Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 12 of 12

Thread: Someone maybe forgotten...

  1. #1
    Blowing away bad memories Redsfan320's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Oxford, OH
    Posts
    2,282

    Someone maybe forgotten...

    in the thick of Arroyo and Harang trade rumors, Homer's finally putting it together, Volquez's surgery, and all the 5th starter talk... is Johnny Cueto.

    Last year he had an 11-11 record, 4.41 ERA, 132 K, and a 1.36 WHIP in 171.1 IP, and 30 G. He's probably most remembered for his 10 runs-in less than 1 IP performance in Philly.

    Not great numbers, but he's got some good stuff, and could be a really good pitcher with a little improvement.

    So... what do we all think about Cueto?

    320
    I'd rather listen to Kelch read the phone book than suffer through Thom Brennaman's attempt to make every instance on the field the most important event since the discovery of manned space flight. -westofyou

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    247

    Re: Someone maybe forgotten...

    Has the stuff. He should be a quality starter for the near future and hopefully the distant future.

  4. #3
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Lebanon
    Posts
    7,067

    Re: Someone maybe forgotten...

    Well, he doesn't have the World Baseball Classic to add innings to his arm this year, so hopefully the rest and coming in fresh will help him. He's got 2 years under his belt. He should be coming into his own. Not to mention his stats were pretty good for a first and second year player.

  5. #4
    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Centerville, Ohio
    Posts
    1,420

    Re: Someone maybe forgotten...

    I think this is the year he starts to put things together. IMO...

    He has 2 full years at the ML level. Arbitration is only a year away and he could command sizable dollars if he puts together a 14-7 200 Inn 180K 3.50 ERA type season at 24. I don't think it is lost on him,

    By the beginning of next season with Harang and Arroyo gone and Volquez back to 100% we could have a very deep and powerful rotation of:

    Cueto 94 to 98
    Bailey 92 to 98
    Chapman 95 to 100
    Volquez 91 to 96
    Wood 86 to 91 with the best change in the organization

    With Leake and Klinker both knocking on the door....

    Not to mention surprises that'll arise out of the system this year.
    If you can't be a good example... then you'll just have to be a horrible warning...

    Nothing tastes as good as being fit feels...

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,578

    Re: Someone maybe forgotten...

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsfan320 View Post

    So... what do we all think about Cueto?
    His .780 OBP against was a putrid number. He stunk last year despite a respectable ERA for his age. He made a lot of stupid pitches. He gave players too many "sweet" pitches to knock around, and knock them around they did.

    He's got a lot of work to do on the "mental" side of the game. But, that's to be expected from someone as young as he is with the amount of experience he's had. He's exactly where he's supposed to be....on track towards a very good career. But, if he were to make a lot of growth in any one year, this is the year he's most likely to do it based on age and time in the Majors.

    I could see him dropping 50 points off of that OPS against, and if he does that, he'll be a respectable pitcher in 2010. The ERA will probably drop to between 3.55-3.75, and that's very good for a 3rd year pitcher. He'll probably last more innings, increase his season total from 171 to 201, and put less pressure on the bullpen, so that they stay fresher and can peform better themselves. Lowering that OPS against will make everyone better.

    He'll have Rolen at 3rd and Stubbs at CF for a full season....huge improvements defensively over EE and Taveras. He'll lose out on having Cabrera at SS, as he had Janish for half a season last year. Janish is likely to only get a 1/6th of a season of starts. Hernandez should be able to play more Catcher, and I have a feeling that Hernandez might handle the pitchers better than Hanigan, even though Hanigan has the great arm.

    Cueto dropped his OPS against 23 points from the year before, so a 50-point drop would be dramatic. I think he's got it in him, though. We have a new pitching Coach, don't we? That could be the difference for him in 2010.

    That drop of OPS-Against of 50 points down to the .720 level, will drop him out of the bottom 20% of starters in the NL who are allowed to continue to start all season to the middle 20% of starter who are allowed to continue to start all season. (Only 6 NL Starters had a worse OPS-Against last year and were allowed to continue to start games all season. 41 NL pitchers had lower OPS-Against numbers. If he can get to about .720 Against, he'll be middle of the pack, from 24th to 27th. The players who finished 24th through 27th last season, for comparison, were Jonathan Sanchez, Roy Oswalt, Barry Zito, and Ryan Dempster.)

    How many wins he gets is out of his control. That's luck from one year to the next depending on what kind of run support you get, and defense you get behind you, and schedule, and way too many variables. But, he should get a chance on more than 22 decisions because he'll be lasting deeper into games. Look at him being involved in 26 decisions in 2010.

