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Thread: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

  1. #166
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Until the Reds win something, Jocketty has been no more successful than anyone before him. Kind of putting the cart before the horse.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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  3. #167
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    They could have drafted and signed Porcello had they dared to do it. They didn't dare it, so it didn't happen.

    They signed Chapman, so apparently giving money to a few mostly productive major leaguers proved no impediment to that.
    what Walt has spent since taking over pales in comparison to what the other guy spent. Some, humorously, referred to it as Walt being asleep on the job. Instead, it has enabled money to be allocated to the proper areas.

    Regarding Porcello, Cincy that year drafted a reach of a catcher over him. If that were 2008/2009, I wonder if Porcello would have been the selection.

    The money spent by Walt since he took the helm has been pennies compared to what we saw spent by his predecessor. Some, humorously, blamed it on Walt being asleep on the job.

    You can't tell me that there isn't a correlation to the Chapman signing.

  4. #168
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    You say it's a case of context they care about. I agree with that. Let's measure what the pitcher actually did rather than giving him credit for some combination of what he did, his fielders did, the park did, etc.

    You supposing an alternative choice that really doesn't exist when you suggest that there are pitchers who routinely and predictably put up ERA's lower than their FIP would suggest. My contention is that Arroyo is an exception to the rule. Pitchers perform based on their skill and we should judge them accordingly. ERA gives pitchers credit for things out of his control -- I'm not sure why that's the context we should care about.

    ERA is already a step towards crediting runs allowed by a team to the pitcher by removing the influence of poor defensive play. Fielding independent stats simply do the same thing, but better.
    I could have sworn that I typed, "In the end everybody wants a pitcher with a good ERA." In case that was too subtle, I'm saying ERA IS the context. In fact, I think the example I typed, and that you quoted, lays that out about as nakedly as it can be laid out. I certainly don't see you making a case for the guy with the 4.49 ERA and 4.00 FIP (largely because there is no case to be made).

    All you're doing is repeating that there's more to the story. I agree. Hell, I knew that when I was a kid. I think everybody knows that. Frankly, I don't know exactly who or what it is that you're arguing with if your only point is that we can go a lot deeper into pitcher performance than ERA. I've never seen nor heard anybody argue to the contrary.

    FIP, predictably, keeps getting tweaked. We've got xFIP and now SIERA. We'll have half a dozen other improvements/forks/divergences in the next decade. All the while people will be debating over how to use these exotic new numbers and insisting they're the bees knees.

    And despite all that, when somebody asks how John Doe pitched during a given slice of time we'll still use ERA or ERA+ as the primary figure to sum it all up. Actually there is a stat out there which more thoughtfully assigns run responsibility, incorporates win performance and works in component ERA. Unfortunately to do it, you have to abandon the dopey .xxx form factor which many supposedly open minded stats-minded fans cling to with religious fervor, so they ignore that much of what they're trying to achieve with each new flavor of pitcher stat chewing gum (a thumbnail representation of contribution) has already been chewed and digested.
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  5. #169
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Here is the thing... If they aren't extended, they likely don't sign. who pitches those innings?
    Completely disagree with the premise. They both were signed, two years before the team lost control of them. If they just waited one year to sign the extensions, both would have signed, and for much less money.

    Give me a good reason why they wouldn't, when they gladly did a year earlier. And the Reds clearly would have had the money.

    Sign them both to deals worth $2M a year each, which would have been overpaying them enough to stay, and that's $4M a year the Reds could have saved over three years.

    No need to wait until they reach free agency. Just do what most teams do, sign good pitchers to extensions the year before they reach free agency, not two.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  6. #170
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Until the Reds win something, Jocketty has been no more successful than anyone before him. Kind of putting the cart before the horse.
    You noticed that too.

    Well he has added some aging veterans on the downside of their careers, I am sure Kremchek appreciates the business.

    They did add a lot of puffery about young minor league prospects, I am sure that Bats fans are thrilled.

    I guess none of that actually goes in the books as wins though does it for the Reds.

  7. #171
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Porcello, Cincy that year drafted a reach of a catcher over him. If that were 2008/2009, I wonder if Porcello would have been the selection.
    I don't require a recap of the 2006 draft. I was the guy arguing the Reds should have been in on Porcello while the team was drafting Mesoraco.

    As for 2008, the Reds did spend money on Alonso, once again showing that paying for certain veterans is not an impediment to spending money in the draft. In 2009, the Reds passed by some supposed Porcellos (Zacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke) - I say "supposed" because I view Porcello as a fairly unique talent, one who isn't going to duplicated all that often - in favor of what many viewed as a budget-conscious pick in Mike Leake (and I liked the Leake pick regardless of that criticism).

    On Chapman, the Reds traded FOR Scott Rolen's salary during the 2009 season and didn't dump any of the team's biggest contracts during the winter, and STILL signed Chapman. So, once again, your argument just doesn't hold water. The one doesn't preclude the other. If anything, Walt deserves the most credit for not buying into that false dichotomy.
    Last edited by M2; 03-21-2010 at 08:49 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  8. #172
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    No need to wait until they reach free agency. Just do what most teams do, sign good pitchers to extensions the year before they reach free agency, not two.
    Who are these "most teams?" The Phillies plunked down early on Cole Hamels. The Indians plunked down early on C.C. Sabathia. The Giants locked up Matt Cain and would love to do the same with Tim Lincecum. The Royals have signed Zack Greinke early.

