Turn Off Ads?
Page 7 of 11 FirstFirst ... 34567891011 LastLast
Results 91 to 105 of 159

Thread: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

  1. #91
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,869

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Highest ceiling - Neftali Soto (Tucker Barnhardt if Soto doesn't count)
    Most likely to make majors - Uhhhh, Corky Miller?
    This post tells me that Mesoraco is quite underrated in these parts. He is a guy who had well above average power in the FSL last season with an above average walk rate despite being a 20/21 year old catching prospect. Top it off with that once he was healthy, he gunned down over 45% of the base runners who tried stealing against him.... and that guy gets put behind Tucker Barnhardt in terms of highest ceiling?

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #92
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    939

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    I am not going to say anything else about Mesoraco because I like him and I hope he makes it. But there is way too much attention placed on the round that players are drafted, whether it is the first round like Mesoraco or the 44th like Coddington.

    Just taking a quick look, the player drafted with the pick after Mesoraco in 2007 was Kevin Ahrens by Toronto. Ahrens hit .215 in 2009 in the same league Mesoraco played in. By comparison, the #1 prospect in the Toronto organization right now was also eligible for the 2007 draft and WAS NOT DRAFTED AT ALL. I think most of us are familiar with that particular player. So over the same time period, Ahrens, taken one pick after Mesoraco, is now held in far poorer regard than a player who was not seen as being worth a 50th round pick in the same draft.

    Two picks before Mesoraco, Cleveland took Beau Mills with the 13th overall pick. He is now listed as the 24th best prospect in the Indians organization. Among the players listed ahead of him is Josh Judy, who was taken in the 34th round of that same draft. A 34th rounder is generally going to have the same scout's grade as a 44th rounder.

    These are players taken right before and right after Mesoraco. It is not as unusual as it might appear.

    Years ago, I remember being associated with a team that received two players shortly after the draft. One was a first round pick out the University of Iowa named Tim Costo. He looked good and generated lots of attention. At the same time, the team got this absolute noboby third baseman out of some tiny school in Illinois. This kid was a much later round pick and no one had heard of him, including his new teammates. After a couple of weeks, one day, several players were commenting about how good Costo looked. Then one player chimed in that yes, Costo looked good, but if he didn't know better, he would think this unsung, unheard of hayseed kid from Illinois was actually the higher draft pick. This comment produced several laughs. Costo went on to play a little in the big leagues as a fringe player and was briefly with the Reds. The other player, the unheard of hayseed, is now, I believe, 12th on the all-time career home run list. Jim Thome.

    It happens.

  4. #93
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,869

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    While I generally can get behind draft position meaning too much, I am not paying any attention to it when comparing Coddington to Mesoraco. I am simply looking at their skills. At the plate the only advantage Coddington has is a small one in contact rate. Mesoraco walks much more and hits for a lot more power. Behind the plate, the two guys threw out the same % of runners this season. Coddington was more sure handed back there, with fewer passed balls, but he also made errors at a slightly higher rate as well. The big edge that Mesoraco holds with the bat more than makes up the small edge Coddington has with the glove.

  5. #94
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    9,970

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    I am simply looking at their skills.
    You're looking at numbers.

    Redsof 72 has seen a lot of minor league baseball, and he's seen both of these players quite a bit. I figure he knows what he's looking at.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  6. #95
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,869

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    You're looking at numbers.

    Redsof 72 has seen a lot of minor league baseball, and he's seen both of these players quite a bit. I figure he knows what he's looking at.
    I too have seen these players quite a bit. Skills show up in the numbers. Ones plate discipline shows up. Ones power shows up in isolated power. Yes, they are numbers, but they tell us how well that players current skillset is.

  7. #96
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,052

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    I can't say who's more talented, but I can understand how 72 can judge Coddington that way. Talent is more than the measurables. Maybe Coddington has superior talent at framing pitches, breaking down hitters, chasing pop flies, communicating with pitchers, blocking balls in the dirt, fouling off strikes, hitting behind the runner, putting the bat on the ball. There are a lot of ways to look at talent. And not all of them are prioritized by all scouts.
    I guess it's all in how you define talent. Problem is I don't believe you really can define it more than one way it is what it is.

