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Thread: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

  1. #136
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    100% correct. Having him pitch like Cy Young in Sept means absolutely nothing for this franchise if he pitches like Anthony Young in April, May and June.
    You're not President if you lose the primary.

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  3. #137
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    You're not President if you lose the primary.
    Except for the fact that teams aren't eliminated at the end of June -- there is no forced exit as there is in a primary. Sure, teams choose to quit on the season sometimes, but that's on them. Arroyo wouldn't help the Reds in terms of being a trade asset if he struggled in the first half again, but at the end of 162, all the games count the same.

    If what you care about is a guys' contribution towards your final record at the end of the seasons, a repeat of last year from Arroyo should be perfectly acceptable, if admittedly not ideal.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 03-21-2010 at 02:47 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #138
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Except for the fact that teams aren't eliminated at the end of June -- there is no forced exit as there is in a primary. Sure, teams choose to quit on the season sometimes, but that's on them. Arroyo wouldn't help the Reds in terms of being a trade asset if he struggled in the first half again, but at the end of 162, all the games count the same.

    If what you care about is a guys' contribution towards your final record at the end of the seasons, a repeat of last year from Arroyo should be perfectly acceptable, if admittedly not ideal.
    Sure, it's "on the team" and FO, but I think you know what I mean. If, in Arroyo's first three months, they win 12 of his 17 starts, then he increases the likelihood of the team being in the race (and thus in the hunt for trades that will bolster the lineup and starting rotation--making Arroyo's contributions--good or bad--less relevant); if, on the other hand, the team loses 12 of his first 17 starts and his RA in those starts warrant those losses, then the likelihood of the Reds being in the hunt greatly diminishes, and the likelihood of adding talent at the deadline does as well.

    I think they should have turned his great Augusts and Septembers into something less volatile--like a good bat. His 1.50 ERAs in August & Sept do nothing for a team that's 10 or 12 games out. I would love to see that he has an excellent ERA through the first three months of the season--as it will mean the Reds will likely matter much later into the season (regardless of what Arroyo does post-July 31).

  5. #139
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Sure, it's "on the team" and FO, but I think you know what I mean. If, in Arroyo's first three months, they win 12 of his 17 starts, then he increases the likelihood of the team being in the race (and thus in the hunt for trades that will bolster the lineup and starting rotation--making Arroyo's contributions--good or bad--less relevant); if, on the other hand, the team loses 12 of his first 17 starts and his RA in those starts warrant those losses, then the likelihood of the Reds being in the hunt greatly diminishes, and the likelihood of adding talent at the deadline does as well.

    I think they should have turned his great Augusts and Septembers into something less volatile--like a good bat. His 1.50 ERAs in August & Sept do nothing for a team that's 10 or 12 games out. I would love to see that he has an excellent ERA through the first three months of the season--as it will mean the Reds will likely matter much later into the season (regardless of what Arroyo does post-July 31).
    I get what your saying, but last year, for example, Arroyo was 3-1 in April, 4-2 in May. He was only 1-4 in June. So while he had a lot of stinkers, his 8-8 through June suggest his performance wasn't the reason the Reds were out of it early. I think he had some awful games that skew the overall stats to a lot worse than how he performed on a game by game basis. He also had a few games where he pitched OK into the mid to late innings and he was run out there for an additional inning (as his role suggests) and gave up a late run or two to adversely impact his numbers. Its why Lollipop has it right. Arroyo is about innings and Quality Starts where he gives his team a chance to win. That's what he's paid for and he generally provides that.
    Last edited by mth123; 03-21-2010 at 04:37 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    You're not President if you lose the primary.
    The Reds went exactly .500 in Bronson's April/May/June starts last year.

    8-8

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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUReds View Post
    The Reds went exactly .500 in Bronson's April/May/June starts last year.

    8-8
    And ERA of about 7.00. In 4 starts he was an absolutely torch to the teams' bullpen, exiting after 1 inning, 3 2/3, 5, 5 1/3, down by a ridiculous amount of runs. All things are interrelated, and his starts like that taxed the pen.

