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Thread: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

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  1. #1
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    Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=10142

    1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
    2. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
    3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
    4. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
    5. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
    6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
    7. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
    8. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
    9. Buster Posey, C, Giants
    10. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
    11. Chris Carter, 1B, Athletics
    12. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B, Mariners
    13. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays
    14. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Red Sox
    15. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
    16. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays
    17. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
    18. Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles
    19. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
    20. Michael Taylor, OF, Athletics
    21. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants
    22. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Rockies
    23. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies
    24. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies
    25. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers
    26. Aaron Hicks, of, Twins
    27. Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers
    28. Derek Norris, C, Nationals
    29. Donovan Tate, OF, Padres
    30. Casey Kelly, RHP, Red Sox
    31. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs
    32. Casey Crosby, LHP, Tigers
    33. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
    34. Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
    35. Miguel Sano, SS, Twins
    36. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals
    37. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
    38. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
    39. Josh Bell, 3B, Orioles
    40. Chris Withrow, RHP, Dodgers
    41. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
    42. Alex Colome, LHP, Rays
    43. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians
    44. Brett Wallace, 1B, Blue Jays
    45. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves
    46. Ben Revere, OF, Twins
    47. Simon Castro, RHP, Padres
    48. Jennry Mejia, RHP, Mets
    49. Austin Jackson, of, Tigers
    50. Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins
    51. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
    52. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks
    53. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
    54. Aaron Crow, RHP, Royals
    55. Dan Hudson, RHP, White Sox
    56. Tim Beckham, SS, Rays
    57. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Tigers
    58. Josh Reddick, OF, Red Sox
    59. Mike Leake, RHP, Reds
    60. Drew Storen, RHP, Nationals
    61. Jared Mitchell, OF, White Sox
    62. Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners
    63. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Cubs
    64. James Darnell, 3B, Padres
    65. Wilson Ramos, C, Twins
    66. Michael Inoa, RHP, Athletics
    67. Todd Frazier, 2B, Reds
    68. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Rangers
    69. Reid Brignac, SS, Rays
    70. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Orioles
    71. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Twins
    72. Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox
    73. Zach Britton, RHP, Orioles
    74. Jaff Decker, OF, Padres
    75. Tony Sanchez, C, Pirates
    76. Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox
    77. Alex White, RHP, Indians
    78. Phillippe Aumount, RHP, Phillies
    79. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
    80. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets
    81. Hank Conger, C, Angels
    82. Jason Knapp, RHP, Indians
    83. Wil Myers, C, Royals
    84. Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
    85. Brandon Allen, 1B, Diamondbacks
    86. Grant Green, SS, Athletics
    87. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets
    88. Zach Wheeler, RHP, Giants
    89. Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels
    90. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates
    91. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Indians
    92. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels
    93. Tim Melville, RHP, Royals
    94. Gabriel Noriega, SS, Mariners
    95. Fabio Martinez, RHP, Angels
    96. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
    97. Jio Mier, SS, Astros
    98. Ethan Martin, RHP, Dodgers
    99. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brewers
    100. Jason Castro, C, Astros
    101. Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals

  2. #2
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    still think Alonso should be rated #1 prospect in the organization Doug?




    JK of course... Really can't believe he's not on that list... Had to check it twice...
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    still think Alonso should be rated #1 prospect in the organization Doug?




    JK of course... Really can't believe he's not on that list... Had to check it twice...
    I checked it a few times, then did a search for both Reds and Alonso in firefox for spelling errors. How one goes from a 5 start prospect in 2009 to beating the crap out of the FSL to a wrist injury to a 3 star prospect and not inside a Top 101 prospect list is mind boggling to me.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I checked it a few times, then did a search for both Reds and Alonso in firefox for spelling errors. How one goes from a 5 start prospect in 2009 to beating the crap out of the FSL to a wrist injury to a 3 star prospect and not inside a Top 101 prospect list is mind boggling to me.
    The group at baseball prospectus that decided Alonso is not a Top-100 prospect has lost their minds.

    They've just lost all credibility with me.

    They obvioulsy didn't "watch" him last season, or they wouldn't rank him so ridiculously low. It's OK to be wrong about a couple of guys, but not a guy who "starred" in College, was drafted exactly where he should have been in the draft, and has done nothing to change his original projections other than have an injury that caused him to miss considerable time and approach his hitting slightly differently from normal.

    It all doesn't matter, as a year from now he'll be playing in the Majors and making everyone who "thought" he had no power or couldn't hit look like fools for "guessing" on his abilities instead of taking a look at him in person.

