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Thread: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

  1. #91
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Two quick points about the above debate:

    1) Re-signing Phillips was a smart move at the time and has proven to be even smarter. He has provided $27.3M worth of value during his first two years of the contract, which will pay him $27 over four years. So even if he doesn't play another inning for the Reds, he has already supplied surplus value.

    2) In terms of replacing Harang and Arroyo, why not just replace them with Harang and Arroyo? If the Reds did not sign them to extensions, they would have been free agents and been able to be signed for around half of what they currently are getting.
    What I have started to believe, especially lately, is you don't extend players to big time contracts unless they are elite at their position. With all due respect to Phillips, I don't think he is in the same conversation with the best overall 2b. I think he is a very good 2b but don't think if I had to do it all over again I would committ the long term money to BP.

    Don't quite know where you have come up with Phillip's value so far, but I think right now the Reds would be much better off with the BP contract money and Frazier or Valakia at 2b instead of BP. They wouldn't be better defensively but I believe they would be better overall offensively. Also it isn't are the Reds better with BP or Frazier, but is are the Reds better with BP or Frazier + $10M/year?

    As for the Harang and Arroyo contracts I don't have much of a beef with them. They were signed around the time when middle of the rotation starters were getting around $10M/year. Just look at the Silva, Suppan, Marquis, etc. contracts signed around the same time. There is no way the Reds, or anyone in that matter, could have predicted the scale of the economic collapse which really made the contracts look bad. I think Harang was the better of the two contracts. He was looking like the Reds first bonified ace since Jose Rijo in his prime. No one could have predicted his struggles over the past two seasons. The Arroyo contract I think was done a little too quickly, but has been the better of the two signed.

    As for Cordero to me its really a toss up. While the Reds are paying a lot of money to a closer he has lived up to his contract. The argument you can make is that its a misappropriation of funds. Another factor is when the contract was signed and the collapse of the economy and the FA market. If the Reds signed CoCo with the idea of expanding payroll over the course of the next year then it made sense. But when the FA market went south the Reds could have gotten both Abreau and KRod for the amount of money Cordero was making.

    When you look at the 4 big deals right now the Reds have a lot of money committed to an above average 2b, two MOR pitchers, and a closer. Not bad players, but players who aren't worth their present day value of their contracts, especially when you take into consideration the recent FA markets.

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  3. #92
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    My take as well. I don't know whether O'Brien himself recognized the young talent, but he apparently understood having a minor league crew that was more interested in really scouting for skilled players and not looking for strip clubs.

    O'Brien was totally outclassed as a GM who assembles a major league team, however.

    Not sure I agree with your second point--primarily because he got so little chance and had tremendous constraints on what he could do, given what he had been left by Jimbo. He did release Danny Graves, trade the vastly overpaid Sean Casey, work out what seemed to me like a graceful way for Larkin to retire, outright D'Angelo Jimenez. That's pretty good work in my book. If he had to get people like Ramon Ortiz, that was largely because somebody had to throw the innings. There were no ready and available minor leaguers (our top pitching prospects, as I remember it, were Josh Hall and Dustin Moseley, both at AA) and precious little to trade for anything of quality. And, given the contracts of some of those I named above, there wasn't much available to spend on free agents.

  4. #93
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Frankly, I wouldn't have extended Phillips had you put a gun to my head. Or Arroyo for that matter.
    I wouldn't have either, neither of those two. Maybe they will get moved at the halfway point this year. Phillips would not be the only one qualified to be the cleanup batter either or used there. Maybe Gomes resolves that latter issue.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 03-20-2010 at 06:22 PM.

  5. #94
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Frankly, I wouldn't have extended Phillips had you put a gun to my head. Or Arroyo for that matter.
    Arroyo was a flat out bad move.

  6. #95
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Two quick points about the above debate:

    1) Re-signing Phillips was a smart move at the time and has proven to be even smarter. He has provided $27.3M worth of value during his first two years of the contract, which will pay him $27 over four years. So even if he doesn't play another inning for the Reds, he has already supplied surplus value.

    2) In terms of replacing Harang and Arroyo, why not just replace them with Harang and Arroyo? If the Reds did not sign them to extensions, they would have been free agents and been able to be signed for around half of what they currently are getting.
    Regarding Phillips, maybe be provided "surplus value", but we'll see if he helps this team get to where they need to be.

  7. #96
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    What I have started to believe, especially lately, is you don't extend players to big time contracts unless they are elite at their position. With all due respect to Phillips, I don't think he is in the same conversation with the best overall 2b. I think he is a very good 2b but don't think if I had to do it all over again I would committ the long term money to BP.

