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View Poll Results: Best overall season at AAA in 2010

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  • Yonder Alonso

    12 22.22%
  • Todd Frazier

    11 20.37%
  • Danny Dorn

    0 0%
  • Chris Heisey

    11 20.37%
  • Zack Cozart

    1 1.85%
  • Juan Francisco

    15 27.78%
  • Chris Valaika

    4 7.41%
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Thread: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

  1. #16
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    I went with Alonso. I think the bounceback from the broken hand is already underway, and that he is as was always advertised, a ridiculously good hitter. He will be a hot prospect by June 1. And a great trade chip if need be right thereafter.

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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Francisco had 99 plate appearances at AAA last year and was a dominant hitter. He had a .982 OPS, 5 homers and 19 RBIs in that short stint. He then moved up to Cincy, did well, and won the Dominican League MVP.

    I can see folks questioning JF's ability to master major league pitching. At AAA, though, I expect further dominant hitting.

    Also think his fielding will improve such that he easily should win this poll.
    Do you believe AAA was easier than AA? Francisco had an .818 OPS in AA. He got lucky in AAA and posted a BABIP of .450 over a small sample size. I would expect more of the same this season, somewhere between an .800 and .850 OPS, mostly built on slugging percentage.

    I do think his error rate will improve slightly, as Carolina is notorious for its infield. Still, if he is over .925 I would be a little surprised.

  4. #18
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Do you believe AAA was easier than AA? Francisco had an .818 OPS in AA. He got lucky in AAA and posted a BABIP of .450 over a small sample size. I would expect more of the same this season, somewhere between an .800 and .850 OPS, mostly built on slugging percentage.
    .
    I don't think AAA is easier than AA. But you are ignoring JF's progression. There was no stark difference between his late Carolina performance and his Louisville performance - he dominated both.

    He broke into AA last year as a very young player for that level. He OPS'd .685 and .726 in April and May, respectively.

    Once he was comfortable at the level, he OPS'd .899, .804, and 1.148 at AA in his last three months there.

    He then went on to AAA and OPS'd .982.

    His BABIP will always be high because JF hits the ball so hard that a disproportionate number of balls hit in play will go for base hits. Not merely luck IMO.

    Having said that, I don't expect him to OPS .982. There will be slumps, and injuries, and tough pitching matchups and all the reasons a players' numbers level off over a long season. And JF's OPS sometimes suffers because his OBP is relatively low.

    But JF comes into the season better equipped to dominate at that level than any other Reds' hitter. He's had the experience at AAA and already succeeded. This includes Alonso and Frazier - who I expect will also do well BTW, particularly given the terrific lineup the team will have.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-04-2010 at 05:02 PM.

  5. #19
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    But JF comes into the season better equipped to dominate at that level than any other Reds' hitter. He's had the experience at AAA and already succeeded. This includes Alonso and Frazier - who I expect will also do well BTW, particularly given the terrific lineup the team will have.
    I disagree. Though I picked Valaika to have the best overall season, I can see Dorn outhitting Francisco. Dorn's power is legit. He may never figure out LH's, but vs RH's in the Reds minor league system has there been a better hitter over the last 4 years?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #20
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I disagree. Though I picked Valaika to have the best overall season, I can see Dorn outhitting Francisco. Dorn's power is legit. He may never figure out LH's, but vs RH's in the Reds minor league system has there been a better hitter over the last 4 years?
    Good point, Dorn must be a mature hitter by now with AAA experience. He too could have a great year at AAA. Really, the AAA team is well stocked.

    I just think JF's big challenge this season is improving defensively. I think he will belt the ball in Louisville.

  7. #21
    Member 11larkin11's Avatar
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I disagree. Though I picked Valaika to have the best overall season, I can see Dorn outhitting Francisco. Dorn's power is legit. He may never figure out LH's, but vs RH's in the Reds minor league system has there been a better hitter over the last 4 years?
    Jay Bruce?
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  8. #22
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post

    His BABIP will always be high because JF hits the ball so hard that a disproportionate number of balls hit in play will go for base hits. Not merely luck IMO.
    Francisco had a BABIP in AA last year of .312. In AAA it was .444 and .612 in the majors. You are trying to convince me that Francisco was hitting the ball that much harder in AAA and the majors than he did in the Southern League instead of just random small sample size luck? Come on.

