TRANSLATION:
Don't get your hopes up -- we structured his contract this way for a reason.
TRANSLATION:
Don't get your hopes up -- we structured his contract this way for a reason.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
And, I think the Reds would be silly to not bring Chapman along at a speed that gives the team the best contract in terms of length. I don't think we ought to worry too much about printing World Series tickets for 2010.Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
The pitching may be exciting, but until the offense proves it can score runs, it won't matter if your staff ERA is 2.50. They are going to lose a LOT of 1-0, 2-1 games until the team scores runs.
Let this team prove it can score 5-6 runs every night, then I'm all for bringing in Chapman ASAP.
I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast. Eddie Bane
We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it. Tony Gwynn
...says the Rays fan between the 2007 and 2008 seasons.
Domo Arigato, Here Comes Joey Votto
---TRF
"I do what I want to do and say what I want to say."
--Bronson Arroyo
I've said this before and will keep saying it.
The only factor in the decision where to play Chapman is what is best for his development long term. Contract, roster space, team record, ticket sales all should be irrelevant to that one key question.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
I'm not 100% sure about that... imo, Reds need to make the best decision in regards to what he can do for the term of their current contract... If Chapman reaches his ultimate potential, I really can't see a scenario where they open up their pocketbooks a second time... Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Bailey will all have to be re-signed around the same time as Chapman, and the Reds will be forced to make some decisions... If all 5 hit their potential, I suspect Chapman will probably cost another 20-30 million more than the other 4...
2010 Mock Draft Selections (picking for Rays)
Bryce Brentz
Brandon Workman
Kris Bryant
Matt Lipka
Rick Hague
If all five hit their potential, the Reds will win multiple World Series and be able to sustain a payroll similar to St. Louis, Atlanta, and other mid-market teams.
That team, with those five near their ceilings, would be a better team than the Braves put up in the 90's. It would be a true dynasty. And fans love a winner.
And here is more John Fay stoking the fires of bringing up Chapman:
Buzz Growing for Chapman:Wow, BOTH of Chapman's innings were good. We need to hose Fay down a little...Serious case of infatuation developing. Let's wait and see him pitch 5 or 6 innings in one game, and see how he does. Also, keep that contract and it's complications in mind.Chapman has pitched better than any other contender for the fifth spot in the starting rotation. He also has the best stuff by far....Maybe the most impressive thing about Chapman is the progress he's made each time he's pitched. His second bullpen session was better than the first; his debut was better than his outing in the intrasquad game.
__________________
"I think were starting to get to the point where people are starting to get tired of this stretch of ball, Votto said. I think something needs to start changing and start going in a different direction. Im going to do my part to help make that change.
And thank goodness too. The Reds simply cannot afford to enter the Super 2 status situation with Chapman. They would be paying him Arroyo/Harang beginning immediately and control him for 3 years at that cost. Think about it...3 years/$30M or 6 years/$30M (i think or is it 5 years)? They can bring Chapman up in late May. The 5th starter (who admittedly won't be great) will get what, maybe 6 starts? Owings/Maloney/Lehr...someone can do it. If the club is building for the future, then they need to wait on Chapman. As Mike said, 2010 isn't likely to be the year for the Reds anyway.
One thing to consider is that it is easier to limit Chapman's innings in the minors. Pulling him early in a game in AA is easier to hide than in front of 35k in Cincinnati. The Reds should start him in the minors to handle him similar to what the Red sox did a couple of seasons back with Buchholz. (could have been Lester) Started him on the farm for short outings, brought him up midseason, this allowed him to have full outings in the MLB without worrying about building his innings too quickly.
Last edited by klw; 03-10-2010 at 09:53 AM.
Exactly. In the big-leagues, it's all about winning -- as it should be. If you're worried about development or pitch counts with a young guy, then send him down. If you keep him, you'd better be comfortable with him doing whatever he needs to do to help the team win -- 200 ip, 120 pitches in a start ... whatever.
No one ever said a guy was ruined because they brought him up too late.
Roberto Petagine.
wasn't re ruined because he was brought up too late?
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Actually if they break camp with him, he's no super two. He may very well legitimately get in three years and be arbitration eligible just like everyone else with three years service time
My understanding is that it takes all players 3 years to become arbitration eligible, unless you are part of the 20% or so that accrue the most service time out of that class, in which case, if AC started with the club, he would almost certainly be Super 2. Am I using the correct rationale here?
Not really. The super-twos are the top 17% of the class that has at least two years of service time, but not yet three years. If Chapman starts in Cincinnati and stays there, after 2011 he will have two years of service time, but only two; he'll be nowhere near the top 17%, those guys will be between 2.5 and 3. Then after 2012, he would have the full three years and would qualify on that basis.
The super-two thing would come into play if Chapman starts in the minors but is called up quickly, so at the end of 2012 he would have closer to three years than two. Then he'd probably end up a super-two.
Reading comprehension is not just an ability, it's a choice
This is also an argument for using him in the bullpen at the major league level to start with... I'd love to see the Reds handle him the way the Rays handled David Price.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
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