    If it was my job to work at baseball prospectus, there's no way I don't view every one of the Top-250 prospects in person, who play baseball East of the Mississippi river. And, if I did watch him and can't recognize the talent that makes up Yonder Alonso, I'd get out of the business forever, because I obviously don't know what I'm talking about.

    Yonder Alonso=Jack Clark

    Alonso was, is and will always be an RBI-Machine. At the end of every season, there's only one thing I'll be interested in from Alonso, and that's how many RBI's did he get. The answer will always be "an inordinately high number compared to the number of opportunities he had".
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 03-03-2010 at 05:11 PM.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    The group at baseball prospectus that decided Alonso is not a Top-100 prospect has lost their minds.
    No group think at BP. Its just Kevin Goldstein over at BP doing their rankings.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    The group at baseball prospectus that decided Alonso is not a Top-100 prospect has lost their minds.

    They've just lost all credibility with me.

    They obvioulsy didn't "watch" him last season, or they wouldn't rank him so ridiculously low. It's OK to be wrong about a couple of guys, but not a guy who "starred" in College, was drafted exactly where he should have been in the draft, and has done nothing to change his original projections other than have an injury that caused him to miss considerable time and approach his hitting slightly differently from normal.

    It all doesn't matter, as a year from now he'll be playing in the Majors and making everyone who "thought" he had no power or couldn't hit look like fools for "guessing" on his abilities instead of taking a look at him in person.

    If it was my job to work at baseball prospectus, there's no way I don't view every one of the Top-250 prospects in person, who play baseball East of the Mississippi river. And, if I did watch him and can't recognize the talent that makes up Yonder Alonso, I'd get out of the business forever, because I obviously don't know what I'm talking about.

    Yonder Alonso=Jack Clark

    Alonso was, is and will always be an RBI-Machine. At the end of every season, there's only one thing I'll be interested in from Alonso, and that's how many RBI's did he get. The answer will always be "an inordinately high number compared to the number of opportunities he had".
    1. I'm pretty sure someone at BP has seen Alonso play multiple times. Goldstein likely has seen all of them live. If he hasn't, he's at least seen video. (If not, he has no business doing the rankings, I agree.)
    2. It doesn't matter where someone is drafted; it matters how they produce and how scouts foresee them playing in the future.
    3. So if a person sees him in person and they still don't view him as a top prospect, they're simply wrong because his skills are that apparent? Hyperbole.
    4. Not only that, if someone disagrees with you, they're so wrong they should get out of the sport? Ridiculous.
    5. Yonder Alonso= Jack Clark? Supposedly, Alonso's best tool is his ability to hit for average. Clark struggled to hit for average for most of his career. The comparison is flawed.
    6. RBI is a team-dependent stat that has little bearing on the talent of a prospect. Your assertion that he is an RBI machine is, at best, a minor point, and, most likely, a nonstarter for every serious prospect guru in the business.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    1. I'm pretty sure someone at BP has seen Alonso play multiple times. Goldstein likely has seen all of them live. If he hasn't, he's at least seen video. (If not, he has no business doing the rankings, I agree.)
    2. It doesn't matter where someone is drafted; it matters how they produce and how scouts foresee them playing in the future.
    3. So if a person sees him in person and they still don't view him as a top prospect, they're simply wrong because his skills are that apparent? Hyperbole.
    4. Not only that, if someone disagrees with you, they're so wrong they should get out of the sport? Ridiculous.
    5. Yonder Alonso= Jack Clark? Supposedly, Alonso's best tool is his ability to hit for average. Clark struggled to hit for average for most of his career. The comparison is flawed.
    6. RBI is a team-dependent stat that has little bearing on the talent of a prospect. Your assertion that he is an RBI machine is, at best, a minor point, and, most likely, a nonstarter for every serious prospect guru in the business.
    Jack Clark's best attributes were his ability to deliver RBI's at an improbable rate (as he had no one else on the team with any sort of power and was constantly walked), while being able to get on-base on a regular basis. He just wasn't given much to hit. It's hard to hit for average when they won't pitch to you. Alonso's best tool is his ability to knock guys in regardless of the situation, exactly like Jack Clark. Their careers will be 30 years apart, so the overall stats will be much different, but the similarities in being the "RBI-producer" on his team wherever he plays will be the same.

