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Thread: Juan Francisco

  1. #1
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Juan Francisco

    How high is his upside? I was watching the game with my brother (a White Sox fan) yesterday and he brought up an interesting comparison for him, Pablo Sandoval.

    Sandoval's career minor league numbers:
    .303/.342/.445/.787

    Francisco's career minor league numbers:
    .281/.311/.482/.793

    Is there any chance that Francisco can either A. develop a little more patience at the plate or B. be able to hit over .300 in the majors so his lack of any sort of patience is as much of a factor?

    Everytime I watch him hit, I can't help but come away impressed, so I'm just trying to figure out if there's any chance he can become an everyday player.

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  3. #2
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    I think Francisco has the highest ceiling out of any hitter in the Reds organization sans Yorman Rodriguez. I doubt he reaches that ceiling because he has shown he swings at everything. If Francisco develops some plate discipline I think he could be an offensive monster.

  4. #3
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    He has a beautiful swing and great bat speed. Unfortunately, his plate discipline is subpar at this point. If he can ever improve his plate discipline he'll be an offensive monster, IMO.

  5. #4
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    His offensive approach somewhat reminds me of Vlad Guerrero.

    Of course, he can't hit bad balls like Guerrero.
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    With all his flaws, I would like to see Francisco stay with the Reds, platoon in left field with Gomes, maybe occasionally play third.

    Against righty pitching, Francisco would add a major dimension to the Reds' lineup.

    If his problems with plate discipline get the best of him, he could then be sent down for more seasoning.

    He potentially adds much more than Dickerson or Nix from the left side. I would try him.

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    How high is his upside? I was watching the game with my brother (a White Sox fan) yesterday and he brought up an interesting comparison for him, Pablo Sandoval.

    Sandoval's career minor league numbers:
    .303/.342/.445/.787

    Francisco's career minor league numbers:
    .281/.311/.482/.793

    Is there any chance that Francisco can either A. develop a little more patience at the plate or B. be able to hit over .300 in the majors so his lack of any sort of patience is as much of a factor?

    Everytime I watch him hit, I can't help but come away impressed, so I'm just trying to figure out if there's any chance he can become an everyday player.
    It is an interesting comparison. Here's some more data:
    Code:
    Age	Lg	PA	BB%	K%	HR%	BIP%	BABIP	ISO
    20	A	470	4.7%	15.7%	0.2%	79.4%	.313	.055
    21	A+	423	3.8%	12.3%	2.6%	81.3%	.305	.190
    22	A+	301	7.6%	13.0%	4.0%	75.4%	.384	.238
    22	AA	184	4.3%	10.9%	4.3%	80.4%	.345	.211
    Total		1378	5.0%	13.4%	2.3%	79.2%	.330	.157
    
    Age	Lg	PA	BB%	K%	HR%	BIP%	BABIP	ISO				
    19	R	36	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	77.8%	.429	.083
    19	R	190	3.2%	19.2%	1.6%	76.0%	.331	.126
    20	A	562	4.1%	30.1%	4.4%	61.4%	.337	.195
    21	A+	541	3.5%	23.8%	4.3%	68.4%	.321	.219
    22	AA	464	4.3%	20.8%	4.7%	70.2%	.309	.220
    22	AAA	99	4.0%	26.1%	5.1%	64.8%	.431	.239
    Total		1892	3.8%	24.6%	4.1%	67.5%	.332	.201
    A few things stand out to me:
    • Sandoval put the ball in play much more often. Given his averages and 600 PA, Sandoval's would see 157 non-HR hits per 600 . For Fransisco, that number is 134. That's about 40 points of batting average difference.
    • Sandoval walked a little bit more than Fransisco.
    • Fransisco hit for more power throughout his career, but for a similar amount over the last season. Doubles are power too.
    • Both guys were hit lucky from a BABIP, though .330ish could very well be standard for the minor leagues given the lower quality pitching and fielding.


