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Thread: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

  1. #181
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    There is absolutely nothing wrong with paying for productive players.
    If the payment is significant, I would argue that it is a problem if it doesn't result in an improved product on the field.

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  3. #182
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    No, I'm saying teams routinely lock up the best they've got. It's all relative. To lead their staff, the Reds found two slightly older guys who were still shy of free agency and they reacted in common fashion. It's the same free agency clock no matter how you slice it.

    If Cueto's really good the next two years, expect the Reds to lock him up early and buy a year or two beyond his free agent expiration date.
    There is so much of a difference between Arroyo's situation and the situations of these guys named here.

  4. #183
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    If the payment is significant, I would argue that it is a problem if it doesn't result in an improved product on the field.
    The product on the field has to improve with the signing of productive players.

  5. #184
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Completely disagree with the premise. They both were signed, two years before the team lost control of them. If they just waited one year to sign the extensions, both would have signed, and for much less money.

    Give me a good reason why they wouldn't, when they gladly did a year earlier. And the Reds clearly would have had the money.

    Sign them both to deals worth $2M a year each, which would have been overpaying them enough to stay, and that's $4M a year the Reds could have saved over three years.

    No need to wait until they reach free agency. Just do what most teams do, sign good pitchers to extensions the year before they reach free agency, not two.

    Not sure its so clear cut. For the player, the motivation to sign early is all about limiting risk. That is the risk that he'll get injured or tank before he has a chance to hit the market. Cincy is a town that pretty much every decent player wanted to get away from in the last decade. They could get no free agent to come here and had to pay Eric Milton more than double his market value just to get him. Just getting Arroyo and Harang to agree to stay and provide some foundation of a rotation to build around was a fairly major accomplishment. Had the Reds let it get too close, they too would have had little motivation to stay. The rest is revisionist history. Perhaps we long for the days of Paul Wilson and Jimmy Haynes? That's what the Reds were probably looking at had Arroyo and Harang not locked up. While I agree that its true that the reds still had little chance to win with them, the organization got out of the laughingstock group by having them around. Having those vets in the rotation restored some kind of order to allow the team to try to develop the kids who are the real future. Who knows how it would have happend? Cueto could be toast now had they not been here. Bailey may have stayed in the big leagues by default, flamed out and gone on to find it some where else a la Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd or dare I say Chris Carpenter. There are a lot of might have beens, they don't all involve the Reds using that money to put a championship team in place. They likely would just be treading water.
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  6. #185
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    The product on the field has to improve with the signing of productive players.
    Absolutely, but if the signing of productive players (e.g. Arroyo) doesn't result in an improvement, I think a reasonable person has the right to question whether or not it was the right move. Especially when it is surrounded by multiple other moves of similar or greater financial committments.

  7. #186
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    No, I'm saying teams routinely lock up the best they've got. It's all relative. To lead their staff, the Reds found two slightly older guys who were still shy of free agency and they reacted in common fashion. It's the same free agency clock no matter how you slice it.

    If Cueto's really good the next two years, expect the Reds to lock him up early and buy a year or two beyond his free agent expiration date.
    Right, smart teams sign 25 year old pitchers with TOR stuff to extensions early. Smart teams don't sign 29 year old pitchers, no matter how good they are to extensions two years before they become free agents. There is no need, it is smarter to wait at least a year.

    If a team waits every time, the majority of the pitchers they wait on will decrease in value, and thus require a smaller contract to resign, than will increase or even stay the same.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Wayne has basically three choices: stand pat, trade Arroyo high with the future in mind or extend him. He picked the worst direction.
    If Arroyo has a good first half of 2010, he'll probably be at his trade value apex. If so, extending him will have been the best of both worlds - he'll be earning his contract or the Reds will be able to cash him in for the maximum return.

    Potentially, and I say potentially because it's not a settled matter yet, extending Arroyo could be a masterstroke, a win regardless of whether the Reds keep him or move him.
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  9. #188
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Right, smart teams sign 25 year old pitchers with TOR stuff to extensions early. Smart teams don't sign 29 year old pitchers, no matter how good they are to extensions two years before they become free agents. There is no need, it is smarter to wait at least a year.

    If a team waits every time, the majority of the pitchers they wait on will decrease in value, and thus require a smaller contract to resign, than will increase or even stay the same.
    Most 29 year-olds don't have two years before they reach free agency for the first time. The Reds had two late bloomers on their hands. They could have quibbled with that or acted to lock up the best pitchers they'd found in a long time. They chose the latter. Ultimately, they'd have had to pay a lot more to get pitchers that good at that age on the free agent market.

    And it's not like 25 year-olds are magic. You can lock up a dud like Jeremy Bonderman or coyote arm it get free of a Scott Kazmir. Smart people are running those teams and I'll guarantee you they only wish they had given their money to some 29 year-old late bloomer like the Reds did.

