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Thread: Keys for the 2010 Reds

  1. #1
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Keys for the 2010 Reds

    Now that Walt has put together a decent team from A to Z I have been thinking of what is key if the Reds are going to compete for a playoff spot.
    I came up with three things I feel are the most important.

    1. Health. Pretty true for every team but always at the top of the list. I sigh when I think what a healthy Edison would have done for this years team.

    2. The team has a lot of solid players & a few above average players (Arroyo, Cordero, Rolen, Phillips). However we have only one true star: Votto. For the 2010 team to rise up and win 90 games we are going to have to see several guys step up to be star players. Candidates? IMO Bailey, Bruce & Cueto. All have good minor league pedigrees. All have experience in the bigs.

    3. 5th starter production. As I said above the team is solid but seems to have a lot of decent yet unspectacular players. So we can't afford a pitcher with an ERA of 5.50 starting one out of every five games. Lets say the 5th starter stinks and we go 11-21 in the 32 games he starts. To win 90 games we would have to go 79-51 in the games started by the top four starters. Thats a tall order IMO with the pretty average offense we expect.

    Thoughts?
    .

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  3. #2
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    1, A repeat for Joey Votto and a similar year from Jay Bruce to hopefully provide enough offense on a team which really doesn't have much else to get excited about when they are hitting.

    2. The 4 starters pitching to their potential which would make Homer Bailey a Cy Young candidate and Johnny Cueto a strong number 2. Its probably too soon for Chapman, which means Bailey is really the only guy capable fo becoming a number 1.

    Funny a few years ago we were all pointing to Bruce, Bailey, Cueto and Votto as the top prospects to carry the future. Its still true today with Chapman, Volquez, and maybe Leake and Alonso also joining that group in the next year or two. Many of the others have some promise and success would help, but they are all interchangeable parts IMO and wouldn't qualify as "key."
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  4. #3
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    1. Health

    2. Continued defensive excellence

    3. Starting pitching

    4. Out avoidance

    5. Better jokes in chat
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  5. #4
    Quiet Reverence Vada Pinson Fan's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    If Votto continues to OPS at +.900 and if Bruce can join him at that clip and add Philips, Rolen at .800 plus as you mentioned good health from the starters, starting staff and bullpen and an unexpected good to great year from Stubbs, Bailey and Hernandez then we have something special! Harang has to come through from two lousy years. Alot to have happen but you just never know!!!

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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    Bruce. He needs to take a big step toward monsterdom. If he's Austin Kerns II, all the tinkering around the edges won't matter.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    If Bruce goes all Matt Holliday, the Reds have better players than the Cardinals almost across the board.

    If he's more Matt Diaz, the Reds will have problems.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
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  8. #7
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    1. Are the Reds getting an '06/'07 Aaron Harang (fringe Cy Young candidate) or an '08/'09 Aaron Harang (fringe #4 who made you wonder what else he picked up in the Bay Area besides pitching tips).

    2. Can Bronson Arroyo pitch well out of the gate, or is he going to wait until the games don't matter before he decides to turn it on?

    3. Will Homer Bailey continue to progress as a major league starter, or was his success a product of late-season lineups and a bit of luck?

    4. Will Jay Bruce become the player everyone projected him to be as a minor leaguer, or will he continue on the express train to Larsonville with his ~.300 OBP and poor LH/RH splits?

    5. Can Drew Stubbs produce enough at the plate to make him a net positive value with his defense in CF?

    6. Will the bullpen continue to be effective, specifically Arthur Rhodes (does he have 1 more good year left in him), Nick Masset (was 2009 an illusion, or is he that effective?), and Francisco Cordero?

    and, as always:

    7. Is the team going to stay healthy?
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  9. #8
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    Scoring more runs than the opponents.

    Simple, almost too simple, but this offense borders on anemic. Its going to take every living up to their hype and more for this team to truly contend.

    Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
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  10. #9
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    1. Health is always one of the biggest keys. Hopefully the Reds can stay a lot healthier this season than last year when they were just devastated by injuries. We need 130+ games out of Scott Rolen and 150+ from Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. Same with Brandon Phillips.

    2. The return of Aaron Harang to his 2005-2007 form. Harang wasn't bad last year (102 ERA+) but the Reds need him to stay healthy and get back to throwing 200+ innings with an above average ERA. Hopefully the Reds can resist running him out there after a rain delay or on two days rest.