    He also didn't pitch too many innings any of the last 3 years, so he should be healthy. Between him and Bailey, we should have two very healthy, very good young pitchers, both giving us 200 innings and ERA's around 3.60.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 02-22-2010 at 04:07 AM.

  7. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Omaha, NE
    Posts
    2,161

    Re: Someone maybe forgotten...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Between him and Bailey, we should have two very healthy, very good young pitchers, both giving us 200 innings and ERA's around 3.60.
    Nothing like unrealistic expecations, again.

    Why don't you see if these guys can get to the lower 4's and MAYBE break down under 4.00 before you start asking them to be better than Aaron Harang, circa 2005-2007 (where Harang NEVER touched 3.60 ERA despite two years of 1.27 WIP and one of 1.14).

    I'd be happy with GOALS of 1.3 WHIPs and 4.25 ERA's.
    Give them some goals they might even be able to break, not make them unreasonable high-end expectations.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

  8. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Chapel Hill NC
    Posts
    3,262

    Re: Someone maybe forgotten...

    I dont know for sure, obviously, but he seemed to go down hill somewhat when he didnt get an All Star nod after a good start, seemed like he was offended and kind of shut down at that point. Again, that was just my thought last year from a distance, and only my opinion, nothing to show for it.
    UNC Tar Heels 2009 National Champions 5 time NCAA Champs
    57, 82, 93, 05, 09
    Go Heels!!!!!

  9. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,578

    Re: Someone maybe forgotten...

    Quote Originally Posted by BLEEDS View Post
    Nothing like unrealistic expecations, again.

    Why don't you see if these guys can get to the lower 4's and MAYBE break down under 4.00 before you start asking them to be better than Aaron Harang, circa 2005-2007 (where Harang NEVER touched 3.60 ERA despite two years of 1.27 WIP and one of 1.14).

    I'd be happy with GOALS of 1.3 WHIPs and 4.25 ERA's.
    Give them some goals they might even be able to break, not make them unreasonable high-end expectations.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I did think of that, and I thought really hard that a 3.60 ERA was way too much to expect from Bailey. But, after thinking hard about it, I'm still convinced that he's reached another level and won't regress. A 3.60 ERA is a 4.00 ERA one half and a 3.20 ERA the other half. I think he's capable of having a consistent campaign.

    But, like you said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Homer does get closer to 4.00 than 3.60, and like you, I'd be happy with 1.3 WHIPS from both of them. In fact, that would be very good.

  10. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,578

    Re: Someone maybe forgotten...

    Quote Originally Posted by BLEEDS View Post
    Why don't you see if these guys can get to the lower 4's and MAYBE break down under 4.00 before you start asking them to be better than Aaron Harang, circa 2005-2007 (where Harang NEVER touched 3.60 ERA despite two years of 1.27 WIP and one of 1.14).
    Yes, but Harang also had OPS'-Against that these two players can hope to achieve in 2011. If either of them reach the .690 OPS against that Harang had about 3 years ago, then that will be something to celebrate. Actually, I do expect one or both of them to reach it in 2011 or 2012.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 02-22-2010 at 10:28 PM.

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,578

    Re: Someone maybe forgotten...

    Quote Originally Posted by bounty37h View Post
    I dont know for sure, obviously, but he seemed to go down hill somewhat when he didnt get an All Star nod after a good start, seemed like he was offended and kind of shut down at that point. Again, that was just my thought last year from a distance, and only my opinion, nothing to show for it.
    He's just wasn't seasoned. He needed experience. Same with Bailey the last 3 years.

    Both of them are coming into their own right at the same time. We should get very good years from both of them.

  12. #11
    Stat geek...and proud
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Paris, OH
    Posts
    2,584

    Re: Someone maybe forgotten...

    Quote Originally Posted by bounty37h View Post
    I dont know for sure, obviously, but he seemed to go down hill somewhat when he didnt get an All Star nod after a good start, seemed like he was offended and kind of shut down at that point. Again, that was just my thought last year from a distance, and only my opinion, nothing to show for it.
    I thought he had a little dead arm period around that time last year. Happens.

  13. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Chapel Hill NC
    Posts
    3,262

    Re: Someone maybe forgotten...

    ^I know, def saw hthe dead arm, but his body language, to me, showed disapointment and seemed p'ed he didn't get the recognition, not just arm, but seemed more mental to me.
    UNC Tar Heels 2009 National Champions 5 time NCAA Champs
    57, 82, 93, 05, 09
    Go Heels!!!!!


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25