    As for the general philosophy of waiting to sign pitchers. While you certainly will pay if you sign a guy after his best season, that same pitcher has the same motivation not to sign after his value dips. The team also loses the offer of security if it waits until that last year.

    If I've got two years remaining under team control and I can sign a handsome three- or four-year deal that also saves the club some money, then I'm getting security. I'm set for life if something goes wrong and I can always see if that mammoth free agent pay date is on the table when the deal expires.

    Meanwhile if I'm a year away from agency and I'm a good pitcher, then I'm earning a fat paycheck for the next year no matter what and I've probably already got a few million in the bank. In the worst case scenario, I'm a multimillionaire. And if I pitch well, I'm filthy rich in another year. The security the team could have offered me a year ago has pretty much evaporated and it would be kind of foolish of me to sign a hometown discount extension if I'm working purely on business terms. I'm through most of the risk and a substantial reward is a season away. Really, the only reason for me to entertain anything less than what I think I'd get on the open market is if I didn't want to relocate or if I thought my arm was going to fall off. Otherwise, the club missed its window.
    Last edited by M2; 03-21-2010 at 10:37 PM.
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  10. #189
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    If Arroyo has a good first half of 2010, he'll probably be at his trade value apex. If so, extending him will have been the best of both worlds - he'll be earning his contract or the Reds will be able to cash him in for the maximum return.

    Potentially, and I say potentially because it's not a settled matter yet, extending Arroyo could be a masterstroke, a win regardless of whether the Reds keep him or move him.
    Arroyo's trade value apex was the offseason of 2006-2007. He was coming off a very good year and had 2 years left at roughly the same amount of money that he'd be making in only the 2nd half of 2010. And in that offseason, money was flowing a lot more freely than it is now which makes that contract all the more attractive.

    Unless they make it extremely deep into the playoffs this season with Arroyo playing an integral part, I wouldn't be able to see how the extension could ever be called a masterstroke.

  11. #190
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Arroyo's trade value apex was the offseason of 2006-2007. He was coming off a very good year and had 2 years left at roughly the same amount of money that he'd be making in only the 2nd half of 2010. And in that offseason, money was flowing a lot more freely than it is now which makes that contract all the more attractive.

    Unless they make it extremely deep into the playoffs this season with Arroyo playing an integral part, I wouldn't be able to see how the extension could ever be called a masterstroke.
    As I remember it, the case against Arroyo in the winter of 2006-7 was that he was a one-hit wonder. True enough, that probably will be his best season, but since then he's established that he's pretty reliable. If he's going well through this summer, Arroyo's going to be one of the most attractive pitchers on the market (if he's on the market). And if he isn't on the market and he's going well, then the Reds are in contention and that extension got the team a major cog to being in contention. Once again, win-win. He's either a good pitcher to have or a good pitcher to trade. Once again, you could wait for a perfect contract with Lefty Godot, but Bronson Arroyo is half a season away from being everything a team could ask for on a two-year extension.
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  12. #191
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    As I remember it, the case against Arroyo in the winter of 2006-7 was that he was a one-hit wonder. True enough, that probably will be his best season, but since then he's established that he's pretty reliable. If he's going well through this summer, Arroyo's going to be one of the most attractive pitchers on the market (if he's on the market). And if he isn't on the market and he's going well, then the Reds are in contention and that extension got the team a major cog to being in contention. Once again, win-win. He's either a good pitcher to have or a good pitcher to trade. Once again, you could wait for a perfect contract with Lefty Godot, but Bronson Arroyo is half a season away from being everything a team could ask for on a two-year extension.
    If he is going well and the Reds are looking to trade him, will whatever he brings back plus his year and a half of service be worth $20MM to this team? I guess that's the question at hand.

    If I am looking at another subpar year from this team, I'll take the $20MM anyday, especially now that we have a GM that knows how to utilize money.

    That's the difference now. In the past, we've had bumbling GMs who had no idea how to run a team. Excess money didn't mean as much in the end because they'd probably just piss it away on useless players.

  13. #192
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Arroyo's trade value apex was the offseason of 2006-2007. He was coming off a very good year and had 2 years left at roughly the same amount of money that he'd be making in only the 2nd half of 2010. And in that offseason, money was flowing a lot more freely than it is now which makes that contract all the more attractive.

    Unless they make it extremely deep into the playoffs this season with Arroyo playing an integral part, I wouldn't be able to see how the extension could ever be called a masterstroke.
    Here was at least one argument/take for the extensions:

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Pecota thinks this about Harang in '07: W-L: 12-10; ERA: 4.21; 190 IP with no downside.

    A summary of the 5 gold standard projection systems available: W-L: 13-11; ERA: 4.12; 208 IP.

    Concerning Harang and Arroyo in '07: Basically all of the projection systems think they could be twins performance-wise this season.

