Opening Day Roster Predictions

[MBZags]

Inspired by the thread in the ORG, I'd like to see everyone's predictions about the Opening Day roster. For the purposes of potential bragging rights , post the roster you think will happen, and not the roster you'd like to see. Of course, explanations for your choices and ideas for what you would do differently than the Reds are very welcome.

Rotation
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey
Travis Wood

Bullpen
Francisco Cordero
Nick Masset
Arthur Rhodes
Daniel Ray Herrera
Jared Burton
Micah Owings
Mike Lincoln

Infield/Catchers
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Orlando Cabrera
Scott Rolen
Aaron Miles
Paul Janish
Ramon Hernandez
Ryan Hanigan

Outfield
Jay Bruce
Chris Dickerson
Drew Stubbs
Jonny Gomes
Wladimir Balentien

So outside of the "locks," I think the last six players to make this team are Travis Wood, Micah Owings, Mike Lincoln, Aaron Miles, Paul Janish, and Wladimir Balentien.

Reasons:

Travis Wood - We've all see the articles about how it's down to Wood, Leake, and Chapman for the fifth starter's role. While Leake and Chapman will ultimately be the better major league pitchers, the Reds are likely to go the conservative route in this decision, in my opinion. Wood obviously has the most experience, considering the other two have none. Although Wood's control problems are a concern (9 BB in 14 innings this spring), he has still gotten the job done. Moreover, despite Wood's control problems, he and Leake have only a very negligible difference in WHIP this spring. If Wood struggles once the season opens, the Reds have a myriad of options to replace him with, including veterans and Leake/Chapman. Admittedly, Mike Leake has done a stellar job this spring and seems really poised. However, he lacks any professional experience, and I don't see the Reds taking the risk in going with Leake. Virtually no one makes the straight jump to the majors regardless of how talented that player may be. There is no rush to get Leake to the majors unless the staff really struggles out of the gate, and the Reds shouldn't be gung-ho about getting him service time and starting his arbitration clock. Likewise, the case is similar with Chapman. Given Chapman's contract structure, I don't see the Reds bringing Chapman on immediately. Also, Chapman's very slight setback with his back injury gives the Reds a reason (albeit not a great one) to start Chapman in the minors without admitting the contractual concerns.

Micah Owings - Owings has had a decent spring, and he obviously provides the Reds with an adequate pinch-hitter if necessary. The Reds need a long man out of the bullpen. Wells has been his atrocious self. Although Lehr has been good this spring, posting a 3.65 ERA, he just doesn't provide Owings' versatility.

Mike Lincoln - This is painful. Lincoln provided for a nice comeback story in 2008, but he still wasn't fantastic. The wheels completely came off in 2009, unfortunately, before an injury ended his season. Thus far in spring training, he hasn't shown much of a reason for the Reds to keep him. However, this is the Reds. With Lincoln scheduled to make $2.5 million, it seems like the Reds will at least try to get something out of Lincoln once the season starts before declaring him a sunk cost. In addition, Baker has stood up for Lincoln in the media, saying that he pitched well in his last outing, despite an error that ultimately cost the Reds the game. I'd much rather see the Reds go with Logan Ondrusek, who was outstanding today against the Dodgers, or Carlos Fisher, despite being limited in ST due to his elbow, or even someone the team already cut. But I think Lincoln is going to have to pitch poorly during the season for the Reds to cut him.

Aaron Miles - Another painful one that we'll have to endure. Miles is scheduled to make $2.7 million, and Jocketty seems infatuated with his grit and propensity to playing on winning teams. Coming off an injury this spring, though, Miles has been terrible, both offensively and defensively. Especially in lieu of Drew Sutton's mono last year and not playing at full strength, I wish the Reds would cut ties with Miles and give Sutton a shot at the utility role, but I don't see it happening.

Paul Janish - Cabrera is getting old, and by many accounts, he has lost a step. Janish is not "Manos de Oro" (who was really more like "Manos de Suck"), but his defensive prowess cannot be matched. While I wish the Reds never signed Cabrera, since the offensive upgrade may not be worth the defensive loss, I think the organization will have enough sense to keep Janish on as a defensive replacement and spot starter for Cabrera and Rolen.