    3. Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Johnny Cueto. I hate to put even more pressure on them but all three are huge keys to the Reds success in 2010. If Bailey and Bruce carry over their success from late 2009, and if Cueto can pitch like he did for most of 2009 except for about 8-10 starts in the middle of the season, then the Reds could be looking at 86+ wins, IMO.

    4. Left field. Can someone step up and win the the left field job? I'd love nothing more than to see a guy like Wladimir Balentien start to realize his potential and win the job. He's got the potential to be a 25-30 HR and .850 OPS hitter. If he were to come anywhere close to those numbers then the Reds offense should be well above average.

  11. #10
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    1. Wladimir Balentien having a good season.

    2. The top two spots in the lineup getting on base.

    3. Brandon Phillips having his best season ever vs. RHPs.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  12. #11
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    1. Wladimir Balentien having a good season.

    2. The top two spots in the lineup getting on base.

    3. Brandon Phillips having his best season ever vs. RHPs.
    Holy crap do my eyes deceive me, M2 is back? I was just getting ready to put out a WAHT M2 thread. Glad to see ya.

    On the topic at hand I gotta 1st ask Keys for what? Keys for a winning season or Keys to deep playoffs? I think we are likely to do one but not the other obviously. And since I believe Bruce isn't an "if" but a sure thing, I am gonna go a different route here. My expectations for most guys/spots are basically what they done last year without a ton of variation. The others are Bruce (who I expect to have a great season) and a few wildcards, those being Bailey, Gomes, Stubbs and Balentein. I think i'm on the fence with the latter 3 leaning towards them not doing real well. Bailey is the one guy whom I don't really know what to expect so I think if he does well and the bench improves as we go forward as well as the decision makers not wasting a ton of time bringing up guys (Heisey, Frazier etc.) when others struggle then I feel good about the season being a winning one.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  13. #12
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    1. Wladimir Balentien having a good season.

    2. The top two spots in the lineup getting on base.

    3. Brandon Phillips having his best season ever vs. RHPs.
    Good to see you around here again.

    I agree with ya on Balentien. He doesn't get as much recognition as some of the others in the left field race, but he's a darkhorse to win the job, IMO. He's got the potential to be a 25-30 HR, .850 OPS bat with slightly above average defense. If he can start to realize some of his potential then the Reds offense could be pretty good, IMO.

  14. #13
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    On the topic at hand I gotta 1st ask Keys for what? Keys for a winning season or Keys to deep playoffs?
    In the first post Will said keys to competing for a playoff spot. Obviously a lot of stuff has to go right for that to happen, but my take is the thing most holding back the Reds is a horrific offense. The team needs to score about 750 runs if it wants to truly compete.

    The top of the lineup is suspect in the OB department, which means big seasons from the middle of the lineup will be necessary. Votto will be hard-pressed to match his 2009 season, but he'll still be good. Bruce should be better. Rolen should be steady, but not overwhelming. Phillips, like I mentioned, needs to have his best season vs. RHPs. And the Reds aren't getting any meaningful production from the catchers.

    That leaves LF, and Balentien strikes me as the one guy who could be a serious difference maker out there. I'm not saying he will be, but him realizing his potential is 100% of what the team most needs.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #14
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    In the first post Will said keys to competing for a playoff spot. Obviously a lot of stuff has to go right for that to happen, but my take is the thing most holding back the Reds is a horrific offense. The team needs to score about 750 runs if it wants to truly compete.

    The top of the lineup is suspect in the OB department, which means big seasons from the middle of the lineup will be necessary. Votto will be hard-pressed to match his 2009 season, but he'll still be good. Bruce should be better. Rolen should be steady, but not overwhelming. Phillips, like I mentioned, needs to have his best season vs. RHPs. And the Reds aren't getting any meaningful production from the catchers.

    That leaves LF, and Balentien strikes me as the one guy who could be a serious difference maker out there. I'm not saying he will be, but him realizing his potential is 100% of what the team most needs.
    Ah ok thanks M2, somehow I managed to gloss over that not once but twice, brain fart I guess.

    I'd agree on your points but I also believe if Homer doesn't pan out the offense would have to do something extraordinary that they probably are not quite capable of. With the pitching and defense in place I like our chances of fighting for a playoff spot into September.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  16. #15
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Keys for the 2010 Reds

    The two main keys are..

    1. Score as many runs as possible.

    2. Allow opponents as few runs as possible.


    To be honest I'm kinda worried about #1.


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