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Thread: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Reasons to doubt Passan's "report":

    Yahoo has a one source news policy and has made numerous mistakes in the past.
    No reputable news agency has picked up on Chapman's contract, other than what has been reported through Cot's.
    The collective bargaining agreement gives teams six years for players.
    No team has ever "given away" free agency years before.
    If the Reds indeed have given up years, at least one news agency would have interviewed Selig and MLB on the originality (and their opinion of) the contract. None has.

    I just cannot believe all of this would be ignored if the contract is indeed as Passan states. Common sense dictates it to be false.
    Every 'news' source has made numerous mistakes in the past. Does this mean you believe nothing unless you saw it with your own eyes?

    And its never been giving away those years, just paying more for the first 3 years. Teams do indeed do that.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Every 'news' source has made numerous mistakes in the past. Does this mean you believe nothing unless you saw it with your own eyes?
    Let me rephrase and simplify, then:

    Yahoo "news" has made so many mistakes in the past decade so as not to be trusted. They are (once again) a "single source" news agency, much like TMZ and The National Enquirer. Does that mean they get everything wrong? No. Does it mean they get more stuff wrong than almost any other agency?

    Yep.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  4. #33
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Let me rephrase and simplify, then:

    Yahoo "news" has made so many mistakes in the past decade so as not to be trusted. They are (once again) a "single source" news agency, much like TMZ and The National Enquirer. Does that mean they get everything wrong? No. Does it mean they get more stuff wrong than almost any other agency?

    Yep.
    I have to ask what you are basing this on? Where has Passan been wrong so much more in the past than others?

    Regardless of it all, the point still remains, if you keep Chapman down until June 1 you get him from June 1 2010 until the end of the 2016 season. If you bring Chapman up in April, he could qualify as a Super 2, costing you more money up front (because the entire contract gets pushed forward and then he becomes arbitration eligible) and you would only then get him from 2010-2014 before he reaches free agency.

  5. #34
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I have to ask what you are basing this on? Where has Passan been wrong so much more in the past than others?

    Regardless of it all, the point still remains, if you keep Chapman down until June 1 you get him from June 1 2010 until the end of the 2016 season. If you bring Chapman up in April, he could qualify as a Super 2, costing you more money up front (because the entire contract gets pushed forward and then he becomes arbitration eligible) and you would only then get him from 2010-2014 before he reaches free agency.
    Well it's pretty reasonable to assume that he'll become Arbitration eligible before his option year of 2015, likely after the 2013 season. So his $3M 2014 salary becomes a bonus, then he goes to Arbitration.

    Effectively that makes his contract a 4 year $25M deal.
    Then he is arbitration eligible for years 2014 and 2015, and then would become FA eligible for 2016 (I think?).
    I would imagine at that point they would offer him some sort of long-term contract when he first becomes arbitration eligible.

    PEACE
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

  6. #35
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

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    Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  7. #36
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    You're looking at this bass-akwards, doug. If Passan were right, every news agency in baseball would be talking about it.

    They're not.

    Ergo, he's (likely) wrong.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  8. #37
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    You're looking at this bass-akwards, doug. If Passan were right, every news agency in baseball would be talking about it.

    They're not.

    Ergo, he's (likely) wrong.
    Or he was simply talking about the super 2 ramifications which have been talked about by everyone and line up perfectly with what Passan has said. Maybe he worded it funny, but either way, what he said is going to have the same result even if the cause isn't exactly the same (Super 2, clause in the contract).

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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by bowles8 View Post
    Where do you guys possibly see these 3 starting the season at?????
    Leake should start at AAA. It's a waste of time to send him to lower levels. He's a very poised and polished pitcher. He would thrive with the excellent Louisville team the Reds likely will have.

    I see no reason to start Leake below the AAA level.

    Chapman should also begin at AAA. Let him pitch some games at AAA, then pitch in the Reds' pen for awhile, then in the rotation later in the season.

    Boxberger, him I know less about, likely High A to begin.

    But mainly I think Leake is ready for one year of AAA ball then the show.

  10. #39
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Leake should start at AAA. It's a waste of time to send him to lower levels. He's a very poised and polished pitcher. He would thrive with the excellent Louisville team the Reds likely will have.

    I see no reason to start Leake below the AAA level.

    Chapman should also begin at AAA. Let him pitch some games at AAA, then pitch in the Reds' pen for awhile, then in the rotation later in the season.

    Boxberger, him I know less about, likely High A to begin.