    Talent
    a. Natural endowment or ability of a superior quality.
    Skill
    1. Proficiency, facility, or dexterity that is acquired or developed through training or experience
    Talent is a god given ability, a skill is something gained/developed through practice/repetition/work. Those abilities you speak of are above are governed by a talent but they are developed skills, in short talent is just measurables. 5 tool guys should be renamed 5 talent guys because the better those 5 tools the higher the ceiling. Guys are generally drafted based on their talent level 1st. So whether they flame out or not it's not a commentary on their talent level. As 72 points out (and as I did earlier) there are exceptions to the rule but the numbers then can tell you that a mistake was made in assessing/evaluating the talent and in this case the numbers tell us that's not the case here. That doesn't mean Coddington won't end up the better player as a number of things could still determine this but I think the odds are growing ever closer to Mes reaching fairly high up the wall to his ceiling. And just because people don't understand, don't give a lot of creedence to or just refuse to accept that the peripherals are pretty telling doesn't make it any less true.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  8. #97
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,097

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Here is the problem with bias. Once you like a player, you can find numbers to support your position. It's like Tom Selleck in Mr. Baseball...
    LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
    By the numbers, it doesn't appear that Mes outplayed Coddington. The standard numbers. Go digging for LD% and all of a sudden you get a different story. Now I'll explain why IMO LD% is a silly stat.

    1st of all it's a scorer's decision. Minor league scorekeepers vary greatly in ability. 2nd, the definition of a LD is too low for a fly ball, higher than a ground ball. It does not indicate the power at all. a soft liner to 2b is a line drive. Maybe in the major leagues it has more value, but LD% across the minors, especially the low minors has much less value. Eyes on the player has more value. If the eyes confirm the numbers like LD% which contradict numbers like SLG, then we can attribute that to luck. That'd be Mes' season at Sarasota. Normalize his BABIP, and he OPS's .800+

    (see how I am actually taking both sides of this argument)

    But it works both ways. Hot streaks happen. A month of a BABIP around .470 happens. Guys are just unconcious at the plate. But it is also unrealistic to believe that it is either sustainable, or indicative of a player's talent level. It might be his absolute ceiling, something most players never even brush more than once in their careers.

    Right now, IMO both players are pretty even statistically. Mes has the edge in future growth based on his age. But it's a slim margin at best. Neither player has done much to make the organization get giddy. If they had we wouldn't have heard rumors about Alonso and Soto switching to catcher,
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #98
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    9,970

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Neither player has done much to make the organization get giddy. If they had we wouldn't have heard rumors about Alonso and Soto switching to catcher,
    Exactly. If they felt all systems were go with Mesoraco, they wouldn't be messing with Soto defensively.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #99
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,869

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Exactly. If they felt all systems were go with Mesoraco, they wouldn't be messing with Soto defensively.
    Hogwash. They are messing with Soto defensively because he doesn't have a spot outside of first base that seems to fit what he can do. While I am sure they don't feel all systems are a go with Mesoraco, I am pretty sure that has nothing at all to do with Soto being tried there.

  11. #100
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,039

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Here is the problem with bias. Once you like a player, you can find numbers to support your position. It's like Tom Selleck in Mr. Baseball...
    You don't say??? Bias develop and they cloud the situation. I think a problem in judging minor league stats is that the people closer to the situation develop biases and people from outside the situation don't have enough resources to accurately judge the situation.


    By the numbers, it doesn't appear that Mes outplayed Coddington. The standard numbers. Go digging for LD% and all of a sudden you get a different story. Now I'll explain why IMO LD% is a silly stat.

    1st of all it's a scorer's decision. Minor league scorekeepers vary greatly in ability. 2nd, the definition of a LD is too low for a fly ball, higher than a ground ball. It does not indicate the power at all. a soft liner to 2b is a line drive. Maybe in the major leagues it has more value, but LD% across the minors, especially the low minors has much less value. Eyes on the player has more value. If the eyes confirm the numbers like LD% which contradict numbers like SLG, then we can attribute that to luck. That'd be Mes' season at Sarasota. Normalize his BABIP, and he OPS's .800+
    Do scorers judge line drive? I thought it was not the games official score, but someone from outside the organization. I do tend to agree with you it would be much more enlightening if you could find a way to determine the force of the ball hit. But then again a soft liner is more likely to find a hole than a lazy fly ball.

