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Thread: OCab vs Janish

  1. #31
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Cabrera, IMO, showed a decent bat yesterday, just unlucky. He hit a couple on the screws, but right at someone. Defensively, he looked really, really slow.

    He has some value, in that he's a replacement level player at a position that's difficult to man. Janish can't hit, has never hit, and likely won't hit now, so depending on him strikes me as a ridiculous notion. Though his glove is supremely awesome, he'd an offensive black hole.
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  3. #32
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    If Janish posted a .340 OBP. is he still an offensive black hole? He was a 10 hits away from that. His OBP was 85 points higher than his batting average, and his BABIP was .247. Assuming he's not a great hitter, and his normal BABIP is .270, wouldn't that suggest he's a guy that can find 1st, and is a great defender?

    I'm certainly not suggesting he's Barry Larkin, but I think his defense is what this rotation needs.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #33
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    If Janish posted a .340 OBP. is he still an offensive black hole? He was a 10 hits away from that. His OBP was 85 points higher than his batting average, and his BABIP was .247. Assuming he's not a great hitter, and his normal BABIP is .270, wouldn't that suggest he's a guy that can find 1st, and is a great defender?

    I'm certainly not suggesting he's Barry Larkin, but I think his defense is what this rotation needs.
    A .340 OBP would be great. But his OBP for the last 2.5 years -- all of his nearly-1000 plate appearances in Louisville and Cincinnati -- is .288. He has patience, but the low BABIPs and batting averages aren't bad luck. He just can't hit.

    But even without betting on improvement at the plate, it's still an open question of whether his defense gives him as much or more overall value than Cabrera. Guess we'll see.
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  5. #34
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    A .340 OBP would be great. But his OBP for the last 2.5 years -- all of his nearly-1000 plate appearances in Louisville and Cincinnati -- is .288. He has patience, but the low BABIPs and batting averages aren't bad luck. He just can't hit.

    But even without betting on improvement at the plate, it's still an open question of whether his defense gives him as much or more overall value than Cabrera. Guess we'll see.
    Well...I'm guessing we won't see unless Cabrera gets injured.
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  6. #35
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Compared to Janish Pokey was a pretty nice hitter. Put it this way, Janish would love to have Pokey's career.

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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Two seasons ago in an offense-heavy park in Chicago, Cabrera OPSed .700. If Janish can't OPS .700, then of course, he has no business in the majors, but let's not pretend like Cabrera's some offensive titan. You'll not find many weaker sticks in the majors.

    It's still Jocketty's blind spot: going after a name when a comparable player exists on his 40 man.

  8. #37
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Agreed on Jocketty's main weakness, FCB. He continually depends on veteran players and can ignore unproven players that may provide the same amount of production at a fraction of the cost.

    I just don't think Janish is that player.
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  9. #38
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    I'm not a big fan of Cabrera but the Reds are horribly thin at SS and even if one thinks that Janish will hit well enough to carry his glove where would the Reds be if he got hurt?

    As Cabrera only got a 2 million dollar, one year contract, it's not that big a problem. If he tanks, he can be benched (although whether that would happen is certainly debatable.). I tend to think that Dusty is more likely to bench Cabrera if his defense becomes a liability before he would over his bat.
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  10. #39
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I'm not a big fan of Cabrera but the Reds are horribly thin at SS and even if one thinks that Janish will hit well enough to carry his glove where would the Reds be if he got hurt?

    As Cabrera only got a 2 million dollar, one year contract, it's not that big a problem. If he tanks, he can be benched (although whether that would happen is certainly debatable.). I tend to think that Dusty is more likely to bench Cabrera if his defense becomes a liability before he would over his bat.
    At the press conference introducing Cabrera, Jocketty said that he would be the Reds starting SS, but that Janish would be getting plenty of playing time and that they have not given up on Janish as a possible starting SS.

    So I think you are correct, the Reds are starting Cabrera for now, but will move to Janish if they feel Cabrera is not doing the job.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Two seasons ago in an offense-heavy park in Chicago, Cabrera OPSed .700. If Janish can't OPS .700, then of course, he has no business in the majors, but let's not pretend like Cabrera's some offensive titan. You'll not find many weaker sticks in the majors.

