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Thread: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

  1. #46
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
    2. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
    3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
    4. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
    5. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
    6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
    7. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
    8. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
    9. Buster Posey, C, Giants
    10. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
    11. Chris Carter, 1B, Athletics
    12. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B, Mariners
    13. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays
    14. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Red Sox
    15. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
    16. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays
    17. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
    18. Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles
    19. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
    20. Michael Taylor, OF, Athletics
    21. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants
    22. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Rockies
    23. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies
    24. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies
    25. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers

    When I look at the top 25, there's not a whole lot of guys I would move Alonso above... Really not sure Drabek belongs there though.
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  3. #47
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    wrong... to make money for the sites that post them...

    True.

  4. #48
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    1. I'm pretty sure someone at BP has seen Alonso play multiple times. Goldstein likely has seen all of them live. If he hasn't, he's at least seen video. (If not, he has no business doing the rankings, I agree.)
    2. It doesn't matter where someone is drafted; it matters how they produce and how scouts foresee them playing in the future.
    3. So if a person sees him in person and they still don't view him as a top prospect, they're simply wrong because his skills are that apparent? Hyperbole.
    4. Not only that, if someone disagrees with you, they're so wrong they should get out of the sport? Ridiculous.
    5. Yonder Alonso= Jack Clark? Supposedly, Alonso's best tool is his ability to hit for average. Clark struggled to hit for average for most of his career. The comparison is flawed.
    6. RBI is a team-dependent stat that has little bearing on the talent of a prospect. Your assertion that he is an RBI machine is, at best, a minor point, and, most likely, a nonstarter for every serious prospect guru in the business.
    Jack Clark's best attributes were his ability to deliver RBI's at an improbable rate (as he had no one else on the team with any sort of power and was constantly walked), while being able to get on-base on a regular basis. He just wasn't given much to hit. It's hard to hit for average when they won't pitch to you. Alonso's best tool is his ability to knock guys in regardless of the situation, exactly like Jack Clark. Their careers will be 30 years apart, so the overall stats will be much different, but the similarities in being the "RBI-producer" on his team wherever he plays will be the same.

    I addressed the "rbi is a team-dependent stat" in my original post. I said that they are "RBI-machines" because they'll knock in more per opportunity. And, it's not just "total RBI's", but it's when the RBI's are being knocked in during a game. How often does the RBI tie the game or put the team ahead. This is the type of player Jack Clark was and Yonder Alonso is.

    Your point #3 is correct. If you can't recognize Alonzo's skills after having watched him play in person, you should get out of the business of giving analyses on players. Because you're definitely lacking the skills to do so properly.

    Your point #2 is correct. Of course it doesn't matter where someone is drafted to determine where they rank now, but I said that Alonzo's done nothing to lower his status of having been drafted where he was in his short time in the minors so far. Where he was drafted does carry weight (unless you were drafted by Al Davis), when the draft was so recent.

    Again, though, it's all a moot point. One year from now, Goldstein will be eating his words about Alonso, and my point will have been made. If Goldstein has seen Alonso play, then he's just not very good at scouting. Alonso's abilities are very obvious.

    The first time I saw Gordan Beckham play a 3-game series in College, he was one of the smallest players on the field, but he played like a Giant. I saw his "intangibles" and hoped right there that he would become a RED. But, I also knew that Jockety liked Left-handed Power and that he was going to make Alonso his first pick as the new G.M. He didn't know yet if he had Left-Handed Power in the new REDS as Votto and Bruce hadn't proved anything yet. The GAB was created for Left-handed Power. If there's any way at all to get Alonso and Votto on the field together Walt's going to figure out how to do it. Alonso is the perfect player to bat behind Votto.

    I'm just tired of hearing people give Alonso a bad wrap because of mis-perceived flaws in his makeup that can only stem from some stats they're reading on a web-site.

    I can't believe that anyone who sees Alsonso doesn't project him as an .800-.850 career OPS player who will usually be in the Top-10 in the Majors for producing RBI's per opportunity.

    Yonder Alonso is the best clutch hitter I've seen in a REDS uniform since Ken Griffey Senior, except Alonso has more power.

  5. #49
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Kingspoint, I'm just curious--do you have any statistical to back up your points?

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post

    Your point #3 is correct. If you can't recognize Alonzo's skills after having watched him play in person, you should get out of the business of giving analyses on players. Because you're definitely lacking the skills to do so properly.
    State an opinion as fact enough and it becomes fact?

    Weak, weak argument.

    In fact, no argument at all.

    Has it really come to this? he who shouts loudest and most insistently wins?

    Sigh.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  7. #51
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    These prospects lists are totally subjective and they don't mean much.

    Alonso simply has to perform well. He's been riddled with a late signing in 2008 and an injury in 2009. He hasn't had a full year to show his stuff. He needs to have a good year coming up.

    The lists tend to favor guys who haven't yet had any adversity on the field. At some point, though, the adversity comes for almost all prospects. They then fall down the lists. Means nothing. They are young, can adjust, and come back.

    So no reason to be upset here, the key is for Alonso to smash the ball in 2010. Then we can worry about his fielding position, his placement on lists, and all that.

    Let's just hope Yonder has a big year on the field.

  8. #52
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    These prospects lists are totally subjective and they don't mean much.

    Alonso simply has to perform well. He's been riddled with a late signing in 2008 and an injury in 2009. He hasn't had a full year to show his stuff. He needs to have a good year coming up.

    The lists tend to favor guys who haven't yet had any adversity on the field. At some point, though, the adversity comes for almost all prospects. They then fall down the lists. Means nothing. They are young, can adjust, and come back.