  12. #101
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,869

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Do scorers judge line drive? I thought it was not the games official score, but someone from outside the organization. I do tend to agree with you it would be much more enlightening if you could find a way to determine the force of the ball hit. But then again a soft liner is more likely to find a hole than a lazy fly ball.
    I am not sure if its the official scorer or not, but there is a spot in the press box where a computer is set up and connected to the MILB.com website where someone inputs all the data for that play.

    While there may be a slight distinction between a soft line drive and a low fly ball, you are generally going to weed that data out over 400+ balls in play. Also, since you have home and away scorers, you aren't going to get home town biases on these things either. You generally see guys with extremely similar LD rates at home and on the road.

  13. #102
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    9,970

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Hogwash. They are messing with Soto defensively because he doesn't have a spot outside of first base that seems to fit what he can do. While I am sure they don't feel all systems are a go with Mesoraco, I am pretty sure that has nothing at all to do with Soto being tried there.
    Disagree. Soto has not played himself off 3B, and there's always LF (where they've been willing to work out both Alonso and Francisco).

    In my view, the decision to try Soto at catcher likely reflects a couple of perspectives taking shape among the development folks: 1. Soto is blocked by better players at 3B-1B-LF. 2. There is no catching prospect to get excited about.

    Soto and Mesoraco have been playing at the same level. Mesoraco's an ex-first-rounder. To move Soto to Mesoraco's position is absolutely a commentary on how the organization views Mesoraco right now.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  14. #103
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,097

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I am not sure if its the official scorer or not, but there is a spot in the press box where a computer is set up and connected to the MILB.com website where someone inputs all the data for that play.

    While there may be a slight distinction between a soft line drive and a low fly ball, you are generally going to weed that data out over 400+ balls in play. Also, since you have home and away scorers, you aren't going to get home town biases on these things either. You generally see guys with extremely similar LD rates at home and on the road.
    I wasn't thinking bias. I was thinking about the ability to judge a ball in play. Also is a line shot foul recorded? If the ball is an out, I imagine it is, but i doubt every pitch is recorded and kept. This is where eyes on the player helps, and it supports doug's analysis of Mes and... others.

    but eventually, it has to show up in the SLG. And if it doesn't, LD% adds nothing to the player's skillset. Ultimately, the SLG is what matters when we say power. Sure you can say IsoP or other stats, but SLG will reflect those as well.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #104
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,869

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I wasn't thinking bias. I was thinking about the ability to judge a ball in play. Also is a line shot foul recorded? If the ball is an out, I imagine it is, but i doubt every pitch is recorded and kept. This is where eyes on the player helps, and it supports doug's analysis of Mes and... others.
    Foul balls that aren't turned into outs aren't recorded. Just outs and hits.

    but eventually, it has to show up in the SLG. And if it doesn't, LD% adds nothing to the player's skillset. Ultimately, the SLG is what matters when we say power. Sure you can say IsoP or other stats, but SLG will reflect those as well.
    Actually LD% helps average out, which in turn does help slugging. Not all line drives are the same. For example a line drive hit by Juan Francisco isn't going to be the same as one hit by Ryan Hanigan. Both will go for hits over 70% of the time, but Francisco's probably go to the wall quite a bit more.

    IsoP is more slugging than SLG though. If we look at the two following stat lines, they result in the same SLG rate, but one guy clearly has more power than the other:
    .310/.400/.500
    .225/.300/.500

    Same slugging, big difference in power.

  16. #105
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    11,422

    Re: Neftali Soto - Catcher?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Disagree. Soto has not played himself off 3B, and there's always LF (where they've been willing to work out both Alonso and Francisco).

    In my view, the decision to try Soto at catcher likely reflects a couple of perspectives taking shape among the development folks: 1. Soto is blocked by better players at 3B-1B-LF. 2. There is no catching prospect to get excited about.

    Soto and Mesoraco have been playing at the same level. Mesoraco's an ex-first-rounder. To move Soto to Mesoraco's position is absolutely a commentary on how the organization views Mesoraco right now.
    I guess that means the organization doesn't think highly of any of their second basemen or left fielders since they've tried out Todd Frazier at both. Heck, Frazier started as a shortstop before he was moved to third base. Why does it have to mean that they don't think highly of Mesoraco instead of trying to match a player's position to his skills?


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25