Not sure its so clear cut. For the player, the motivation to sign early is all about limiting risk. That is the risk that he'll get injured or tank before he has a chance to hit the market. Cincy is a town that pretty much every decent player wanted to get away from in the last decade. They could get no free agent to come here and had to pay Eric Milton more than double his market value just to get him. Just getting Arroyo and Harang to agree to stay and provide some foundation of a rotation to build around was a fairly major accomplishment. Had the Reds let it get too close, they too would have had little motivation to stay. The rest is revisionist history. Perhaps we long for the days of Paul Wilson and Jimmy Haynes? That's what the Reds were probably looking at had Arroyo and Harang not locked up. While I agree that its true that the reds still had little chance to win with them, the organization got out of the laughingstock group by having them around. Having those vets in the rotation restored some kind of order to allow the team to try to develop the kids who are the real future. Who knows how it would have happend? Cueto could be toast now had they not been here. Bailey may have stayed in the big leagues by default, flamed out and gone on to find it some where else a la Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd or dare I say Chris Carpenter. There are a lot of might have beens, they don't all involve the Reds using that money to put a championship team in place. They likely would just be treading water.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
If a team waits every time, the majority of the pitchers they wait on will decrease in value, and thus require a smaller contract to resign, than will increase or even stay the same.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
Potentially, and I say potentially because it's not a settled matter yet, extending Arroyo could be a masterstroke, a win regardless of whether the Reds keep him or move him.
Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong
I'm witchcrafting everybody.
And it's not like 25 year-olds are magic. You can lock up a dud like Jeremy Bonderman or coyote arm it get free of a Scott Kazmir. Smart people are running those teams and I'll guarantee you they only wish they had given their money to some 29 year-old late bloomer like the Reds did.
As for the general philosophy of waiting to sign pitchers. While you certainly will pay if you sign a guy after his best season, that same pitcher has the same motivation not to sign after his value dips. The team also loses the offer of security if it waits until that last year.
If I've got two years remaining under team control and I can sign a handsome three- or four-year deal that also saves the club some money, then I'm getting security. I'm set for life if something goes wrong and I can always see if that mammoth free agent pay date is on the table when the deal expires.
Meanwhile if I'm a year away from agency and I'm a good pitcher, then I'm earning a fat paycheck for the next year no matter what and I've probably already got a few million in the bank. In the worst case scenario, I'm a multimillionaire. And if I pitch well, I'm filthy rich in another year. The security the team could have offered me a year ago has pretty much evaporated and it would be kind of foolish of me to sign a hometown discount extension if I'm working purely on business terms. I'm through most of the risk and a substantial reward is a season away. Really, the only reason for me to entertain anything less than what I think I'd get on the open market is if I didn't want to relocate or if I thought my arm was going to fall off. Otherwise, the club missed its window.
Last edited by M2; 03-21-2010 at 10:37 PM.
I'm witchcrafting everybody.
Unless they make it extremely deep into the playoffs this season with Arroyo playing an integral part, I wouldn't be able to see how the extension could ever be called a masterstroke.
I'm witchcrafting everybody.
If I am looking at another subpar year from this team, I'll take the $20MM anyday, especially now that we have a GM that knows how to utilize money.
That's the difference now. In the past, we've had bumbling GMs who had no idea how to run a team. Excess money didn't mean as much in the end because they'd probably just piss it away on useless players.
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I think that should say, now that we have, and have had......a GM. Won't he have had about the same amount of time at the midway point this season as the previous "bumbling GM's" ?If I am looking at another subpar year from this team, I'll take the $20MM anyday, especially now that we have a GM that knows how to utilize money.
So then you do expect major improvements this season and next with this GM, his manager and the Reds organization, as far as winning games on the playing field goes?
Do you really think that the inconsistent, or aging and declining veterans that this GM has added will make that much of an improvement over the competition in the Central?
Or will he have to wait until those draft picks of pitchers and fielders from the previous "bumbling GM's", who had no idea, wait until those prospects mature and produce for him?
Do you anticipate that when the Harang, Arroyo and Cordero contracts are off the books that he will make a major splash in acquiring better pitching and offense/defense players?
Last edited by Spring~Fields; 03-22-2010 at 11:14 AM.
Personally, i don't care what the payroll is if the team produces. Barring that I don't care what a player makes if he earns his contract. Would it have been better to wait a year? maybe. but then that sends a message too, one that says the Reds are not willing to pay for talent. Sometimes you do have to overspend a little. Arroyo isn't overpaid for his performance. Harang wouldn't have been had it not been for injury and a whole lot of bad luck. And i doubt you can quantify how much value there is to Bailey, Cueto and whoever the 5th starter is in having 2 200+ inning horses in the rotation, easing the burden.
Suck it up cupcake.
I wonder if a thought of the Griffey or Dunn contracts coming off played any role in the decisions at the time of the signings of Harang and Arroyo, as the plan might have been looking forward with those changes in consideration.Personally, i don't care what the payroll is if the team produces. Barring that I don't care what a player makes if he earns his contract. Would it have been better to wait a year? maybe. but then that sends a message too, one that says the Reds are not willing to pay for talent. Sometimes you do have to overspend a little. Arroyo isn't overpaid for his performance. Harang wouldn't have been had it not been for injury and a whole lot of bad luck. And i doubt you can quantify how much value there is to Bailey, Cueto and whoever the 5th starter is in having 2 200+ inning horses in the rotation, easing the burden.