APRIL
APRIL
Often the thud you hear as the Reds' record smacks into their pythag waits till late May. With the toughness of the competition Cards/Mets/Cards on the near horizon, the season may be more clearly over (record-wise) quite a bit earlier this season.
Speaking of Mets: over/under on # of dingers Gary Mathews, Jr. hits off Reds' pitching?
Last edited by Falls City Beer; 05-03-2010 at 10:47 AM.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
Assuming he plays. He's been riding the pine for most of the season as Pagan has taken over the everyday CF job.Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." - Sparky Anderson
Nothing--nothing--untracks a hitter like Reds' pitching. Pitching underhanded and tees are less effective.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
An interesting twist on the ol' Pythag.
To predict the winning percentage of a team, one new model simply uses a little addition, subtraction, and multiplication. It starts with the total runs scored by the team in all its games (Rs), and subtracts the runs it allows (Ra), and then multiplies it by a number called "beta" (B) which is chosen to produce the best results. For the 1969-2003 seasons, the optimal values of B range from 0.00053 to 0.00078, with an average of 0.00065.
Adding 0.5 to the result gives the predicted winning percentage of the team. The resulting formula looks like this:
The estimated winning percentage, P = 0.5 + B*(Rs-Ra)
The Pirates and the Cardinals think the same thing.:
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
I believe this bodes well for our Redlegs.
April
12-11 (.522) RS: 106 RA: 126 (-20)
May
9-5 (.643) RS: 71 RA: 52 (+19)
Great defense. Aggressive baserunning. Good pitching. Clutch hitting. I'm liking this brand of baseball.
May continues the upward trend.
18-9 RS: 158 RA: 103 (+55)
This team is simply clicking.
Best run differential for the month of May thus far.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/month/may
Pythag has us a 29-21 right now if I can do math right. Pretty much right in line with where we are.
FCB? . . . . FCB? . . . . are you in here?
I heard a loud thud just now, but I think it was your usually dower outlook hitting the floor, not anything having to do with the best record in the NL Reds.
Aas the Cards hitting goes south, the Reds run differential goes north, FCB seams to disappear from the board. As usual.FCB? . . . . FCB? . . . . are you in here?
I heard a loud thud just now, but I think it was your usually dower outlook hitting the floor, not anything having to do with the best record in the NL Reds.
It's gonna be time for a new graph!
Anyone know where the FCB Pytag quote is? Wasn't it something like "they'll be back to Earth by June?"
Um, quoted three posts above yours?
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