    I could keep listing examples all day if I wanted to, but I think you get the point. When teams get good pitchers, they try to keep them around. Harang and Arroyo have been two of the better Reds pitchers of the past 40 years. It's not terribly surprising the franchise didn't want to flirt with free agency or an exploding market in those two cases.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  9. #173
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    It's really sad that a roughly average pitcher is counted as one of the better pitchers to wear a Reds uniform over 40 decades....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #174
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Eh, I'll just bow out of this discussion. We've had this same discussion hundreds of time before and people are going to believe what they want to believe. I don't like obessing over every contract. If a player is making a lot of money and not producing, then I can understand the uproar. I'll probably be right there complaining too. But I really don't care about how much money a player is making as long as he's producing.
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 03-21-2010 at 09:50 PM.

  11. #175
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't require a recap of the 2006 draft. I was the guy arguing the Reds should have been in on Porcello while the team was drafting Mesoraco.

    As for 2008, the Reds did spend money on Alonso, once again showing that paying for certain veterans is not an impediment to spending money in the draft. In 2009, the Reds passed by some supposed Porcellos (Zacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke) - I say "supposed" because I view Porcello as a fairly unique talent, one who isn't going to duplicated all that often - in favor of what many viewed as a budget-conscious pick in Mike Leake (and I liked the Leake pick regardless of that criticism.

    On Chapman, the Reds traded FOR Scott Rolen's salary during the 2009 season and didn't dump any of the team's biggest contracts during the winter, and STILL signed Chapman. So, once again, your argument just doesn't hold water. The one doesn't preclude the other. If anything, Walt deserves the most credit for not buying into that false dichotomy.
    We have no insight on how the money part of the Reds' business works except that they don't have a ton of it. But I believe that the Chapman deal is set up where the money is paid more down the line than right now. Correct me if I am wrong. My guess is that the money coming off the books over the next 2 years gave Cincy the flexibility to go out and get him. If Walt continued the foolish chase that was going on before he got here, we'd probably have been looking to dump Bradley's salary this offseason and have been pissing and moaning that a guy like Chapman was out of our reach yet again.

  12. #176
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's really sad that a roughly average pitcher is counted as one of the better pitchers to wear a Reds uniform over 40 decades....
    It is what it is. Even the BRM was lacking in the starting pitching department. Might have won an extra division or two if it had a Bronson Arroyo around.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  13. #177
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I get the impression that some Reds fans care more about how much money a player makes than they do about winning.
    There is absolutely nothing wrong with paying for productive players.

  14. #178
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Who are these "most teams?" The Phillies plunked down early on Cole Hamels. The Indians plunked down early on C.C. Sabathia. The Giants locked up Matt Cain and would love to do the same with Tim Lincecum. The Royals have signed Zack Greinke early.

    I could keep listing examples all day if I wanted to, but I think you get the point. When teams get good pitchers, they try to keep them around. Harang and Arroyo have been two of the better Reds pitchers of the past 40 years. It's not terribly surprising the franchise didn't want to flirt with free agency or an exploding market in those two cases.
    You are putting Harang and Arroyo in the same catagory has Hamels, CC, Cain, Greinke and Lincecum?

    Really???

    Harang is the only one even close and was 29 when the Reds signed him to an extension. That around 5 years older than the guys you mentioned when they signed.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  15. #179
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I get the impression that some Reds fans care more about how much money a player makes than they do about winning. If a player produces, I don't really care about how much money he's making.
    You are really missing the point.

    In 2006, Wayne made a great trade and got Arroyo at cut rate prices for basically nothing. BA goes on to have a very good year. He now has him under control for 2 more years at $7MMish total. Still a great contract.

    The team looks to be lacking at the major league level in the short term but has a few top flight prospects on their way up through the ranks.

    Wayne has basically three choices: stand pat, trade Arroyo high with the future in mind or extend him. He picked the worst direction.

    Your post above, however, is kind of contradictory. You state that you believe that certain fans care about money more than winning, then go on to say that you don't care how much a player makes as long as he is producing. You don't mention winning.

    The bottom line is that we can rip off stats on how certain people have performed and whether or not he has earned his contract. But bottom line is that the team has failed to win after we saw a lot of money go out the door on various players. It is unlikely that this team will be a contender this season, which is when Arroyo's and Harang's extensions end.

    They can "earn" their contracts all they want, but if the overall investment that was made in 2007-2008 doesn't end up in a significantly improved ballclub, it is a failure no matter how you slice it. It doesn't matter how one of the larger pieces of the investment fares in one season, or in one half of one season, or whatever. It matters how the team does.

  16. #180
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    You are putting Harang and Arroyo in the same catagory has Hamels, CC, Cain, Greinke and Lincecum?

    Really???

    Harang is the only one even close and was 29 when the Reds signed him to an extension. That around 5 years older than the guys you mentioned when they signed.
    No, I'm saying teams routinely lock up the best they've got. It's all relative. To lead their staff, the Reds found two slightly older guys who were still shy of free agency and they reacted in common fashion. It's the same free agency clock no matter how you slice it.

    If Cueto's really good the next two years, expect the Reds to lock him up early and buy a year or two beyond his free agent expiration date.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


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