    My take on the two and their contracts:

    Evaluating Arroyo on his '06 ERA will cause him to be overvalued. It was a fluky ERA driven in large part by a high LOB%. Dismissing his '06 as a fluke overall is not appropriate however ('06 mlb average for starters: FIP: 4.60; ERA: 4.60...Arroyo's '06 FIP: 4.14). He was an above average starting pitcher and will likely be one again this season. He's not a #1 by any stretch but he's pretty valuable and an absolute value relative to his salary. I'm not in love with his extension though. Its risky because by the final two years he's much more likely to simply be average or slightly below so there's a good chance he'll be overpaid. Even so having an average innings eater is a useful thing and there is something to be said for making a guy happy...those final two years are in a way making up for the extreme bargain they're getting right now. So while I'm not giddy about his extension, I'm not bothered that much by it either.

    Harang is absolutely what you see is what you get based upon his '06 (ERA: 3.76;FIP: 3.64). He might be one of the more underrated pitchers in the league if you surveyed casual fans or lazy talking heads who don't do their homework. I can guarantee you though there wouldn't be a GM in the league who wouldn't want him given his current contract (except maybe Florida but there are probably car dealerships in Cincinnati that have more inventory than the Marlins have payroll). I really like Harang's contract. While I think he's not going to develop into anything more than he already is (and I think many Reds fans overestimate what he will become), I think there is a great chance that he will justify it with his performance over the course of it. What he is already, is very good. He basically projects to consistently be the guy we saw in '06 for the next several years. Ya, I say. Thats a great thing. A lot of GMs are jealous.



    On a side note, VORP is a poor metric to evaluate pitchers. It's basically a fancy combination of ERA and innings pitched and the flaws in ERA have been long discussed here and other places.

    All that said, the way it was used in the above context doesn't bother me since it's basically saying Bronson and Harang are projected to be better than Meche in the future. VORP in and of itself however, has little predictive power and is really a pretty flawed stat for pitchers.
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  14. #193
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    That's the difference now. In the past, we've had bumbling GMs who had no idea how to run a team. Excess money didn't mean as much in the end because they'd probably just piss it away on useless players.
    If I am looking at another subpar year from this team, I'll take the $20MM anyday, especially now that we have a GM that knows how to utilize money.
    I think that should say, now that we have, and have had......a GM. Won't he have had about the same amount of time at the midway point this season as the previous "bumbling GM's" ?

    So then you do expect major improvements this season and next with this GM, his manager and the Reds organization, as far as winning games on the playing field goes?

    Do you really think that the inconsistent, or aging and declining veterans that this GM has added will make that much of an improvement over the competition in the Central?

    Or will he have to wait until those draft picks of pitchers and fielders from the previous "bumbling GM's", who had no idea, wait until those prospects mature and produce for him?

    Do you anticipate that when the Harang, Arroyo and Cordero contracts are off the books that he will make a major splash in acquiring better pitching and offense/defense players?
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 03-22-2010 at 11:14 AM.

  15. #194
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    If he is going well and the Reds are looking to trade him, will whatever he brings back plus his year and a half of service be worth $20MM to this team? I guess that's the question at hand.

    If I am looking at another subpar year from this team, I'll take the $20MM anyday, especially now that we have a GM that knows how to utilize money.

    That's the difference now. In the past, we've had bumbling GMs who had no idea how to run a team. Excess money didn't mean as much in the end because they'd probably just piss it away on useless players.
    What proof do you have that Walt knows how to spend the money he's been given? He hasn't been given a dime as GM of the Reds. Chapmans money came from the minor league payroll/signing pool. Rolen? We'll see if extending a 35 year old 3B with a history of back issues in the post (hopefully post) PED era is a good idea. Other than that, what has he spent money on? Organizational raises, WT, and that's about it. So if you think it's a good idea to not spend money, well, then ok.

    Personally, i don't care what the payroll is if the team produces. Barring that I don't care what a player makes if he earns his contract. Would it have been better to wait a year? maybe. but then that sends a message too, one that says the Reds are not willing to pay for talent. Sometimes you do have to overspend a little. Arroyo isn't overpaid for his performance. Harang wouldn't have been had it not been for injury and a whole lot of bad luck. And i doubt you can quantify how much value there is to Bailey, Cueto and whoever the 5th starter is in having 2 200+ inning horses in the rotation, easing the burden.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #195
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    What proof do you have that Walt knows how to spend the money he's been given?
    That's a good question

    Personally, i don't care what the payroll is if the team produces. Barring that I don't care what a player makes if he earns his contract. Would it have been better to wait a year? maybe. but then that sends a message too, one that says the Reds are not willing to pay for talent. Sometimes you do have to overspend a little. Arroyo isn't overpaid for his performance. Harang wouldn't have been had it not been for injury and a whole lot of bad luck. And i doubt you can quantify how much value there is to Bailey, Cueto and whoever the 5th starter is in having 2 200+ inning horses in the rotation, easing the burden.
    I wonder if a thought of the Griffey or Dunn contracts coming off played any role in the decisions at the time of the signings of Harang and Arroyo, as the plan might have been looking forward with those changes in consideration.


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