Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

[dougdirt]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=10142

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
2. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
4. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
5. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
7. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
8. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
9. Buster Posey, C, Giants
10. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
11. Chris Carter, 1B, Athletics
12. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B, Mariners
13. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays
14. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Red Sox
15. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
16. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays
17. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
18. Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles
19. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
20. Michael Taylor, OF, Athletics
21. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants
22. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Rockies
23. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies
24. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies
25. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers
26. Aaron Hicks, of, Twins
27. Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers
28. Derek Norris, C, Nationals
29. Donovan Tate, OF, Padres
30. Casey Kelly, RHP, Red Sox
31. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs
32. Casey Crosby, LHP, Tigers
33. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
34. Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
35. Miguel Sano, SS, Twins
36. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals
37. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
38. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
39. Josh Bell, 3B, Orioles
40. Chris Withrow, RHP, Dodgers
41. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
42. Alex Colome, LHP, Rays
43. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians
44. Brett Wallace, 1B, Blue Jays
45. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves
46. Ben Revere, OF, Twins
47. Simon Castro, RHP, Padres
48. Jennry Mejia, RHP, Mets
49. Austin Jackson, of, Tigers
50. Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins
51. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
52. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks
53. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
54. Aaron Crow, RHP, Royals
55. Dan Hudson, RHP, White Sox
56. Tim Beckham, SS, Rays
57. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Tigers
58. Josh Reddick, OF, Red Sox
59. Mike Leake, RHP, Reds
60. Drew Storen, RHP, Nationals
61. Jared Mitchell, OF, White Sox
62. Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners
63. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Cubs
64. James Darnell, 3B, Padres
65. Wilson Ramos, C, Twins
66. Michael Inoa, RHP, Athletics
67. Todd Frazier, 2B, Reds
68. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Rangers
69. Reid Brignac, SS, Rays
70. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Orioles
71. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Twins
72. Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox
73. Zach Britton, RHP, Orioles
74. Jaff Decker, OF, Padres
75. Tony Sanchez, C, Pirates
76. Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox
77. Alex White, RHP, Indians
78. Phillippe Aumount, RHP, Phillies
79. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
80. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets
81. Hank Conger, C, Angels
82. Jason Knapp, RHP, Indians
83. Wil Myers, C, Royals
84. Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
85. Brandon Allen, 1B, Diamondbacks
86. Grant Green, SS, Athletics
87. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets
88. Zach Wheeler, RHP, Giants
89. Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels
90. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates
91. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Indians
92. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels
93. Tim Melville, RHP, Royals
94. Gabriel Noriega, SS, Mariners
95. Fabio Martinez, RHP, Angels
96. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
97. Jio Mier, SS, Astros
98. Ethan Martin, RHP, Dodgers
99. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brewers
100. Jason Castro, C, Astros
101. Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals

[REDblooded]

still think Alonso should be rated #1 prospect in the organization Doug?




JK of course... Really can't believe he's not on that list... Had to check it twice...

[dougdirt]

still think Alonso should be rated #1 prospect in the organization Doug?




JK of course... Really can't believe he's not on that list... Had to check it twice...

I checked it a few times, then did a search for both Reds and Alonso in firefox for spelling errors. How one goes from a 5 start prospect in 2009 to beating the crap out of the FSL to a wrist injury to a 3 star prospect and not inside a Top 101 prospect list is mind boggling to me.

[Kingspoint]

I checked it a few times, then did a search for both Reds and Alonso in firefox for spelling errors. How one goes from a 5 start prospect in 2009 to beating the crap out of the FSL to a wrist injury to a 3 star prospect and not inside a Top 101 prospect list is mind boggling to me.

The group at baseball prospectus that decided Alonso is not a Top-100 prospect has lost their minds.

They've just lost all credibility with me.

They obvioulsy didn't "watch" him last season, or they wouldn't rank him so ridiculously low. It's OK to be wrong about a couple of guys, but not a guy who "starred" in College, was drafted exactly where he should have been in the draft, and has done nothing to change his original projections other than have an injury that caused him to miss considerable time and approach his hitting slightly differently from normal.

It all doesn't matter, as a year from now he'll be playing in the Majors and making everyone who "thought" he had no power or couldn't hit look like fools for "guessing" on his abilities instead of taking a look at him in person.

