The only reason you need to know why Chapman will start in the Minors...

[Kingspoint]

Because the REDS are going to have to medically study his arm over a period of months while he has a series of starts in regular season games.

They can't do this at the Major Leauge level as his playing time would hinge on situation and Dusty Baker, along with the fact that they'd find it hard to control what he throws.

The REDS have very little information on Chapman's "exact" past as far as innings pitched, what he threw in those starts, etc., etc..

The REDS are going to have to have him throw in the minors under "controlled conditions"; and, then they'll peform ongoing medical tests to see how his arm reacts.

Only after they have this information can they come up with a "plan for his future that includes letting him loose in the Majors".

Any plan other than this is not prudent, and they didn't invest all of that money so that he can throw one season and then have an injury.

While he's in the minors, they are also going to tweek his mechanics so that his arm lasts through the life of the contract, and so he can get to 210-220 innings on a regular basis without fear of harm to the arm.

The REDS are going to be very, very careful with this "child".

It's practically like adopting a kid from Africa. You're going to spend the first year doing all types of adjustments both medically and physically to the child.

[Griffey012]

Because the REDS are going to have to medically study his arm over a period of months while he has a series of starts in regular season games.

They can't do this at the Major Leauge level as his playing time would hinge on situation and Dusty Baker, along with the fact that they'd find it hard to control what he throws.

The REDS have very little information on Chapman's "exact" past as far as innings pitched, what he threw in those starts, etc., etc..

The REDS are going to have to have him throw in the minors under "controlled conditions"; and, then they'll peform ongoing medical tests to see how his arm reacts.

Only after they have this information can they come up with a "plan for his future that includes letting him loose in the Majors".

Any plan other than this is not prudent, and they didn't invest all of that money so that he can throw one season and then have an injury.

While he's in the minors, they are also going to tweek his mechanics so that his arm lasts through the life of the contract, and so he can get to 210-220 innings on a regular basis without fear of harm to the arm.

The REDS are going to be very, very careful with this "child".

It's practically like adopting a kid from Africa. You're going to spend the first year doing all types of adjustments both medically and physically to the child.

"Tweaking" his mechanics just gives me chills. If he has thrown this way his whole life just leave him be, tweaking the mechanics will probably do more damage than prevent damage. To me his mechanics look pretty fluid and solid, very effortless arm motion.

[BLEEDS]

And what factually based information are you basing this on exactly?

They have his "info" from his time on the Cuban team.

Dr. Kremcheck did an MRI on him, and said it was the most pristine he's ever seen, remarkably so.
That, combined with his ridiculously effortless delivery, have me thinking this is one of the least concerns they have at this point.

They are going to pitch him where all the evidence says he needs to pitch.
If anything, they are probably more concerned with keeping him in the minors for a bit, just to avoid allowing him to get to a "Super 2" thereby activing some contract clauses that allow him to get more money out of his current contract.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[SidneySlicker]

King I just don't get why you are so mental when it comes to the the reds pitchers arms. If this kid hits his cieling for potential do you think he'll be here more than 6 years anyway? Pitching injuries have just as much to do with genetics as it does i.p. etc. If the Reds want to bring Chapman up north to start the season, great. If they don't feel he's ready yet and want him to spend some time in the minors great. You have to get over this, handling pitchers with kid gloves mentality.

[Mr Larkin]

Not so sure about all the medical stuff. Looks like they could simply monitor him closely during ST. I'm just excited that he is pitching so well out of the gate.

[defender]

I think those are additional factors. Until yesterday, I don't think anyone expected him to make the team this Spring. After only 3 IP, I think we can still assume he will not make the team. I do not think he will pitch this well all Spring. If he does, I hope he makes the team.

[Kingspoint]

"Tweaking" his mechanics just gives me chills. If he has thrown this way his whole life just leave him be, tweaking the mechanics will probably do more damage than prevent damage. To me his mechanics look pretty fluid and solid, very effortless arm motion.

These are experts. They are going to tweek him for the better.

[Kingspoint]

And what factually based information are you basing this on exactly?