    Don't quite know where you have come up with Phillip's value so far, but I think right now the Reds would be much better off with the BP contract money and Frazier or Valakia at 2b instead of BP. They wouldn't be better defensively but I believe they would be better overall offensively. Also it isn't are the Reds better with BP or Frazier, but is are the Reds better with BP or Frazier + $10M/year?

    As for the Harang and Arroyo contracts I don't have much of a beef with them. They were signed around the time when middle of the rotation starters were getting around $10M/year. Just look at the Silva, Suppan, Marquis, etc. contracts signed around the same time. There is no way the Reds, or anyone in that matter, could have predicted the scale of the economic collapse which really made the contracts look bad. I think Harang was the better of the two contracts. He was looking like the Reds first bonified ace since Jose Rijo in his prime. No one could have predicted his struggles over the past two seasons. The Arroyo contract I think was done a little too quickly, but has been the better of the two signed.

    As for Cordero to me its really a toss up. While the Reds are paying a lot of money to a closer he has lived up to his contract. The argument you can make is that its a misappropriation of funds. Another factor is when the contract was signed and the collapse of the economy and the FA market. If the Reds signed CoCo with the idea of expanding payroll over the course of the next year then it made sense. But when the FA market went south the Reds could have gotten both Abreau and KRod for the amount of money Cordero was making.

    When you look at the 4 big deals right now the Reds have a lot of money committed to an above average 2b, two MOR pitchers, and a closer. Not bad players, but players who aren't worth their present day value of their contracts, especially when you take into consideration the recent FA markets.
    The Arroyo contract had no business being offered at that time with two years left on a well below market deal. It was a case of the GM falling in love with his "big" acquisition and letting his objectivity fall to the wayside.

  8. #97
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    The Arroyo contract had no business being offered at that time with two years left on a well below market deal. It was a case of the GM falling in love with his "big" acquisition and letting his objectivity fall to the wayside.
    Scott Rolen says hi.

    Every GM has his blind spots. However, Arroyo has produced. He's been frustrating at times, but he's an innings eater, and more often than not, give his offense a chance to win.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Scott Rolen says hi.

    Every GM has his blind spots. However, Arroyo has produced. He's been frustrating at times, but he's an innings eater, and more often than not, give his offense a chance to win.
    I'll take the Rolen trade 10 times out of 10. I liked the Arroyo trade, but you've got to know when to sell if you're gonna survive in this business (and that includes Walt).

  10. #99
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    I liked the decisions to extend Arroyo and Phillips. Harang too. People can call the Arroyo extension a bad move all they want, but the guy has consistenly thrown 200+ innings of league average or better baseball. Those types of pitchers don't grow on trees.

  11. #100
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I liked the decisions to extend Arroyo and Phillips. Harang too. People can call the Arroyo extension a bad move all they want, but the guy has consistenly thrown 200+ innings of league average or better baseball. Those types of pitchers don't grow on trees.
    The Cards turn up average/below average pitchers year after year after year--for very reasonable prices. No need to extend them.

    Harang's deal was certainly defensible.

  12. #101
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'll take the Rolen trade 10 times out of 10. I liked the Arroyo trade, but you've got to know when to sell if you're gonna survive in this business (and that includes Walt).
    He's what? 35?

    This ain't 1998. The likelihood he'll be on the DL this year is high. He hasn't played over 130 games since 2006, and in the 2 seasons prior to 2009 his highest OPS was .780.

    I wouldn't have made that trade 1 times out of 10, not because of EE, but because the Reds system was about to produce Frazier, Francisco and even Alonso.

    It was a classic case of buying high.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  13. #102
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Arroyo has a 113 ERA+ in 871.2 IP with the Reds. That's not average/below average, it's above average.

  14. #103
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Arroyo has a 113 ERA+ in 871.2 IP with the Reds. That's not average/below average, it's above average.
    ERA is a very weak argument.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    And, once again, jojo, FIP doesn't play well with Arroyo's success throughout his tenure as a Red. He's either a FIP outlier or one of the luckiest pitchers in modern baseball.

    ERA, perception, scouting, and almost every counting statistic in baseball pegs Arroyo as an above average starter.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: What did Walt Jocketty do differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    And, once again, jojo, FIP doesn't play well with Arroyo's success throughout his tenure as a Red. He's either a FIP outlier or one of the luckiest pitchers in modern baseball.

    ERA, perception, scouting, and almost every counting statistic in baseball pegs Arroyo as an above average starter.
    The guy would be great in Dodger Stadium.

    But pitching in the weakest division in the weaker league, he's pretty much the definition of snoozer. And now he doesn't K anybody anymore. I see no reason to keep him; I'd flip him for a bat in a heartbeat, but then, no one wants his contract.


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