I would not be surprised to see Leake start at AA and Chapman at Lynchburg with the expectation they will quickly be bumped up to AAA. (Maybe by May) Sending Chapmen to the new affiliate make good PR sense to build brand loyalty and allows him to start in a low pressure environment. Of course if his performance may make it impossible to start him that low.
I still find it astonishing that, out of 51 votes, there's not a single one for Justin Lehr. I mean, the question is who will have the best season at AAA. Over the last two years at Louisville, Lehr is 14-3 with a 2.32 ERA. This year, after skipping winter ball, he is reportedly stronger. He is also a longshot to make the Reds, which means that he'll probably again be working in a league that he has apparently mastered.
That said, I didn't vote for him, either (although it was a close call). It certainly speaks to the compelling concentration of talent at that level. It's just weird that he would be so neglected . . .
Article on Travis Wood from Louisville's website:
I doubt Chapman will be in Triple A for much more than 2 or 3 starts. I think he'll be in a lower class to begin with then get moved up for Triple A for a the last few weeks then when June comes around he'll be with the Reds
Most Vottomatic Player
If Chapman continues to pitch well, he's going to be the fifth starter in Cincinnati at the beginning of the season. Cincinnati brass will insist he'll sell tickets (and he may), while the on-field staff likes his talent.
"You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
-- Christy Matthewson
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
-- Leo Durocher
The same talk is being bantered about re: Strasburg. Give your affiliates a bone - let him play some games at AA and then AAA, early in the season when people don't really get excited for MiLB.
Let him prove that MiL hitters pose him no challenge, then bring him up.
In our case there's the little issue of saving $10-$15M and perhaps another year of control under his current contract.
Also, I think the "cultural" adaption is something that has not been brought up much. I think he will feel MORE comfortable with the Big League team - there are more guys that speak spanish there, etc... although starting out in the Majors he doesn't get a feel for the "transition" from Cuba to the BrightLights/BigCity that being a major leaguer commands, let him get a taste of the minor leagues first, to get an appreciation.
I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008
Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009
Chapman is under the Reds control for 6 years, regardless of when he is called up. His contract has nothing to do with that. In fact, I believe there is nothing in his contract that can void the MLB players agreement regarding control of a player. All his contract does is change from salary to bonus money regarding his arbitration status.
Potentially, IF he reached his ceiling right away, it could cost the Reds an additional 10-15 mil over the life of his current contract, or what comes to an additional 3 million per year. If it goes the full 6 years, we are talking $45 mil over 5 years. He'll be paid 1 mil for this year. And if he does indeed reach said ceiling this year and maintains it, it averages 9 mil per year, but the big money won't take place until, what year 3? 4? Well after Harang, Arroyo and possibly even BP come off the books. Rolen too.
I am soooo not worried about the contract. IMO it should be a non issue, especially regarding his development.
The Reds retain his rights for six years (I believe) regardless. I really think there needs to be a sticky just for chapman's contract.
Last edited by TRF; 03-10-2010 at 11:23 AM.
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