    Obviously, Arroyo wasn't alone in that regard. A lot of Reds' pitchers stunk up the joint, but Arroyo's making the cash and that stuff shouldn't happen. As I said, I think he'd be a great pitcher in Dodger Stadium, but I think he's a bad choice for this park.

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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    And ERA of about 7.00. In 4 starts he was an absolutely torch to the teams' bullpen, exiting after 1 inning, 3 2/3, 5, 5 1/3, down by a ridiculous amount of runs. All things are interrelated, and his starts like that taxed the pen.

    Obviously, Arroyo wasn't alone in that regard. A lot of Reds' pitchers stunk up the joint, but Arroyo's making the cash and that stuff shouldn't happen. As I said, I think he'd be a great pitcher in Dodger Stadium, but I think he's a bad choice for this park.
    Clearly his June was bad, but plenty of good pitchers have bad months. It's just not a particularly damning criticism. It hardly makes him not valuable.

  9. #143
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUReds View Post
    Clearly his June was bad, but plenty of good pitchers have bad months. It's just not a particularly damning criticism. It hardly makes him not valuable.
    Compare his first 3 months to Cueto's or Harang's (who himself was battling aches and pains). Arroyo has crummy half-seasons.

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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    And ERA of about 7.00. In 4 starts he was an absolutely torch to the teams' bullpen, exiting after 1 inning, 3 2/3, 5, 5 1/3, down by a ridiculous amount of runs. All things are interrelated, and his starts like that taxed the pen.

    Obviously, Arroyo wasn't alone in that regard. A lot of Reds' pitchers stunk up the joint, but Arroyo's making the cash and that stuff shouldn't happen. As I said, I think he'd be a great pitcher in Dodger Stadium, but I think he's a bad choice for this park.
    Sabathia in 2009, April:

    5 starts, 1-2 record 17 earned runs.

    fantastic May and June, but July was pretty bad. August and September were beyond stellar. In May, CC had a start that lasted just over 1 inning.

    1 inning starts happen. not all the time, but they happen. Even to aces like CC.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #145
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Here is the thing... If they aren't extended, they likely don't sign. who pitches those innings?
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Sabathia in 2009, April:

    5 starts, 1-2 record 17 earned runs.

    fantastic May and June, but July was pretty bad. August and September were beyond stellar. In May, CC had a start that lasted just over 1 inning.

    1 inning starts happen. not all the time, but they happen. Even to aces like CC.
    I promise you Sabathia's ERA for a three month stretch (pick one) never approached 4.50, much less Arroyo's June 30th ERA of a high 6.

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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Here is the thing... If they aren't extended, they likely don't sign. who pitches those innings?
    Kyle Lohse, Jeff Suppan circa two years ago, Doug Davis. Each one for a fraction of what Arroyo has made over the last couple of seasons.

  14. #148
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Here is the thing... If they aren't extended, they likely don't sign. who pitches those innings?
    Exactly. Signing guys to lay down the inning foundation is an investment in Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, etc. Now in the last year of that, Leake, Wood and Chapman will also benefit while that innings foundation changes the guard from Arroyo and Harang to Bailey and Cueto. Seems like the right way to transition the staff to me.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #149
    Attack Cat! OUReds's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Compare his first 3 months to Cueto's or Harang's (who himself was battling aches and pains). Arroyo has crummy half-seasons.
    Well, here's one of Cueto's half seasons. 5.81 ERA, 62 IP, 3-5 record. The Reds went 6-9 in his July/Aug/Sep starts.

    Seems to me in Arroyo's terrible half season the Reds won more and he pitched far more innings.
    Last edited by OUReds; 03-21-2010 at 05:43 PM.

  16. #150
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Kyle Lohse, Jeff Suppan circa two years ago, Doug Davis. Each one for a fraction of what Arroyo has made over the last couple of seasons.
    The Reds may have been able to keep Lohse, but as I recall, you were possibly the only poster who was more wrong about him than I was. We both wanted him gone with a passion.

    Davis and Suppan maybe, but not sure why they would have come here exactly. They were in places where the team had a shot. Sometimes you gotta take it where you can get it. Arroyo was on board, doing the job and willing to stay. Not sure even at Arroyo's money, that those others were real options.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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