    I addressed the "rbi is a team-dependent stat" in my original post. I said that they are "RBI-machines" because they'll knock in more per opportunity. And, it's not just "total RBI's", but it's when the RBI's are being knocked in during a game. How often does the RBI tie the game or put the team ahead. This is the type of player Jack Clark was and Yonder Alonso is.

    Your point #3 is correct. If you can't recognize Alonzo's skills after having watched him play in person, you should get out of the business of giving analyses on players. Because you're definitely lacking the skills to do so properly.

    Your point #2 is correct. Of course it doesn't matter where someone is drafted to determine where they rank now, but I said that Alonzo's done nothing to lower his status of having been drafted where he was in his short time in the minors so far. Where he was drafted does carry weight (unless you were drafted by Al Davis), when the draft was so recent.

    Again, though, it's all a moot point. One year from now, Goldstein will be eating his words about Alonso, and my point will have been made. If Goldstein has seen Alonso play, then he's just not very good at scouting. Alonso's abilities are very obvious.

    The first time I saw Gordan Beckham play a 3-game series in College, he was one of the smallest players on the field, but he played like a Giant. I saw his "intangibles" and hoped right there that he would become a RED. But, I also knew that Jockety liked Left-handed Power and that he was going to make Alonso his first pick as the new G.M. He didn't know yet if he had Left-Handed Power in the new REDS as Votto and Bruce hadn't proved anything yet. The GAB was created for Left-handed Power. If there's any way at all to get Alonso and Votto on the field together Walt's going to figure out how to do it. Alonso is the perfect player to bat behind Votto.

    I'm just tired of hearing people give Alonso a bad wrap because of mis-perceived flaws in his makeup that can only stem from some stats they're reading on a web-site.

    I can't believe that anyone who sees Alsonso doesn't project him as an .800-.850 career OPS player who will usually be in the Top-10 in the Majors for producing RBI's per opportunity.

    Yonder Alonso is the best clutch hitter I've seen in a REDS uniform since Ken Griffey Senior, except Alonso has more power.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    His AFL season, injury, and major questions about his ability to hit LH (not to mention the lesser questions of power and position) would do it for me, though, to be fair, I do think Alonso is a Top 100 prospect.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    It's surprising how few 2b are on that list. Only 4...I guess few players are ever really drafted as primarily 2b, though.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    His AFL season, injury, and major questions about his ability to hit LH (not to mention the lesser questions of power and position) would do it for me, though, to be fair, I do think Alonso is a Top 100 prospect.
    Well his AFL season ties in with the injury. My question is this too - why does Alonso get bumped but Justin Smoak does not? Smoak dealt with an injury this season, hit for far less power despite being in much more hitter friendly leagues (while Alonso was in the worst league in the minors for 80% of his season) and also struggled to hit lefties big time? Smoak hit .214/.301/.325 vs lefties last season. It just confuses me when things like that happen.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    It's pretty funny that Yonder Alonso isn't ranked, nor is Juan Francisco, but the horribly overrated Josh Vitters is #31.

    And if Miguel Angel Sano is #35, then why isn't Yorman Rodriguez ranked?

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    It's pretty funny that Yonder Alonso isn't ranked, nor is Juan Francisco, but the horribly overrated Josh Vitters is #31.

    And if Miguel Angel Sano is #35, then why isn't Yorman Rodriguez ranked?
    Good questions all around.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Here's the depressing part:

    Out of the last 4 drafts, we have one guy in the majors and two guys on the list, none in the top 58. Two of our 1st rounders don't show up and the guy in the majors may or may not have shown up on this list if he was eligible.

    We have also had some uninspiring seasons leading to top half picks in most (all?) of those drafts.

    Sweet.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Here's the depressing part:

    Out of the last 4 drafts, we have one guy in the majors and two guys on the list, none in the top 58. Two of our 1st rounders don't show up and the guy in the majors may or may not have shown up on this list if he was eligible.

    We have also had some uninspiring seasons leading to top half picks in most (all?) of those drafts.

    Sweet.
    Or you could look at it another way - our worst showing on any offseason list had us with 3 Top 75 prospects in baseball despite recent graduations of Cueto, Votto, Stubbs, Bailey and Bruce.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Or you could look at it another way - our worst showing on any offseason list had us with 3 Top 75 prospects in baseball despite recent graduations of Cueto, Votto, Stubbs, Bailey and Bruce.
    I'm not sure how recent some of those grads are.

    I don't think that Stubbs would be very high on the list.

    I am speaking about drafts only.

    We've had better than average draft positioning over the past few years so, all things being equal, we should have better than average performance. 2 draftees in the top 101 sucks.


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