Wladimir Balentien - Wlad is out of options, and the organization seems to believe in him as an MLB player. Laynce Nix has reached his ceiling as a baseball player, but Wlad still has room to grow. Nix also provides left-handed pop off the bench, but I don't think that positive is enough for the Reds to potentially lose Balentien.

[bgwilly31]

Inspired by the thread in the ORG, I'd like to see everyone's predictions about the Opening Day roster. For the purposes of potential bragging rights , post the roster you think will happen, and not the roster you'd like to see. Of course, explanations for your choices and ideas for what you would do differently than the Reds are very welcome.

Rotation
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey
Travis Wood

Bullpen
Francisco Cordero
Nick Masset
Arthur Rhodes
Daniel Ray Herrera
Jared Burton
Micah Owings
Mike Lincoln

Infield/Catchers
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Orlando Cabrera
Scott Rolen
Aaron Miles
Paul Janish
Ramon Hernandez
Ryan Hanigan

Outfield
Jay Bruce
Chris Dickerson
Drew Stubbs
Jonny Gomes
Wladimir Balentien

So outside of the "locks," I think the last six players to make this team are Travis Wood, Micah Owings, Mike Lincoln, Aaron Miles, Paul Janish, and Wladimir Balentien.

Reasons:

Travis Wood - We've all see the articles about how it's down to Wood, Leake, and Chapman for the fifth starter's role. While Leake and Chapman will ultimately be the better major league pitchers, the Reds are likely to go the conservative route in this decision, in my opinion. Wood obviously has the most experience, considering the other two have none. Although Wood's control problems are a concern (9 BB in 14 innings this spring), he has still gotten the job done. Moreover, despite Wood's control problems, he and Leake have only a very negligible difference in WHIP this spring. If Wood struggles once the season opens, the Reds have a myriad of options to replace him with, including veterans and Leake/Chapman. Admittedly, Mike Leake has done a stellar job this spring and seems really poised. However, he lacks any professional experience, and I don't see the Reds taking the risk in going with Leake. Virtually no one makes the straight jump to the majors regardless of how talented that player may be. There is no rush to get Leake to the majors unless the staff really struggles out of the gate, and the Reds shouldn't be gung-ho about getting him service time and starting his arbitration clock. Likewise, the case is similar with Chapman. Given Chapman's contract structure, I don't see the Reds bringing Chapman on immediately. Also, Chapman's very slight setback with his back injury gives the Reds a reason (albeit not a great one) to start Chapman in the minors without admitting the contractual concerns.

Micah Owings - Owings has had a decent spring, and he obviously provides the Reds with an adequate pinch-hitter if necessary. The Reds need a long man out of the bullpen. Wells has been his atrocious self. Although Lehr has been good this spring, posting a 3.65 ERA, he just doesn't provide Owings' versatility.

Mike Lincoln - This is painful. Lincoln provided for a nice comeback story in 2008, but he still wasn't fantastic. The wheels completely came off in 2009, unfortunately, before an injury ended his season. Thus far in spring training, he hasn't shown much of a reason for the Reds to keep him. However, this is the Reds. With Lincoln scheduled to make $2.5 million, it seems like the Reds will at least try to get something out of Lincoln once the season starts before declaring him a sunk cost. In addition, Baker has stood up for Lincoln in the media, saying that he pitched well in his last outing, despite an error that ultimately cost the Reds the game. I'd much rather see the Reds go with Logan Ondrusek, who was outstanding today against the Dodgers, or Carlos Fisher, despite being limited in ST due to his elbow, or even someone the team already cut. But I think Lincoln is going to have to pitch poorly during the season for the Reds to cut him.

Aaron Miles - Another painful one that we'll have to endure. Miles is scheduled to make $2.7 million, and Jocketty seems infatuated with his grit and propensity to playing on winning teams. Coming off an injury this spring, though, Miles has been terrible, both offensively and defensively. Especially in lieu of Drew Sutton's mono last year and not playing at full strength, I wish the Reds would cut ties with Miles and give Sutton a shot at the utility role, but I don't see it happening.

