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Thread: The price of success

  1. #61
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    Back to the question at hand.

    I am not a big Dusty as manager fan. But I haven't really been a fan of Reds managers, period. From Sparky to Rose to Lou to Davey to Jack to Dusty, all of them aggravated me pretty much to equal degrees.

    My philosophy about managers is that as long as they are not you, they will make many decisions that you disagree about. They will have huge holes in their managerial philosophy that will drive you crazy.

    Sparky with his too quick hook, Rose loved to bunt too much, Lou needed that LOOGY even if it was Scott Ruskin, Jack did very little in game managing, and Dusty likes his #1 and 2 hitters to be fast, and refuses to adapt to the newer stats.

    But all of these guys did win, even with their faults. I think with managers, you just have to take them as a whole entity, warts and all. They all have warts, but as long as they have a solid long term winning philosophy and plan for the team, I'm okay with them. And despite what some people say, I think Dusty does have a solid winning philosophy. It's not one I would adopt, but it is one that has worked quite well for him.

    So if his philosophy, no matter how much it drives me crazy, wins, then I have no problem with him, especially since I am sure the next guy will drive me crazy as well.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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  3. #62
    Mr.Redlegs is my homeboy Eric_the_Red's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Sure. The thing is, every manager lets his guy throw 50 pitches. Just about all guys go 90 on a consistent basis. 100 is probably the 'magic' number because its where most managers start to make moves or preparation for moves.
    Is that because of the manager or conventional wisdom saying 100 is the "magic number"? (The same wisdom that says "RBI guys" bat 4th and fast guys leadoff.)

  4. #63
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_the_Red View Post
    Is that because of the manager or conventional wisdom saying 100 is the "magic number"? (The same wisdom that says "RBI guys" bat 4th and fast guys leadoff.)
    Its because it has been shown that around pitch 100 guys start losing effectiveness.

  5. #64
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Its because it has been shown that around pitch 100 guys start losing effectiveness.
    Where? Not doubting you, I just have never seen any research on it.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  6. #65
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    I am just going to link you to that PAP article on BP. There are other studies out there, but that one is very easy to find.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1477

  7. #66
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    To add more to the pitcher conversation within this thread - I found this article interesting on ESPN.com, these two quotes in particular:
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/column...tim&id=4359938

    Hershiser said, "Pitch counts have crept into the heads of managers, pitching coaches and doctors in part because of CYA, cover your ass. When you take an MRI, the look after 50 pitches looks different than the look after 100, and people put numbers to them. No manager wants to lose his job because he got someone hurt. So he stays within the cutoff number."

    Duncan said he "doesn't give a damn about what people say about pitch counts because I know the individual pitcher. [Chris] Carpenter threw 114 pitches the other night. It was his first time over 110, but we're aware of his history with his surgeries. What we've done with him and Adam [Wainwright] is to take their bullpen sessions and warm-up sessions and cut them in half. Where they might have thrown 75 pitches before a game, now they throw 40. They're not wasting pitches. That's why we're not reluctant to go 120."

  8. #67
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    What we've done with him and Adam [Wainwright] is to take their bullpen sessions and warm-up sessions and cut them in half. Where they might have thrown 75 pitches before a game, now they throw 40. They're not wasting pitches. That's why we're not reluctant to go 120."
    Do you think that maybe PAP is somewhat flawed due to a quote like this?

  9. #68
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    If Dusty can guide this team to the playoffs, he can have my son as an indentured servant. Yeah, i'd be for keeping him around.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #69
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I am just going to link you to that PAP article on BP. There are other studies out there, but that one is very easy to find.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1477
    Thank you.

    I know that one, and it concludes that the 120 pitch mark is the one that should be used.

    "The implications for pitcher usage are rather straightforward; starting pitchers should, in general, be held to 121 or fewer pitches"

    And if you look at all the graphs, it shows that the 120 pitch mark is the one teams should be worried about, and that is only in terms of short term effectiveness.

