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Thread: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    22 AROLDIS CHAPMAN LHP, REDS
    Best Tool: Fastball.
    BA Grade: 80.
    Opening
    Day Age: 22 ETA: Mid-2010

    43 TODD FRAZIER OF/2B/3B, REDS
    Best Tool: Power.
    BA Grade: 60.
    Opening
    Day Age: 24 ETA: Mid-2010

    45 YONDER ALONSO 1B, REDS
    Best Tool: Bat.
    BA Grade: 65.
    Opening
    Day Age: 22 ETA:2011

    72 MIKE LEAKE RHP, REDS
    Best Tool: Command.
    BA Grade: 70.
    Opening
    Day Age: 22 ETA: 2011

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...10/269553.html

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    Interesting to see Leake at "just" 70 on command. I wonder what 80 looks like.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    I was surprised that one of Chris Heisey and Travis Wood didn't make the top 100.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I was surprised that one of Chris Heisey and Travis Wood didn't make the top 100.
    I wasn't. Heisey is not a spring chicken, doesn't have inspiring tools and has had 1 great stretch of 250 at bats in AA.

    With Wood, his lack of an above average fastball probably doomed him. BA tends to give a little more weight to a fastball than the whole package.

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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    There's a few players on that list who I would take Wood, Heisey, and even Francisco over. Most notably, Josh Vitters, who continues to be overrated. Honestly, I don't see the difference between Francisco and Vitters. Both have plus power, questionable defensive skills, and bad plate discipline. Not sure why Vitters is ranked so high while Francisco isn't in the top 100. The Cubs placed five prospects in the top 100 - it's pretty obvious that Jim Callis had a strong influence on the list.

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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I wasn't. Heisey is not a spring chicken, doesn't have inspiring tools and has had 1 great stretch of 250 at bats in AA.

    With Wood, his lack of an above average fastball probably doomed him. BA tends to give a little more weight to a fastball than the whole package.
    Have to agree, Heisey needs to prove a bit more and Wood, the same.

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post

    With Wood, his lack of an above average fastball probably doomed him. BA tends to give a little more weight to a fastball than the whole package.
    I think you're right but LH starting pitchers are rarely flame throwers. That's what sets Chapman apart from the rest. For every Randy Johnson there's generally two or three guys like Tom Glavine, Jamie Moyer, Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte.

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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I wasn't. Heisey is not a spring chicken, doesn't have inspiring tools and has had 1 great stretch of 250 at bats in AA.

    With Wood, his lack of an above average fastball probably doomed him. BA tends to give a little more weight to a fastball than the whole package.
    A 298 average in 1,700 Ab's over a 4 season span in the minors isn't an impressive stretch? Thats not even taking into account his 369 OBP and 830 OPS. For instance compare that to Joey Votto's minor league stats in three years, take away the power numbers they are very similar and we all know how he turned out.

    Maybe I'm biased here because I know him, but he gets no respect on this board or in genera. I guess you have to watch him play a few games to understand how good he's gonna be. When he makes the club this spring I think you'll understand what Im talking.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Jones1 View Post
    A 298 average in 1,700 Ab's over a 4 season span in the minors isn't an impressive stretch? Thats not even taking into account his 369 OBP and 830 OPS. For instance compare that to Joey Votto's minor league stats in three years, take away the power numbers they are very similar and we all know how he turned out.

    Maybe I'm biased here because I know him, but he gets no respect on this board or in genera. I guess you have to watch him play a few games to understand how good he's gonna be. When he makes the club this spring I think you'll understand what Im talking.
    You might be biased.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Jones1 View Post
    A 298 average in 1,700 Ab's over a 4 season span in the minors isn't an impressive stretch? Thats not even taking into account his 369 OBP and 830 OPS. For instance compare that to Joey Votto's minor league stats in three years, take away the power numbers they are very similar and we all know how he turned out.

    Maybe I'm biased here because I know him, but he gets no respect on this board or in genera. I guess you have to watch him play a few games to understand how good he's gonna be. When he makes the club this spring I think you'll understand what Im talking.
    You didn't seem to address a single thing I said about him though. I said he didn't have a single inspiring tool. And he doesn't. Heisey has 4 solid tools and an above average one with his speed. That makes him a pretty good player. But scouts and scouting reports aren't going to glow on guys that are good at everything but not really great at anything and on prospect lists that is going to hurt a guy's chance of being ranked high.

    As for watching Heisey play.... I have seen him play about 100 times.

    As far as his impressive stats, I would argue that he has been good all the way up the ladder, but he was never really impressive until he got to AA this season. When he left, he went back to being a good player rather than the great one his numbers in AA suggested. Its not a rip on the guy, he can play ball. He just isn't going to be a super star like his AA numbers may have suggested when looking at them alone.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Jones1 View Post
    A 298 average in 1,700 Ab's over a 4 season span in the minors isn't an impressive stretch? Thats not even taking into account his 369 OBP and 830 OPS. For instance compare that to Joey Votto's minor league stats in three years, take away the power numbers they are very similar and we all know how he turned out.

