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Thread: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=10142

    1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
    2. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
    3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
    4. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
    5. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
    6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
    7. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
    8. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
    9. Buster Posey, C, Giants
    10. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
    11. Chris Carter, 1B, Athletics
    12. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B, Mariners
    13. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays
    14. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Red Sox
    15. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
    16. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays
    17. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
    18. Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles
    19. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
    20. Michael Taylor, OF, Athletics
    21. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants
    22. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Rockies
    23. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies
    24. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies
    25. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers
    26. Aaron Hicks, of, Twins
    27. Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers
    28. Derek Norris, C, Nationals
    29. Donovan Tate, OF, Padres
    30. Casey Kelly, RHP, Red Sox
    31. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs
    32. Casey Crosby, LHP, Tigers
    33. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
    34. Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
    35. Miguel Sano, SS, Twins
    36. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals
    37. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
    38. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
    39. Josh Bell, 3B, Orioles
    40. Chris Withrow, RHP, Dodgers
    41. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
    42. Alex Colome, LHP, Rays
    43. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians
    44. Brett Wallace, 1B, Blue Jays
    45. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves
    46. Ben Revere, OF, Twins
    47. Simon Castro, RHP, Padres
    48. Jennry Mejia, RHP, Mets
    49. Austin Jackson, of, Tigers
    50. Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins
    51. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
    52. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks
    53. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
    54. Aaron Crow, RHP, Royals
    55. Dan Hudson, RHP, White Sox
    56. Tim Beckham, SS, Rays
    57. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Tigers
    58. Josh Reddick, OF, Red Sox
    59. Mike Leake, RHP, Reds
    60. Drew Storen, RHP, Nationals
    61. Jared Mitchell, OF, White Sox
    62. Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners
    63. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Cubs
    64. James Darnell, 3B, Padres
    65. Wilson Ramos, C, Twins
    66. Michael Inoa, RHP, Athletics
    67. Todd Frazier, 2B, Reds
    68. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Rangers
    69. Reid Brignac, SS, Rays
    70. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Orioles
    71. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Twins
    72. Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox
    73. Zach Britton, RHP, Orioles
    74. Jaff Decker, OF, Padres
    75. Tony Sanchez, C, Pirates
    76. Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox
    77. Alex White, RHP, Indians
    78. Phillippe Aumount, RHP, Phillies
    79. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
    80. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets
    81. Hank Conger, C, Angels
    82. Jason Knapp, RHP, Indians
    83. Wil Myers, C, Royals
    84. Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
    85. Brandon Allen, 1B, Diamondbacks
    86. Grant Green, SS, Athletics
    87. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets
    88. Zach Wheeler, RHP, Giants
    89. Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels
    90. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates
    91. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Indians
    92. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels
    93. Tim Melville, RHP, Royals
    94. Gabriel Noriega, SS, Mariners
    95. Fabio Martinez, RHP, Angels
    96. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
    97. Jio Mier, SS, Astros
    98. Ethan Martin, RHP, Dodgers
    99. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brewers
    100. Jason Castro, C, Astros
    101. Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    still think Alonso should be rated #1 prospect in the organization Doug?




    JK of course... Really can't believe he's not on that list... Had to check it twice...
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    still think Alonso should be rated #1 prospect in the organization Doug?




    JK of course... Really can't believe he's not on that list... Had to check it twice...
    I checked it a few times, then did a search for both Reds and Alonso in firefox for spelling errors. How one goes from a 5 start prospect in 2009 to beating the crap out of the FSL to a wrist injury to a 3 star prospect and not inside a Top 101 prospect list is mind boggling to me.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    His AFL season, injury, and major questions about his ability to hit LH (not to mention the lesser questions of power and position) would do it for me, though, to be fair, I do think Alonso is a Top 100 prospect.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    It's surprising how few 2b are on that list. Only 4...I guess few players are ever really drafted as primarily 2b, though.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    His AFL season, injury, and major questions about his ability to hit LH (not to mention the lesser questions of power and position) would do it for me, though, to be fair, I do think Alonso is a Top 100 prospect.
    Well his AFL season ties in with the injury. My question is this too - why does Alonso get bumped but Justin Smoak does not? Smoak dealt with an injury this season, hit for far less power despite being in much more hitter friendly leagues (while Alonso was in the worst league in the minors for 80% of his season) and also struggled to hit lefties big time? Smoak hit .214/.301/.325 vs lefties last season. It just confuses me when things like that happen.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    It's pretty funny that Yonder Alonso isn't ranked, nor is Juan Francisco, but the horribly overrated Josh Vitters is #31.

    And if Miguel Angel Sano is #35, then why isn't Yorman Rodriguez ranked?

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    It's pretty funny that Yonder Alonso isn't ranked, nor is Juan Francisco, but the horribly overrated Josh Vitters is #31.

    And if Miguel Angel Sano is #35, then why isn't Yorman Rodriguez ranked?
    Good questions all around.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Here's the depressing part:

    Out of the last 4 drafts, we have one guy in the majors and two guys on the list, none in the top 58. Two of our 1st rounders don't show up and the guy in the majors may or may not have shown up on this list if he was eligible.

    We have also had some uninspiring seasons leading to top half picks in most (all?) of those drafts.

    Sweet.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Here's the depressing part:

    Out of the last 4 drafts, we have one guy in the majors and two guys on the list, none in the top 58. Two of our 1st rounders don't show up and the guy in the majors may or may not have shown up on this list if he was eligible.

    We have also had some uninspiring seasons leading to top half picks in most (all?) of those drafts.

    Sweet.
    Or you could look at it another way - our worst showing on any offseason list had us with 3 Top 75 prospects in baseball despite recent graduations of Cueto, Votto, Stubbs, Bailey and Bruce.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Or you could look at it another way - our worst showing on any offseason list had us with 3 Top 75 prospects in baseball despite recent graduations of Cueto, Votto, Stubbs, Bailey and Bruce.
    I'm not sure how recent some of those grads are.

    I don't think that Stubbs would be very high on the list.

    I am speaking about drafts only.

    We've had better than average draft positioning over the past few years so, all things being equal, we should have better than average performance. 2 draftees in the top 101 sucks.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    You can't get too worked up over these lists. They say little that is definitive.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I'm not sure how recent some of those grads are.

    I don't think that Stubbs would be very high on the list.

    I am speaking about drafts only.

    We've had better than average draft positioning over the past few years so, all things being equal, we should have better than average performance. 2 draftees in the top 101 sucks.
    Frazier, Alonso and Leake have all been ranked as Top 50 prospects by other lists this offseason alone. Our last 3 drafts have provided Top 50 prospects.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Doug (Cincinnati): So you are down on Alonso for not showing power (despite slugging nearly .500 in the FSL) but love Justin Smoak for slugging .440 in the PCL and Texas League combined, while hitting lefties just as bad as Alonso did in 2009? Care to go into that one?

    Kevin Goldstein: Sure. Smoak is a much, much better pure HITTER than Alonso, and more scouts believe in Smoak's power blossoming than those that believe in Alonso's.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    I think Justin Smoak is going to be Ted Williams if KG is right because all I have ever seen written or talked about with Alonso is that the guy is a pure hitter. If Smoak is a much, much better pure hitter than Alonso the guy should be ranked #1 overall.


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