  9. #23
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    Quote Originally Posted by 11larkin11 View Post
    Jay Bruce?
    Jay Bruce career vs RH's in the minors .950 OPS
    Danny Dorn career vs RH's in the minor leagues .948 OPS

    I'd call that a wash.

    Of course, in the minors, Bruce could hit LH's too...

    Looking deeper, Bruce's BABIP vs LH's .383 while Dorn's is .256. Normalize both and Dorn certainly looks a little better. Of course his babip could be low because he hits weakly against southpaws.
    Last edited by TRF; 03-04-2010 at 05:41 PM.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #24
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Francisco had a BABIP in AA last year of .312. In AAA it was .444 and .612 in the majors. You are trying to convince me that Francisco was hitting the ball that much harder in AAA and the majors than he did in the Southern League instead of just random small sample size luck? Come on.

    Again, you can't look at JF's overall AA numbers because of the huge disparity between his break-in period, April/May, and his later period when he did much better. So the .312 is an overall average including his early period and I don't think it means much.

    I don't know exactly how hard he hit the ball and when. I do know, generally, that JF is likely to have high BABIP numbers because he hits the ball very hard. So his "batting average on balls in play" may be higher than the average player. That's all.

  11. #25
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Again, you can't look at JF's overall AA numbers because of the huge disparity between his break-in period, April/May, and his later period when he did much better. So the .312 is an overall average including his early period and I don't think it means much.

    I don't know exactly how hard he hit the ball and when. I do know, generally, that JF is likely to have high BABIP numbers because he hits the ball very hard. So his "batting average on balls in play" may be higher than the average player. That's all.
    Francisco hits strikes hard. He doens't hit bad pitches hard all that often. Its going to even out his BABIP. Its why he has never posted a BABIP over .340 in the minors for a full season. The good comes with the bad. His BABIP for June + July was .300. His BABIP from that point forward in the season was over .450, something that no one has ever in the history of baseball come close to posting in a season. Given over 500 at bats in a season, .400 BABIP has been cracked just 5 times since 1960. Rod Carew had a .411 BABIP in 1977 as the highest BABIP going back to 1960 with at least 500 PA.

    Point being, Francisco isn't going to be that guy, has never been that guy in the past over a full year and won't be moving forward. He is a .300-.320 BABIP guy just like he always has been in the minor leagues. Unless he can change the amount of crap he swings at, regardless of how hard he can actually hit strikes, his BABIP isn't going to break the norm by much because he just swings at too much junk that he can't do much with.

  12. #26
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    My ratings in order of likelihood of having best season.

    1. Heisey. Consistent hitter, good strike zone discipline, improving power stats, above average defender, excellent base stealing skills
    2. Frazier. Consistent hitter, good strike zone discipline, good power potential, excellent arm, not as much speed as Heisey
    3. Alonso. Great strike zone discipline, best pure hitter, success will be defined in terms of power and that may be difficult to achieve coming off injury.
    4. Cozart. Good strike zone discipline, improving as a hitter, and showing some pop, good defense at a premium position. An OPS over 800 would likely give him the best year.
    5. Valaika. K/BB is >3. This might have caught up to him at AAA. He does have above average power for a middle infielder. Average defender at best. I think he will bounce back, but others will have a better year. To have the best year, he needs to OPS 850 and defend better at 2B than he has at SS.
    6. Francisco. Clearly the most power. Did he make a change that caused him to take off at mid season in AA? Strong arm but below average fielder. Needs to hit 30+ HRs, get K/BB under 3, and make gigantic strides defensively to have the best year.
    7. Dorn. Very good hitter. He always seems to get off to a slow start, but has good power and good contact. From reports on RZ, average defender at best. As a left fielder, needs to hit a ton and show ability to hit left handers.

  13. #27
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    1. Alonso
    2. Dorn
    3. Francisco
    4. Heisey
    5. Frazier
    6. Cozart
    7. Valaika
    8. Janish
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #28
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    Why wasn't Corky Miller listed as an option?

  15. #29
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Why wasn't Corky Miller listed as an option?
    funny, but the above seven are legit prospects, all 26 or younger.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #30
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    Re: Who will have the best overall season at AAA

    Why wasn't Corky Miller listed as an option?
    That's the bus I'm on.
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