If it was my job to work at baseball prospectus, there's no way I don't view every one of the Top-250 prospects in person, who play baseball East of the Mississippi river. And, if I did watch him and can't recognize the talent that makes up Yonder Alonso, I'd get out of the business forever, because I obviously don't know what I'm talking about.

Yonder Alonso=Jack Clark

Alonso was, is and will always be an RBI-Machine. At the end of every season, there's only one thing I'll be interested in from Alonso, and that's how many RBI's did he get. The answer will always be "an inordinately high number compared to the number of opportunities he had".

[dougdirt]

The group at baseball prospectus that decided Alonso is not a Top-100 prospect has lost their minds.

No group think at BP. Its just Kevin Goldstein over at BP doing their rankings.

[Scrap Irony]

The group at baseball prospectus that decided Alonso is not a Top-100 prospect has lost their minds.

They've just lost all credibility with me.

They obvioulsy didn't "watch" him last season, or they wouldn't rank him so ridiculously low. It's OK to be wrong about a couple of guys, but not a guy who "starred" in College, was drafted exactly where he should have been in the draft, and has done nothing to change his original projections other than have an injury that caused him to miss considerable time and approach his hitting slightly differently from normal.

It all doesn't matter, as a year from now he'll be playing in the Majors and making everyone who "thought" he had no power or couldn't hit look like fools for "guessing" on his abilities instead of taking a look at him in person.

If it was my job to work at baseball prospectus, there's no way I don't view every one of the Top-250 prospects in person, who play baseball East of the Mississippi river. And, if I did watch him and can't recognize the talent that makes up Yonder Alonso, I'd get out of the business forever, because I obviously don't know what I'm talking about.

Yonder Alonso=Jack Clark

Alonso was, is and will always be an RBI-Machine. At the end of every season, there's only one thing I'll be interested in from Alonso, and that's how many RBI's did he get. The answer will always be "an inordinately high number compared to the number of opportunities he had".

1. I'm pretty sure someone at BP has seen Alonso play multiple times. Goldstein likely has seen all of them live. If he hasn't, he's at least seen video. (If not, he has no business doing the rankings, I agree.)
2. It doesn't matter where someone is drafted; it matters how they produce and how scouts foresee them playing in the future.
3. So if a person sees him in person and they still don't view him as a top prospect, they're simply wrong because his skills are that apparent? Hyperbole.
4. Not only that, if someone disagrees with you, they're so wrong they should get out of the sport? Ridiculous.
5. Yonder Alonso= Jack Clark? Supposedly, Alonso's best tool is his ability to hit for average. Clark struggled to hit for average for most of his career. The comparison is flawed.
6. RBI is a team-dependent stat that has little bearing on the talent of a prospect. Your assertion that he is an RBI machine is, at best, a minor point, and, most likely, a nonstarter for every serious prospect guru in the business.

[Kingspoint]

1. I'm pretty sure someone at BP has seen Alonso play multiple times. Goldstein likely has seen all of them live. If he hasn't, he's at least seen video. (If not, he has no business doing the rankings, I agree.)
2. It doesn't matter where someone is drafted; it matters how they produce and how scouts foresee them playing in the future.
3. So if a person sees him in person and they still don't view him as a top prospect, they're simply wrong because his skills are that apparent? Hyperbole.
4. Not only that, if someone disagrees with you, they're so wrong they should get out of the sport? Ridiculous.
5. Yonder Alonso= Jack Clark? Supposedly, Alonso's best tool is his ability to hit for average. Clark struggled to hit for average for most of his career. The comparison is flawed.
6. RBI is a team-dependent stat that has little bearing on the talent of a prospect. Your assertion that he is an RBI machine is, at best, a minor point, and, most likely, a nonstarter for every serious prospect guru in the business.

Jack Clark's best attributes were his ability to deliver RBI's at an improbable rate (as he had no one else on the team with any sort of power and was constantly walked), while being able to get on-base on a regular basis. He just wasn't given much to hit. It's hard to hit for average when they won't pitch to you. Alonso's best tool is his ability to knock guys in regardless of the situation, exactly like Jack Clark. Their careers will be 30 years apart, so the overall stats will be much different, but the similarities in being the "RBI-producer" on his team wherever he plays will be the same.

I addressed the "rbi is a team-dependent stat" in my original post. I said that they are "RBI-machines" because they'll knock in more per opportunity. And, it's not just "total RBI's", but it's when the RBI's are being knocked in during a game. How often does the RBI tie the game or put the team ahead. This is the type of player Jack Clark was and Yonder Alonso is.