Common Sense

[Kingspoint]

Bryan Price's comments:

"It’s not unrealistic to see (him making the club)," said Price. "But in the same respect, there’s a lot of spring to go. There’s a lot of decisions to be made. I don’t think that decision is going to be made until we get a lot closer to the end, and there’s a lot more involved than performance. But, right now, I hope he forces our hand."

[BLEEDS]

Bryan Price's comments:

"It’s not unrealistic to see (him making the club)," said Price. "But in the same respect, there’s a lot of spring to go. There’s a lot of decisions to be made. I don’t think that decision is going to be made until we get a lot closer to the end, and there’s a lot more involved than performance. But, right now, I hope he forces our hand."

Right, like FINANCES.
If you think this implies anything about "measuring the affect of workload on his elbow in carefully controlled conditions and performing a series of ongoing medical tests", then I don't know what to tell you.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Griffey012]

These are experts. They are going to tweek him for the better.

Half of the people who may "tweak" him probably don't have a clue about the science of the arm and the muscles, I am sure they have never studied anything about Kinesiology and how certain pitches pressure and strain certain parts of the arm/body during delivery. Most of these guys are coaches who played the game and that is what got them into the role they are in. A majority of pitching coaches are great about pitching strategy, pitch types, drills, and routines, but most all of them don't really know much about what causes injuries. Their aspects of proper arm motion and deliveries is usually old school, such as throwing sidearm hurts your elbow, those who said guys like Mark Prior had good mechanics, etc.

When you are talking about a 30 million dollar investment on a lefty that hits 100 with a fluid looking delivery, I don't want any of our so called "experts" tweaking anything to do with his arm. If it is rubber position, pitching strategy, etc than I am fine with that, but if they are tweaking to prevent injury it will backfire.

[lidspinner]

Common Sense

is this the same common sense that told you there was no way that Yonder would not start at 1st base on this team and have votto in LF?

Kings, your in my fav 3 as far as posters on this site....but I think you are stretching things a bit far with this one....Chapman will start for the Reds if they think his arm belongs there....just as Yonder will not force Votto to LF.

[BLEEDS]

Fay - Jocketty on Chapman's chances

Quote:
“We can’t let one or two outings sway our decisions,” Jocketty said. ”I don’t think our position has changed. We’re still evaluating. Our plan is the same. We’ll put him out there every few days and continue to have Bryan (Price) work on things he’s work on. We’re still trying to address the cultural issues (Chapman) has to deal with. We’ll see how it goes.”

For the rest of the post:
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...pmans-chances/

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
TRANSLATION:

Don't get your hopes up -- we structured his contract this way for a reason.

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

And thank goodness too. The Reds simply cannot afford to enter the Super 2 status situation with Chapman. They would be paying him Arroyo/Harang beginning immediately and control him for 3 years at that cost. Think about it...3 years/$30M or 6 years/$30M (i think or is it 5 years)? They can bring Chapman up in late May. The 5th starter (who admittedly won't be great) will get what, maybe 6 starts? Owings/Maloney/Lehr...someone can do it. If the club is building for the future, then they need to wait on Chapman. As Mike said, 2010 isn't likely to be the year for the Reds anyway.

Sums up my opinions, which seem to be in the vast majority.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[HayPay]

Im pretty sure he goes to the minors till the All Star break. They will slowly stretch his arm out over the 1st 3 months and monitor his progress. He will start out throwing 70 to 80 pitch outings I project. This will limit his innings on the year. He hasnt pitched for over a year.
If at the All-Star break the Reds are within 6 or 7 games he can come in with a fresh arm and start giving us 100 pitches per outing.
Its just the way things are in baseball nowadays I cant see the Reds letting this guy go more than 140-150 inn this year.
Look at Joba, Look at Neftali Feliz?

John M

[Kingspoint]

Right, like FINANCES.

If you think this implies anything about "measuring the affect of workload on his elbow in carefully controlled conditions and performing a series of ongoing medical tests", then I don't know what to tell you.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

FINANCES is EXACTLY (I can use caps, too.) what I'm talking about. It's the investment that they made in him why he WILL BE starting in the minors. My whole point has been about FINANCES.

So, I agree with you that FINANCES will determine where he starts, and in order to protect their investment, they are going to start him in the minors "no matter how well he pitches in Spring Training".