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Thread: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

  1. #16
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Plus Plus View Post
    Isn't 150ip about what a MLB 5th starter would throw in a season, if they weren't hurt or sent down? Looking at previous Reds seasons, 5th starters seem to throw somewhere between 80 and 120 innings (never more than 120 in the last 10 years), so even if Chapman was a monster who never got hurt and threw like Randy Johnson he probably wouldn't throw more than 120-140 innings while on a 5th starter's schedule.
    Uhh our 5th starters in the past shouldn't be used for this...they were lucky to get out of the 4th inning most of the time.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by paulrichjr View Post
    Uhh our 5th starters in the past shouldn't be used for this...they were lucky to get out of the 4th inning most of the time.
    Although I think this is meant as a joke, I went ahead and looked it up- the last 10 years of 5th starter production for the Reds, Cubs, Cardinals, and Yankees- just for some variation.

    There were only five times where a 5th starter got more than 150 innings- 2000, 2004 and 2005 Cardinals rotations, 2001 Cubs rotation, 2003 Yankees rotation. However, this means that only 5/40 times a 5th starter got what could be called a "dangerous" workload re: Chapman. I am also not listing the large number of times (probably more than 20, but I don't want to look it up again right now) where even the 4th starter on teams didn't sniff 150 innings. I don't foresee any issues with his workload passing 150 innings if he is the Reds 5th starter all season long.
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  4. #18
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    It really depends on who your 5th starter is vs who your 1st starter is. If your 5th starter is horrible then you skip him as much as possible. Or if your #1 is Johan you get him as many starts as possible by skipping the #5 slot when off-days allow it.

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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    There's no choice other than to start Chapman in the Minors no matter how well he performs in ST.

    Because the REDS are going to have to medically study his arm over a period of months while he has a series of starts in regular season games.

    They can't do this at the Major Leauge level as his playing time would hinge on situation and Dusty Baker, along with the fact that they'd find it hard to control what he throws.

    The REDS have very little information on Chapman's "exact" past as far as innings pitched, what he threw in those starts, etc., etc..

    The REDS are going to have to have him throw in the minors under "controlled conditions"; and, then they'll peform ongoing medical tests to see how his arm reacts.

    Only after they have this information can they come up with a "plan for his future that includes letting him loose in the Majors".

    Any plan other than this is not prudent, and they didn't invest all of that money so that he can throw one season and then have an injury.

    While he's in the minors, they are also going to tweek his mechanics so that his arm lasts through the life of the contract, and so he can get to 210-220 innings on a regular basis without fear of harm to the arm.

    The REDS are going to be very, very careful with this "child".

    It's practically like adopting a kid from Africa. You're going to spend the first year doing all types of adjustments both medically and physically to the child.

  6. #20
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Plus Chapman's contract accelerates if he is in the majors before May 15th, so he won't see the majors until after that at least.

  7. #21
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    Plus Chapman's contract accelerates if he is in the majors before May 15th, so he won't see the majors until after that at least.
    There hasn't been any definitive proof of that. I think that was mis-reported by someone.

  8. #22
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    The REDS have very little information on Chapman's "exact" past as far as innings pitched, what he threw in those starts, etc., etc..
    Couldn't they just ask Chapman himself what he threw and for how long he threw? It would seem to me that the Reds would have a very good idea as to his workload in the past.

  9. #23
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    No. He's a cipher. Like the Allspark in Transformers. They stand around, staring at Chapman, unsure what to do, how to make him work for the good of all humanity, worried that if they do something wrong, all manner of electronics and machines will come to life as Deceptagons.

    Frankly, we should all be terrified. Except those of us that get to hang with Megan Fox.

  10. #24
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Bryan Price's comments on Chapman:

    "It’s not unrealistic to see (him making the club)," said Price. "But in the same respect, there’s a lot of spring to go. There’s a lot of decisions to be made. I don’t think that decision is going to be made until we get a lot closer to the end, and there’s a lot more involved than performance. But, right now, I hope he forces our hand."

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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Bryan Price's comments on Chapman:

    "Itís not unrealistic to see (him making the club)," said Price. "But in the same respect, thereís a lot of spring to go. Thereís a lot of decisions to be made. I donít think that decision is going to be made until we get a lot closer to the end, and thereís a lot more involved than performance. But, right now, I hope he forces our hand."
    Such as contract...
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  12. #26
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Re: Chapman on the opening day roster: The contract question is THE question right now. If the reports are true that an appearance in the big leagues before May 15 would trigger a clause in his contract that would void the final two years while keeping the monetary value the same, then there is no chance whatsoever that he sees a day in the majors before May 15. Zero chance. Zilch. The Reds would then have to pay him for those two years over and above what they are already paying him. It would cost the Reds roughly $20 million to have the use of Chapman for six weeks. Ain't happening, no matter what he does in the spring.

    We have heard about this contract clause. Has anyone seen it from a credible source, such as John Fay? I would like to see Fay or someone else get to the bottom of it.

  13. #27
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    Re: Chapman on the opening day roster: The contract question is THE question right now. If the reports are true that an appearance in the big leagues before May 15 would trigger a clause in his contract that would void the final two years while keeping the monetary value the same, then there is no chance whatsoever that he sees a day in the majors before May 15. Zero chance. Zilch. The Reds would then have to pay him for those two years over and above what they are already paying him. It would cost the Reds roughly $20 million to have the use of Chapman for six weeks. Ain't happening, no matter what he does in the spring.

    We have heard about this contract clause. Has anyone seen it from a credible source, such as John Fay? I would like to see Fay or someone else get to the bottom of it.
    It's not true. If it were, every news source in America would run it. You cannot trust one-source news "agencies" like AOL and FanHouse. Almost anyone can "report" the news by simply making crap up.

    (EDIT: After reading the above, I realize it sounds harsher than it should. I should say that I will believe it when I see a reputable news agency cover it as fact. With quotes, preferrably, from Jocketty and the Reds.)

    The Chapman contract is at Cot's.

    Does Chapman get more money if he's successful? Sure. (And deservedly so.) Will he somehow be able to void years of service and become a free agent early?

    Not a chance.
    Last edited by Scrap Irony; 03-10-2010 at 10:46 AM.
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  14. #28
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Scrap, the clause was reported by Jeff Passan at Yahoo sports. However it was fairly unclear about whether he was talking about Super 2 status or not, but it seems he was. The Reds know that they run a big risk of Chapman becoming a Super 2 if they call him up in April, and potentially only controlling him for 2010-2014 instead of waiting until June 1st and controlling him from June 1st 2010-2016. That is a giant difference that two months is going to make.

  15. #29
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Reasons to doubt Passan's "report":

    Yahoo has a one source news policy and has made numerous mistakes in the past.
    No reputable news agency has picked up on Chapman's contract, other than what has been reported through Cot's.
    The collective bargaining agreement gives teams six years for players.
    No team has ever "given away" free agency years before.
    If the Reds indeed have given up years, at least one news agency would have interviewed Selig and MLB on the originality (and their opinion of) the contract. None has.

    I just cannot believe all of this would be ignored if the contract is indeed as Passan states. Common sense dictates it to be false.
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  16. #30
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Leake is looking good so far this spring.


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