Your point #3 is correct. If you can't recognize Alonzo's skills after having watched him play in person, you should get out of the business of giving analyses on players. Because you're definitely lacking the skills to do so properly.

Your point #2 is correct. Of course it doesn't matter where someone is drafted to determine where they rank now, but I said that Alonzo's done nothing to lower his status of having been drafted where he was in his short time in the minors so far. Where he was drafted does carry weight (unless you were drafted by Al Davis), when the draft was so recent.

Again, though, it's all a moot point. One year from now, Goldstein will be eating his words about Alonso, and my point will have been made. If Goldstein has seen Alonso play, then he's just not very good at scouting. Alonso's abilities are very obvious.

The first time I saw Gordan Beckham play a 3-game series in College, he was one of the smallest players on the field, but he played like a Giant. I saw his "intangibles" and hoped right there that he would become a RED. But, I also knew that Jockety liked Left-handed Power and that he was going to make Alonso his first pick as the new G.M. He didn't know yet if he had Left-Handed Power in the new REDS as Votto and Bruce hadn't proved anything yet. The GAB was created for Left-handed Power. If there's any way at all to get Alonso and Votto on the field together Walt's going to figure out how to do it. Alonso is the perfect player to bat behind Votto.

I'm just tired of hearing people give Alonso a bad wrap because of mis-perceived flaws in his makeup that can only stem from some stats they're reading on a web-site.

I can't believe that anyone who sees Alsonso doesn't project him as an .800-.850 career OPS player who will usually be in the Top-10 in the Majors for producing RBI's per opportunity.

Yonder Alonso is the best clutch hitter I've seen in a REDS uniform since Ken Griffey Senior, except Alonso has more power.

[Scrap Irony]

His AFL season, injury, and major questions about his ability to hit LH (not to mention the lesser questions of power and position) would do it for me, though, to be fair, I do think Alonso is a Top 100 prospect.

[bigredbunter]

It's surprising how few 2b are on that list. Only 4...I guess few players are ever really drafted as primarily 2b, though.

[dougdirt]

His AFL season, injury, and major questions about his ability to hit LH (not to mention the lesser questions of power and position) would do it for me, though, to be fair, I do think Alonso is a Top 100 prospect.

Well his AFL season ties in with the injury. My question is this too - why does Alonso get bumped but Justin Smoak does not? Smoak dealt with an injury this season, hit for far less power despite being in much more hitter friendly leagues (while Alonso was in the worst league in the minors for 80% of his season) and also struggled to hit lefties big time? Smoak hit .214/.301/.325 vs lefties last season. It just confuses me when things like that happen.

[OnBaseMachine]

It's pretty funny that Yonder Alonso isn't ranked, nor is Juan Francisco, but the horribly overrated Josh Vitters is #31.

And if Miguel Angel Sano is #35, then why isn't Yorman Rodriguez ranked?

[dougdirt]

It's pretty funny that Yonder Alonso isn't ranked, nor is Juan Francisco, but the horribly overrated Josh Vitters is #31.

And if Miguel Angel Sano is #35, then why isn't Yorman Rodriguez ranked?

Good questions all around.

[edabbs44]

Here's the depressing part:

Out of the last 4 drafts, we have one guy in the majors and two guys on the list, none in the top 58. Two of our 1st rounders don't show up and the guy in the majors may or may not have shown up on this list if he was eligible.

We have also had some uninspiring seasons leading to top half picks in most (all?) of those drafts.

Sweet.

[dougdirt]

Here's the depressing part:

Out of the last 4 drafts, we have one guy in the majors and two guys on the list, none in the top 58. Two of our 1st rounders don't show up and the guy in the majors may or may not have shown up on this list if he was eligible.

We have also had some uninspiring seasons leading to top half picks in most (all?) of those drafts.

Sweet.

Or you could look at it another way - our worst showing on any offseason list had us with 3 Top 75 prospects in baseball despite recent graduations of Cueto, Votto, Stubbs, Bailey and Bruce.

[edabbs44]

Or you could look at it another way - our worst showing on any offseason list had us with 3 Top 75 prospects in baseball despite recent graduations of Cueto, Votto, Stubbs, Bailey and Bruce.

I'm not sure how recent some of those grads are.

I don't think that Stubbs would be very high on the list.

I am speaking about drafts only.

We've had better than average draft positioning over the past few years so, all things being equal, we should have better than average performance. 2 draftees in the top 101 sucks.