somehow ranks in the top 5 according to our UZR-so-far spreadsheet)?

    Explanation, please.
    By making more of those plays? What's so confusing about this being a possibility? This line of reasoning is akin to deriding HRs because Jose Bautista has 2x as many as Ryan Braun and Kelly Johnson has half again as many HR as ARod.

    That a few presumably good defenders have fewer OOZ plays than a few presumably bad defenders doesn't discount OOZ's legitimacy. Sure, it's a rough classification. But it certainly gives us a better idea about how those guys have performed so far this year than just using our guts.

    If you want to me analyze a few years worth of data, I'll happily do that analysis tonight. FWIW, Chris Coghlan had fewer OOZ plays last year than any other qualified LF. If we adjust for OOZ opportunities by comparing them to the number of balls in zone, we see Gomes has made 1 OOZ play for every 8.7 balls hit within his zone in LF for his career (he was at 8.8 for RF).

    By comparison, the two worst guys in 2009, Coghlan and Jason Bay (though Bay had a systematic bias due to the Green Monster) were at 1:6.1. In 2008, it was Raul Ibanez at 1 OOZ per 7.1 balls in zone. Most guys are in the 4 to 5 range in a given year. Dunn was at 10.1. I don't think there's any doubt that Gomes is poor LF at making OOZ plays. I'll provide richer data tonight.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #739
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,091

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I would love to see these stats in real life. For example, a compilation of out of zone plays made and in zone plays not made by a given player. With such small sample sizes it must be easy to isolate. Has this ever been done?
    I agree. I actually attended a presentation by John Dewan (of BIS) where he did just this. It was absolutely fascinating. They go through every single play on video to code it. There is room for human error, without a doubt, but with different people doing the coding, I'm not sure where systematic bias would sneak in, save for field configuration (shallow OF fences and close-by stands give less room for OOZ plays).

    Two examples he used were Nate McClouth and Chase Utley.

    McClouth plays in quite far. He was making a lot of plays deemed OOZ in front of him, but giving up some plays in zone behind him -- mostly line drives that other guys would have caught. It looked like he was making more plays than other guys -- and he was. But he was trading singles for doubles.

    Utley also positioned himself differently than his peers. Specifically, he played further back and shifted much more based on batter handedness. So he actually doesn't move much more than the average 2B (Dewan actually said, "he's not nearly as "rangy" as Brandon Phillips"), but he gets to more balls OOZ because he moves his personal zone effectively.

    There's a lot of room for error in this type of data. But when I dug in to it, I found enough to convince me that while the precision is still weak (big error bars), the accuracy is pretty good (average in the right place).
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #740
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    19,061

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Not to mention the "WoTV" (watching on TV) system!

    At least that one doesn't challenge cherished beliefs... didn't someone allude earlier that humans don't link to let go of things they cling to?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #741
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    19,061

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I am not sure what spreadsheet you are talking about.....

    But Willingham can have twice as many out of zone plays as Soriano by simply getting to more balls out of his zone. I am not quite sure if you are asking something else or not.....
    I think he's suggesting that wouldn't be something you'd predict (JW having 2X the OOZ plays as Soriano) and "he's asking what's up with that"?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #742
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    43,001

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Northern California. Not all that hot.
    Sure it's hot, real hot.

    Just not near the coast.

  9. #743
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    25,047

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    At least that one doesn't challenge cherished beliefs... didn't someone allude earlier that humans don't link to let go of things they cling to?
    Fair objections to the questions surrounding defensive metrics doesn't make anyone a Luddite.

    It took me a bit to see that getting on base was more important than hitting a ball far (without a minimum of OB), but eventually it jived with me, and made sense externally and internally. It aligned with real world real time events, numbers, and scores.

  10. #744
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    43,001

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    When making decisions on how a player will do from here on out...it is perfectly acceptable to look back over his past 500 or 600 AB's.
    Not for me, you blend the odd duck month of September with the start of a season, I see it differently

  11. #745
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    19,061

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Fair objections to the questions surrounding defensive metrics doesn't make anyone a Luddite.
    And appreciating defensive metrics doesn't make one impossibly biased.

    WAR jives very well with RS/RA. Defensive metrics certainly aren't perfect but they can't be anywhere close to fatally flawed.

    These discussions would be more fun if the two poles were eschewed for the middle territory.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #746
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    25,047

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    And appreciating defensive metrics doesn't make one impossibly biased.

    WAR jives very well with RS/RA. Defensive metrics certainly aren't perfect but they can't be anywhere close to fatally flawed.

    These discussions would be more fun if the two poles were eschewed for the middle territory.
    I'm an agnostic, not an atheist. FWIW.

  13. #747
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    8,084

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Not for me, you blend the odd duck month of September with the start of a season, I see it differently
    But when you look back at 2010, it will include both the start of the season and the odd duck month of Sept as well.

  14. #748
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    43,001

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    But when you look back at 2010, it will include both the start of the season and the odd duck month of Sept as well.
    Yep, but it won't include 2009's September, which when combined refuses to note 6 months off and thus IMO becomes a bunch of noise in the numbers.

  15. #749
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,175

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    I think he's suggesting that wouldn't be something you'd predict (JW having 2X the OOZ plays as Soriano) and "he's asking what's up with that"?
    Yep. No one can convince me that Willingham covers more ground than Soriano. It suggests to me that either the people recording the data are making mistakes, or that the zones are not adjusted for where a guy is playing.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  16. #750
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: What's the latest with Gomes?

    Gomes will be on Jim Rome is Burning today at 4:30 ET.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25