What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

[Falls City Beer]

Well, here's one of Cueto's half seasons. 5.81 ERA, 62 IP, 3-5 record. The Red's went 6-9 in his July/Aug/Sep starts.

Cueto makes peanuts and is 23.

[OUReds]

Cueto makes peanuts and is 23.

Ummm, Of course? And a good thing since he was far inferior to Arroyo.

Edit: Ok, maybe not far inferior, but inferior.

[mth123]

Another question FCB. Had the Reds let Arroyo walk and signed Suppan who put up ERAs of 4.96 and 5.29 in the two years in question while only throwing 177 and 161 inning respectively, it would have been a huge downgrade all the way around. So Suppan at say $8 Million per as opposed to Arroyo at his money wouldn't have been a good deal.

The grass is always greener. I'm guilty of that a lot myself.

[M2]

People simply will not accept FIP or SIERA or what-have-you as ways to measure performance outside of the context they're already familiar with.

I think it's more a case of "context they care about most." In the end, it's all about the run prevention. And there's lots of different ways to be a good, run preventing pitcher. It's a bit like the ending to The Beatles' "A Day in the Life" in that regard. You can start playing music in the same place, progress through the same notes, play the same number of notes and end in the same place, and it will sound like cacophony along the way because everybody will choose different routes to get there. In the end everybody wants a pitcher with a good ERA.

That does not mean people don't care about how it's achieved. In fact, I suspect most baseball fans and all baseball executives are extremely interested in how it's achieved and how repeatable a given pitcher's performance is. Yet skunkworks figures don't answer the broad question of "How'd he do?"

For instance, would you rather have a guy, like Arroyo, with a four-year ERA of 4.00 and an FIP of 4.49, or an ERA of 4.49 and an FIP of 4.00? That's a rhetorical question. You'll want the 4.00 ERA. Given the number of innings Arroyo threw it works out to 47.5 fewer runs over the course of four seasons. That's what you care about most, the runs. How the guy got there is the secondary conversation.

[edabbs44]

Here is the thing... If they aren't extended, they likely don't sign. who pitches those innings?

Let's see...they would have had to replace a crap year from Harang, a crap 1st half from Arroyo and an outstanding 2nd half from BA when the team was far out of the race. All for $25ishMM.

Tough task.

[edabbs44]

Another question FCB. Had the Reds let Arroyo walk and signed Suppan who put up ERAs of 4.96 and 5.29 in the two years in question while only throwing 177 and 161 inning respectively, it would have been a huge downgrade all the way around. So Suppan at say $8 Million per as opposed to Arroyo at his money wouldn't have been a good deal.

The grass is always greener. I'm guilty of that a lot myself.

Forget Suppan, pick anyone. The team wouldn't have fared all that worse and still had the money.

[OnBaseMachine]

Harang posted a 102 ERA+ in 2009. Hardly a crap year.

[M2]

Forget Suppan, pick anyone. The team wouldn't have fared all that worse and still had the money.

Replace Arroyo with a bad pitcher and you could be bleeding 5-10 games (dependent on how bad he is). That's a good bit worse.

And who cares if the Reds HAVE money? I suppose the team could keep it until a perfect player is willing to sign for 50 cents on the dollar. I believe his name will be Lefty Godot.

[edabbs44]

Replace Arroyo with a bad pitcher and you could be bleeding 5-10 games (dependent on how bad he is). That's a good bit worse.

And who cares if the Reds HAVE money? I suppose the team could keep it until a perfect player is willing to sign for 50 cents on the dollar. I believe his name will be Lefty Godot.

Or Aroldis Chapman, Or Rick Porcello. Or someone like that.

[TRF]

Hindsight is 20/20. NO ONE saw Harang's dropoff coming. Arroyo has at the very least pitched to his contract, and his 220 IP last year, and his average of 230 IP over his career as a Red say he's EXACTLY the kind of pitcher the Reds need to protect both the bullpen AND the young starters. I haven't always been high on Arroyo, but he's done his job.

[Falls City Beer]

Arroyo hasn't been a problem; in fact, he's mostly been an asset. But he's got to stop sucking for long stretches. Hell, just go on the DL.

[M2]

Or Aroldis Chapman, Or Rick Porcello. Or someone like that.

They could have drafted and signed Porcello had they dared to do it. They didn't dare it, so it didn't happen.

They signed Chapman, so apparently giving money to a few mostly productive major leaguers proved no impediment to that.

[westofyou]

Replace Arroyo with a bad pitcher and you could be bleeding 5-10 games (dependent on how bad he is). That's a good bit worse.

And who cares if the Reds HAVE money? I suppose the team could keep it until a perfect player is willing to sign for 50 cents on the dollar. I believe his name will be Lefty Godot.

Reds fan credo as they count the teams saved dollars...


"Nothing to be done."
- Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot

[RedsManRick]

For instance, would you rather have a guy, like Arroyo, with a four-year ERA of 4.00 and an FIP of 4.49, or an ERA of 4.49 and an FIP of 4.00? That's a rhetorical question. You'll want the 4.00 ERA. Given the number of innings Arroyo threw it works out to 47.5 fewer runs over the course of four seasons. That's what you care about most, the runs. How the guy got there is the secondary conversation.

You say it's a case of context they care about. I agree with that. Let's measure what the pitcher actually did rather than giving him credit for some combination of what he did, his fielders did, the park did, etc.

You supposing an alternative choice that really doesn't exist when you suggest that there are pitchers who routinely and predictably put up ERA's lower than their FIP would suggest. My contention is that Arroyo is an exception to the rule. Pitchers perform based on their skill and we should judge them accordingly. ERA gives pitchers credit for things out of his control -- I'm not sure why that's the context we should care about.

ERA is already a step towards crediting runs allowed by a team to the pitcher by removing the influence of poor defensive play. Fielding independent stats simply do the same thing, but better.

[edabbs44]

Hindsight is 20/20. NO ONE saw Harang's dropoff coming. Arroyo has at the very least pitched to his contract, and his 220 IP last year, and his average of 230 IP over his career as a Red say he's EXACTLY the kind of pitcher the Reds need to protect both the bullpen AND the young starters. I haven't always been high on Arroyo, but he's done his job.

maybe not, but it didn't take a genius to see that Cincy would need some things to go their way in order to be able to contend during the extension years of Harang and Arroyo. Cordero also. That is the point.