    Maybe I'm biased here because I know him, but he gets no respect on this board or in genera. I guess you have to watch him play a few games to understand how good he's gonna be. When he makes the club this spring I think you'll understand what Im talking.
    Oh he gets respect all right, some would argue and say he gets too much. Of course I am one who tends to give him plenty of respect, at least since he made his adjustment last season. But all that said his talent level isn't that of a star and that is the list we are discussing here. Then again you make a fair point about Votto, no one thought he'd be this good. Maybe that is why some are waiting for the other shoe to drop on him, I'm not so sure it will. Of course the difference in power numbers is something you can't just take away from Votto, that is part of why he is a budding star. Likewise a good reason Heisey should be a solid regular but not a star.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    Baseball America's writers held a five round (11 picks per round) mock draft featuring the top prospects in the game. Three Reds were chosen in the top 55:

    3 30 Cooper Aroldis Chapman LHP CIN
    He may be riskier than some other picks around here, but his stuff can be as good as anyone not named Strasburg.

    4 34 Glassey Mike Leake RHP CIN
    I may have reached a little for Leake, but with the back-to-back picks, I had to grab guys I really wanted. I love Leake's combination of stuff, command and makeup. He's a safe bet to make it to the big leagues quickly and has No. 2 upside.

    5 50 Fitt Todd Frazier OF/2B/3B CIN
    Frazier can really hit, and he's a gamer. No matter what position he lands at, he'll produce in the majors for a long time—and soon.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...10/269596.html

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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    I'm more surprised by Wood's being left off than Heisey's. Doesn't mean I think Wood's a top 100 prospect but he is a lefty who had about as good a season as any starter in the minors last year.

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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I'm more surprised by Wood's being left off than Heisey's. Doesn't mean I think Wood's a top 100 prospect but he is a lefty who had about as good a season as any starter in the minors last year.
    Actually he was the MiLB AA pitcher of the year. It would count for something ya'd think...

    Wood is vastly underrated IMO. He has produced solid if not spectacular numbers at ever single level of the minors.

    His rookie league stats were:

    2 - 0 with a 1.29 ERA in 14 games and 49 Innings

    His first full season stats at Dayton were:

    27 starts 140 Innings 3.66 ERA

    On a Pitching staff that included Cueto, Fisher, Ondrusek, Valiquette and Jeff Stevens who brought us Phillips...

    The lineup included Bruce, Denove, Tatum, Janish and Rosales.

    Alot of 40 Man Roster talent on that 2006 team.

    IMO the 90 Inning jump in workload from 2005 to 2006 is what did his arm in for those 2 years in a row.

    In 2007 he started 12 games and had a very weak line of:

    12 starts 46 Inn and a 4.86 ERA

    In 2008 he did very well as a repeat in Sarasota...

    9 starts 47 Innings 2.70 ERA

    We all know how bad he was at Chattanooga...

    17 starts 80 Innings 7.09 ERA

    Arm fatigue lead to bad mechanics and lead to quite a few MPH lost off his fastball and not giving his Plus Plus change the same affect.

    One more year removed from arm surgery in 2009 and a retooled delivery added 3 to 5MPH back to his fastball (88 to 91) made his change more effective. Lead to a record setting AA season of:

    19 starts 119 Innings 1.21 ERA

    Followed by a solid AAA debut:

    8 starts 49 Innings 3.14 ERA

    I really believe he became a pitcher last year for the first time in his career. I see no reason with the offense he has behind him this year in AAA as well as other AAA Veterans in the Rotation with him (Lehr, Lecure, Klinker, Maloney) He won't feel the pressure of being an ace and will be able to relax and instead of trying to be too fine with his pitches, he can just pitch.

    His stuff translates well IMO to the Reds staff in 2011.

    With 4 fireball arms in Cueto, Bailey, Volquez and Chapman... a soft tossing lefty could be a perfect compliment to the staff. Think Tom Browning on a staff of Rijo, Jackson and Armstrong.

    A rotation of:

    Cueto
    Volquez
    Chapman
    Bailey
    Wood

    has the "potential" to develop into a top 3 rotation in baseball.
    Last edited by nemesis; 02-23-2010 at 03:12 PM.
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  15. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's top 100 prospects

    Vitters is two years younger than Fransisco, has yet to be moved off 3B, and came with a very high pedigree. BA incorporates a lot of qualitative info in their rankings and Vitters has had less time to show off his warts and tarnish scouts' opinion of his potential.

    Regarding Heisey & Wood, I think we have to remember that 100 prospects really isn't all that much when you're talking about 30 teams' minor league systems. That's just over 3 guys per team and only 3 teams had more than the Reds' 4.

    It doesn't take more than 1 or 2 big warts (Heisey's age and lack of a standout skill, for example) to keep you off the list. If you were to do 101-200, I think you'd find 5 or 6 Reds. Only 9 of the top 100 were 24 or older and only 14 were 6th round picks or later.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 02-23-2010 at 02:50 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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