Paul Janish - Cabrera is getting old, and by many accounts, he has lost a step. Janish is not "Manos de Oro" (who was really more like "Manos de Suck"), but his defensive prowess cannot be matched. While I wish the Reds never signed Cabrera, since the offensive upgrade may not be worth the defensive loss, I think the organization will have enough sense to keep Janish on as a defensive replacement and spot starter for Cabrera and Rolen.

Wladimir Balentien - Wlad is out of options, and the organization seems to believe in him as an MLB player. Laynce Nix has reached his ceiling as a baseball player, but Wlad still has room to grow. Nix also provides left-handed pop off the bench, but I don't think that positive is enough for the Reds to potentially lose Balentien.

Whats the benifits of having mike lincoln on this team>>? We have to have somebody better than him in the farm system. Ive been listening to games here and there in the pre-season, and he is still just getting hammered.

ninja edit. I guess money is the answer to that. I think we should just eat the money. He is just going to be dreadful to watch when ever he is called out of the pen.

As for paul janish i disagree. We need to move on from that phase. Janish is not helpful to this squad. This squad needs bats and lots of them. And i for one am not even on the gravy train that people like to ride about janish being so Unbelievably good on defense. I dont think he is. I would say defensively wise hes not even top 20 in SS in the league. Move on.

[markymark69]

I agree with the original post on the pitching staff with the possible exception of Chapman for Wood. I think the Reds will want to quick return on their investment and put butts in the seats -- Chapman does that. As far as that first start on April 11 --- they could skip him and bring back Arroyo back on short rest or use Owings in a spot start. Otherwise Wood makes it.

The only adjustment I see with the position players is Sutton or Cairo over Janish. Sutton is a switch-hitter, they like him, and he can (gulp) back up shortstop. Cairo is a solid vet, who has had a decent a decent spring and can play first base in a pinch for Votto, there isn't anybody on the roster that can do that except Hernandez. Both, I think will hit better than Janish.

The other is possibly Nix over Balentien. I like Balentien, personally, but Nix gives them left-handed pop off the bench, which they have zilch without him, unless Bruce doesn't play. I don't like the out of options reason, but the Reds will most likely use that.

Another darkhorse is Castillo, just because of his versatility and he also is a switch-hitter.

[MBZags]

Whats the benifits of having mike lincoln on this team>>? We have to have somebody better than him in the farm system. Ive been listening to games here and there in the pre-season, and he is still just getting hammered.

ninja edit. I guess money is the answer to that. I think we should just eat the money. He is just going to be dreadful to watch when ever he is called out of the pen.

As for paul janish i disagree. We need to move on from that phase. Janish is not helpful to this squad. This squad needs bats and lots of them. And i for one am not even on the gravy train that people like to ride about janish being so Unbelievably good on defense. I dont think he is. I would say defensively wise hes not even top 20 in SS in the league. Move on.

I think the Reds should eat Lincoln's contract as well, but given the organization's track record for not pulling the plug soon enough (e.g. Taveras and Patterson most recently), I think he sticks around.

As for Janish's defense, he is assuredly among the best. He posted a UZR of 11.7 last season in 82 games (63 starts) at SS. Extrapolated out to 150 games, that's a nice 24.6. UZR isn't a perfect metric, to be sure, especially given Janish's lack of playing time, but he certainly passes the eye test as well. Coming up through the organization, scouts continually raved about his defensive abilities. Moreover, his range factor per nine innings (4.89) bested the qualified league leader of 4.59 by Cristian Guzman. From a more simplistic perspective, too, Janish only committed three errors in those 82 games at SS. Plus, who else are the Reds going to use as a pitcher when they're getting blown out?:

Again, though, I'm not really arguing for or against certain players to make the Opening Day roster. Simply based on the Reds' history and tendencies, I'm merely making my best educated guess. If it were up to me, though, I would much rather have Logan O. instead of Lincoln and Sutton instead of Miles.