    In fact, here is a quote that no one ever mentions from that study:

    "We should interject a few notes of caution here. First is that we haven't yet established what PAP was originally designed to measure -- risk of injury from overuse. We've been investigating a related (and initially easier to assess) phenomenon -- short-term ineffectiveness following high pitch count outings. PAP^3 should not, at this point, be used as a proven indicator of health risks. At best, it should be taken as an early warning indicator that a pitcher is being pushed too hard. It says nothing about whether a pitcher can fully bounce back to his previously established level of performance given enough rest and a more sensible workload. "

    I actually never read that before, and have much more respect for BP and for PAP now.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  11. #70
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Do you think that maybe PAP is somewhat flawed due to a quote like this?
    Well its somewhat flawed like every other stat in baseball. I 100% believe that pitch 105 in the 7th inning for Homer Bailey is less stressful than pitch 105 in the 7th inning for Johnny Cueto is. Just like pitch 105 for a reliever would be more stressful. Some guys are better suited to handle pitch #XYZ than others.

    I don't believe we are close to understanding even 25% of what leads to pitchers injuries and we will never be able to fully prevent them. But I do believe that PAP has its uses, especially when used against the rest of baseball. It is not the be all, end all. No stat truly is. There are faults within every stat out there. I still find a lot of them useful in telling us things about players and even some about managers. It really concerns me that Dusty Baker's PAP as a team is 42% higher than the average in MLB since he has been with the Reds. That isn't a small discrepancy in the slightest. That is a giant leap with the help of also being on the moon with less gravity.

  12. #71
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    I find Teh Dusty to be an annoying on many levels. I'd be much happier if a different manager donned the goofy 58-year-old-man-uni.

    All that said, I far and away rather the Reds be relevant than remove the Teh Dusty from my team. I'd much rather have a reason to care about the team again (i.e. winning baseball) than satisfy my subjective view of what should happen to the manager.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 03-02-2010 at 04:15 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  13. #72
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well its somewhat flawed like every other stat in baseball. I 100% believe that pitch 105 in the 7th inning for Homer Bailey is less stressful than pitch 105 in the 7th inning for Johnny Cueto is. Just like pitch 105 for a reliever would be more stressful. Some guys are better suited to handle pitch #XYZ than others.

    I don't believe we are close to understanding even 25% of what leads to pitchers injuries and we will never be able to fully prevent them. But I do believe that PAP has its uses, especially when used against the rest of baseball. It is not the be all, end all. No stat truly is. There are faults within every stat out there. I still find a lot of them useful in telling us things about players and even some about managers. It really concerns me that Dusty Baker's PAP as a team is 42% higher than the average in MLB since he has been with the Reds. That isn't a small discrepancy in the slightest. That is a giant leap with the help of also being on the moon with less gravity.
    For a stat with this many flaws, I can't see how we can use it to chastize a manager.

  14. #73
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    For a stat with this many flaws, I can't see how we can use it to chastize a manager.
    Because we have to prove Dusty is a bad bad man in order to justify our preconceived notions and make us feel like we are smart.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  15. #74
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    For a stat with this many flaws, I can't see how we can use it to chastize a manager.
    Because despite it having its flaws it shows us that Dusty allowed his pitchers to go much deeper into games than the average manager? Again, since PAP only assigns points for pitches 101 and beyond we know what they are referring to. Using PAP, Dusty has accumulated 42% more PAP than the average manager in baseball. That is a lot of pitches 101+ that our guys throw that other teams guys don't. If that doesn't concern you, fine. It concerns the crap out of me.

  16. #75
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The price of success

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Because we have to prove Dusty is a bad bad man in order to justify our preconceived notions and make us feel like we are smart.
    Dusty seems like a great guy, just one who is misguided in how to use a pitching staff. If someone were to show me the data that says my preconceived notion that Dusty Baker uses his starting pitchers longer than other managers, I would easily be able to accept that. However every ounce of data out there suggests that he does indeed use his starting pitchers longer than other managers do.


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