    So no reason to be upset here, the key is for Alonso to smash the ball in 2010. Then we can worry about his fielding position, his placement on lists, and all that.

    Let's just hope Yonder has a big year on the field.
    Exactly right. In the rush to appear to know how good prospects will become, many mistakes are made.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  9. #53
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    FWIW I like Andres Galaragga as a major league comp for Alonso maybe a smidge better is how I see him realistically. What I mean by that is both big strapping guys, both 1st basemen, both have more of a doubles stroke. But frankly there is probably a more astute comparison than even Andres in terms of real production just seem similiar in the power numbers (HR's, Dbls) and how advanced an intelligent hitter Andres became. I see Yonder having a different career arc though, something like the following.

    Up to age 27/28 - .280/.360/.480
    Age 27/28 - 32/33 - .290/.380/.520
    Age 32/33 on - .270/.350/.450
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    I am confused as to why anyone gets cranked up over these ratings. They are wrong as often as they are right. Look at the consensus Top 10 from 10 years ago. Anybody plan on going to the Hall of Fame induction for any of these guys. (Besides Corey P. I know we will all attend that )

    1. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
    2. Pat Burrell, 1b/of, Phillies
    3. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs
    4. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
    5. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
    6. Ruben Mateo, of, Rangers
    7. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres
    8. Rafael Furcal, ss, Braves
    9. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners
    10. John Patterson, rhp, Diamondbacks

    As far as Alonso goes, I would love to see him actually get 400+ At bats in a season to find out what he is. I have seen him play twice and his swing looks nice but nothing about him really jumped out at me. Granted it was after his injury, but I am really curious if his numbers are due to injuries/park effects or that is what he really is. I guess we shall see.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by krm1580 View Post
    I am confused as to why anyone gets cranked up over these ratings. They are wrong as often as they are right. Look at the consensus Top 10 from 10 years ago. Anybody plan on going to the Hall of Fame induction for any of these guys. (Besides Corey P. I know we will all attend that )

    1. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
    2. Pat Burrell, 1b/of, Phillies
    3. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs
    4. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
    5. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
    6. Ruben Mateo, of, Rangers
    7. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres
    8. Rafael Furcal, ss, Braves
    9. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners
    10. John Patterson, rhp, Diamondbacks

    As far as Alonso goes, I would love to see him actually get 400+ At bats in a season to find out what he is. I have seen him play twice and his swing looks nice but nothing about him really jumped out at me. Granted it was after his injury, but I am really curious if his numbers are due to injuries/park effects or that is what he really is. I guess we shall see.
    Albert Pujols highest ranking by Baseball America was 41...
    2010 Mock Draft Selections (picking for Rays)

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    Brandon Workman
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    Matt Lipka
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  12. #56
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Albert Pujols highest ranking by Baseball America was 41...
    Of course he only spent 1 full season in the minor leagues and it was in the lower levels (except a one week call up to AAA as a fill in - he actually only spent about a month outside of low A)

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Of course he only spent 1 full season in the minor leagues and it was in the lower levels (except a one week call up to AAA as a fill in - he actually only spent about a month outside of low A)
    Didn't stop them from rating guys like Strasburg in their top 2.... Just a point to be made that in the end, prospect rankings really don't mean a whole lot, outside of selling advertisement space and subscriptions... and giving us all something to talk about...
    2010 Mock Draft Selections (picking for Rays)

    Bryce Brentz
    Brandon Workman
    Kris Bryant
    Matt Lipka
    Rick Hague

  14. #58
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Didn't stop them from rating guys like Strasburg in their top 2.... Just a point to be made that in the end, prospect rankings really don't mean a whole lot, outside of selling advertisement space and subscriptions... and giving us all something to talk about...
    Well to be fair, Strasburg has everything you want in a pitcher (other than clean mechanics, though some will tell you he has them). Pujols had a bad body and poor defense. He also saw drops in his performance when he was promoted, albeit a short time period of the last month of the season. Strasburg is also viewed as more 'ready' now than Pujols was in 2000. Of course that is likely to be incorrect as in 2001 Pujols killed the ball in the majors and Strasburg would have to probably throw 175 innings of about 3.50 ERA baseball to match what Pujols did that season.

    The number next to the names is more about giving something to talk about. The information that generally comes after the players name is generally more important.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Anyone see the Double that Alonso hit off of Chapman on Thursday?

    Guess he can't hit left-handers, though.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Kingspoint, I'm just curious--do you have any statistical to back up your points?
    Dougdirt's provided an intense amount of support, but I guess I'd really like to drop it for now and just wait and see what happens with him this year. We'll all know soon enough. I'm not going to say, "I told you so" or anything to anyone about it. REDSZONE's the most intelligent forum I've ever seen, by far (though I don't check out very many). The consensus here is usually correct (except of course when evaluating our own players, as the tendency to over-value them is consistent, especially when we like them a lot as people, but that's pretty normal).

    The consensus here is that Alonso is going to be a "solid" hitter in the Majors for many years, at the very least. And a guy like that should be in the Top-100 prospects.

    The biggest difference in opinions I've had around here is that most people liked the Scott Rolen for Zach Stewart trade. It was pretty overwhelmingly in favor of the trade. That the consensus here is usually correct, it's looks like I'll be wrong about that one. I just hope no one tries to use the "he's brought a veteran presence to the club argument" as proof, if the REDS turn out to win 90 games this year.

    I trust my eyes, by the way, more than I trust any stat. When I watch Alonso bat, he makes me go, "Wow!".

    As several of the last posts have said, we all need to see him play a full season.


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