    It's still Jocketty's blind spot: going after a name when a comparable player exists on his 40 man.
    The comparable player on the 40-man roster of the Cincinnati Reds doesn't exist. Janish is horrible as a hitter and O-Cab is just that much better even though he does have a relatively weak bat. The solution is to get through the season with Cabrera and hope Cozart develops; otherwise, the Reds better start looking outside the organization because they can't win with Janish playing on a daily basis.

    Bum

  12. #41
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    The comparable player on the 40-man roster of the Cincinnati Reds doesn't exist. Janish is horrible as a hitter and O-Cab is just that much better even though he does have a relatively weak bat. The solution is to get through the season with Cabrera and hope Cozart develops; otherwise, the Reds better start looking outside the organization because they can't win with Janish playing on a daily basis.

    Bum
    I'd rank Cabrera's bat among the bottom 3-5% of all major league hitters. I'll be stunned if he OPS over .725 this season. That's the very picture of fungible. The guy's actually a pretty big step down from Gonzalez, which is saying something.

  13. #42
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Are they successful because a cadre of Cabreras bat second or are the successful because of something else?

    I'm not really seeing a "success" correlation here. Besides, if all managers do it, wouldn't putting a "good hitter" in the 2 spot cancel out the opposition's "SS bats second" gambit?



    No, that's the opposite extreme. This particular tactic is one steeped in tradition.
    I meant successful in that batting a guy with a good eye and good bat control is about as productive as batting a guy without that, who has a higher OBP.

    But then again, I really don't think it matters much where guys bat in the lineup, which is mostly why I believe the above.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  14. #43
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'd rank Cabrera's bat among the bottom 3-5% of all major league hitters. I'll be stunned if he OPS over .725 this season. That's the very picture of fungible. The guy's actually a pretty big step down from Gonzalez, which is saying something.
    I don't disagree that Cabrera will probably OPS between 700 and 725, but the step down to Janish is huge...I don't know, I read this board and it seems the only way to make some of the ORG crew happy is to have this lineup out there and lose 120 games:

    C: Hanigan
    1B: Votto
    2B: Phillips
    3B: Rolen
    SS: Janish
    LF: Dorn
    CF: Heisey
    RF: Gomes?

    I mean...the over-reactions to bad players/prospects is pretty high volume. The Reds are getting better but they can't get to the top all at once; it's going to take some time.

    Bum

  15. #44
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    I don't disagree that Cabrera will probably OPS between 700 and 725, but the step down to Janish is huge...I don't know, I read this board and it seems the only way to make some of the ORG crew happy is to have this lineup out there and lose 120 games:

    C: Hanigan
    1B: Votto
    2B: Phillips
    3B: Rolen
    SS: Janish
    LF: Dorn
    CF: Heisey
    RF: Gomes?

    I mean...the over-reactions to bad players/prospects is pretty high volume. The Reds are getting better but they can't get to the top all at once; it's going to take some time.

    Bum
    Actually, I'm not at all a bedwetter when it comes to this offense. I like its present, and I really like its future. I don't think--I know--Janish is the better defender; and with this pitching staff (low K's, extremely hittable), they need every last ounce of help they can get in the field.

  16. #45
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    OCab's bat will be helped somewhat by GABP, but only his power. His speed isn't what it was so don't expect to see his stretching any singles into doubles.

    And if his defense is as bas as reported, ugh.

    I did want Janish to be the starter at SS for his defense alone. his bat last year was truly odd. A disproportionate amount of doubles. Almost half his hits were doubles. The problem was, he needed about 20 more hits. but he's managed 20+ doubles in '06, '07, '08 and '09. So there is some ability there. He seems like a 50+ BB guy over a full season of AB's.

    But the Reds were/are very thin at the position. Maybe Cozart will be ready mid season. Then again, maybe Janish can add 20 hits. Its not impossible. His skillset can still improve while physically Cabrera is on the wrong side of 35.
    Suck it up cupcake.


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