    But mainly I think Leake is ready for one year of AAA ball then the show.
    I tend to agree. But it's still too early to feel absolutely certain. We're a week into ST games.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  11. #40
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    Plus Chapman's contract accelerates if he is in the majors before May 15th, so he won't see the majors until after that at least.
    I didn't know that. And, if that's true, and the points Doug makes about June1st, it only makes sense to have him under a microscope under conditions the REDS control until June 1st. What a perfect time to add a boost to the club.

    I read where someone said he hadn't pitched in organized baseball in a year? Is that true? Was his arm dormant for that long?

    I'd much rather have him under controlled circumstances in the minors until June 1st, and limit his innings this year to around 150-160 than to have him approach 190-200 innings. I'd like to have him around six years from now.

  12. #41
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I tend to agree. But it's still too early to feel absolutely certain. We're a week into ST games.
    my brain: you are absolutely right.

    my heart: World Series baby! Hope springs eternal.
    .

  13. #42
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    I am not sold on Leake yet. Not saying I am necessarily a doubter, just not sold yet. I saw his outing Wednesday on TV. His stuff is average. He had a tremendous year in 09, we know that. We also know he is a first round pick, meaning he and Kip Wells are on even terms in that regard. I want to see something from Leake before I jump on the bandwagon.

    I think starting him in Double-A might be a bit high and maybe a bit of a gamble. I would rather see him follow the course that Alonso took last season...first couple of months in Lynchburg. Last thing you want to see is Leake go to Double-A and get hit hard. He doesn't have to stuff to blow anyone away. No one has projected him to be more than a # 3 starter. Why do we think he is going to set the world on fire right out of the gate?

    He has pitched well in two spring games. We know that means very little at this point of the spring. Hitters have no timing. Finesse pitchers usually perform well early in the spring if they can get their breaking ball over. Spring results have to be weighed carefully. Otherwise, Josias Manzanillo would have represented the Reds in the 2003 all-star game after he went the whole spring without allowing a run and made the club.
    Last edited by redsof72; 03-12-2010 at 10:29 AM.

  14. #43
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    I am not sold on Leake yet. Not saying I am necessarily a doubter, just not sold yet. I saw his outing Wednesday on TV. His stuff is average. He had a tremendous year in 09, we know that. We also know he is a first round pick, meaning he and Kip Wells are on even terms in that regard. I want to see something from Leake before I jump on the bandwagon.

    I think starting him in Double-A might be a bit high and maybe a bit of a gamble. I would rather see him follow the course that Alonso took last season...first couple of months in Lynchburg. Last thing you want to see is Leake go to Double-A and get hit hard. He doesn't have to stuff to blow anyone away. No one has projected him to be more than a # 3 starter. Why do we think he is going to set the world on fire right out of the gate?

    He has pitched well in two spring games. We know that means very little at this point of the spring. Hitters have no timing. Finesse pitchers usually perform well early in the spring if they can get their breaking ball over. Spring results have to be weighed carefully. Otherwise, Josias Manzanillo would have represented the Reds in the 2003 all-star game after he went the whole spring without allowing a run and made the club.
    Leake is much like the Alonso of pitchers. No 'superstar' tool, but very good across the board. Leake has an above average fastball, plus slider, above average change up, average curveball and plus control. While starting him in Lynchburg wouldn't hurt, I don't think he will struggle to start in Carolina either.

    As for his projection of a #3 starter.... its all based on stuff. There are plenty of #1 and #2 starters out there who don't have #1 or #2 'stuff', who get the job done as #1 and #2 pitchers.

    I wouldn't exactly lump Leake in there as a finesse pitcher. Bronson Arroyo is a finesse pitcher, who gets by on a high 80's fastball. Leake threw more 92 MPH fastball's in one game last season in the AFL than Arroyo threw all season long. I think Leake's polish somehow gets his fastball underplayed. He work 88-92 and gets up to 94 MPH. Plus fastball? No. But its not a finesse pitch either. Combined with its movement, its a well above average pitch.

  15. #44
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    I want to see the plus slider. Not that I am doubting he has it. But I am looking forward to seeing it. 88-92 is a pretty big range.

  16. #45
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    Re: Chapman, Leake, and Boxberger

    Well put Doug. I guess that's why you do this for a semi-living (or at least hobby?).

    I definitely don't see him as a "finesse" pitcher. Just because he doesn't throw 100 MPH doesn't mean he's finesse. He can get it up to 94MPH, but 90-ish with movement and control is more impressive. That'll "blow away" more hitters than guys who just throw heat by people.

    I think he would dominate AA hitters. At worse he starts out there, and quickly moves to AAA.
    I think only the fact that Maloney pitched in the bigs last year gives him the upper hand at this point. He did look better in his second call up, although he still gives up the gopher ball at an alarming rate. I think that is going to continue to be a problem for him.

    Leake is a groundball-inducing machine.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009


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