    Lastly, looking at Sandoval's 2009 in the majors, we should recognize that he was very hit lucky, with a .350 BABIP despite just an 18.6 LD% in 2009. That is not sustainable and it's very unlikely he puts up the same batting average in 2010. His K rate went up slightly but his walk rate jumped BIG TIME, to 8.2% in 2009. If he sustains that level, it will allow him to continue to put up a decent OBP when his average falls back to the .290-.300 range.

    I agree that he's an interesting comp for Fransisco. However, we should continue to recognize that Fransisco is extremely unlikely to succeed in the majors without a big uptick in his walk rate. While he could sustain what seems to be a reasonable OPS, the composition of that OPS would be grossly SLG heavy, which makes it much less valuable in practice.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-06-2010 at 03:50 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #7
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Francisco swings like Sandoval does, but that is about where the comp ends. Sandoval makes a lot more contact, which means his average and OBP are going to start off a lot higher from the ground up. He also walks more than Francisco does.

  9. #8
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by WMR View Post
    His offensive approach somewhat reminds me of Vlad Guerrero.

    Of course, he can't hit bad balls like Guerrero.
    Can't walk like him either.

    Jeff Francoeur anyone?
    Go Gators!

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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Francisco is the 2nd coming of Wily Mo, Wily Mo, Wily Mo.

    If Francisco puts up numbers similar to The Panda for a whole season at the show, I'll jump in the East River.

  11. #10
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Francisco swings like Sandoval does, but that is about where the comp ends. Sandoval makes a lot more contact, which means his average and OBP are going to start off a lot higher from the ground up. He also walks more than Francisco does.
    I was surprised to see that in 2009, Sandoval was roughly league average in terms of contact rate. I assumed he'd be in the upper 20%. I think he's due for a fairly big batting average regression in 2010. His 20th percentile PECOTA seems likely to me: .298/.351/.473

    I don't think Fransisco has contact issues, just plate discipline issues. I'm beginning to think of him as Wily Mo Pena with more development time and better hand-eye coordination. If he can simply learn to lay off the breaking stuff out of the zone (easier said than done, I realize...), his BB% will go up, his K% will go down, and he'll be an absolute beast.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-06-2010 at 05:16 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I was surprised to see that in 2009, Sandoval was roughly league average in terms of contact rate. I assumed he'd be in the upper 20%. For me, it really reinforces the notion that if Fransisco can simply learn to lay off the breaking stuff out of the zone (easier said than done, I realize...) he could be an absolute beast. I'm beginning to think of him as Wily Mo Pena with more development time and better hand-eye coordination.
    And two other advantages -- he's left-handed, which puts him at a real advantage against the large majority of pitchers, and he simply has a better stroke. That's tougher to quantify, but I believe it to be true. And I actually thought Wily Mo had some moments when he looked like he might put it together.

  13. #12
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Francisco's a much better hitter than Wily Mo was.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Not only is Francisco a better hitter than Wily Mo ever dreamed of being, they are not remotely comparable at the plate. Francisco has a lot of quickness and a relatively short stroke; Wily Mo was all arms and way off balance most of the time. They don't even remotely resemble one another.

  15. #14
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Not only is Francisco a better hitter than Wily Mo ever dreamed of being, they are not remotely comparable at the plate. Francisco has a lot of quickness and a relatively short stroke; Wily Mo was all arms and way off balance most of the time. They don't even remotely resemble one another.
    Francisco does not have a short stroke at all.

  16. #15
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Not only is Francisco a better hitter than Wily Mo ever dreamed of being, they are not remotely comparable at the plate. Francisco has a lot of quickness and a relatively short stroke; Wily Mo was all arms and way off balance most of the time. They don't even remotely resemble one another.
    Their numbers may look the same, but their talent is not.

    Francisco has a naturally beautiful swing. Nearly perfectly balanced, loaded with power, and great eye-hand coordination.

    Pena had the swing of an offensive lineman who discovered a baseball bat in his hands one day.

    In other words, Francisco is a ball player, Pena is a great athlete who was trying to learn baseball.

    Doesn't mean that Francisco will be any better than Pena, but they really are not a good comp.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein


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