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Thread: OCab vs Janish

  1. #46
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    I don't disagree that Cabrera will probably OPS between 700 and 725, but the step down to Janish is huge...I don't know, I read this board and it seems the only way to make some of the ORG crew happy is to have this lineup out there and lose 120 games:

    C: Hanigan
    1B: Votto
    2B: Phillips
    3B: Rolen
    SS: Janish
    LF: Dorn
    CF: Heisey
    RF: Gomes?

    I mean...the over-reactions to bad players/prospects is pretty high volume. The Reds are getting better but they can't get to the top all at once; it's going to take some time.

    Bum
    Please. Name one poster that wants that. Has anyone ever suggested Bruce sit? Yeah, I'd take Heisey over Stubbs. He's got a much better bat.

    But your supposed RZ lineup is, well, fictitious. at best.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  3. #47
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    At this point I would peg Janish as one of the 5 worst offensive SS. I don't know where replacement level draws the line but I don't think I would rank Janish offensive game as replacement level.

    I would be perfectly fine with Janish playing SS if I had a great offensive team. If this were an offensive juggernaut then playing Janish at SS and hitting him 8th (or 9th in the AL) would make sense. But on a team that is offensively challenged Cabrera's offensive upgrade is important.
    I agree with this, but I'd look to alter it in a different way. If the team is offensively challenged as you say (which I don't agree with) then instead of pulling Janish out...you work on improving one of the other slots. Improve our LF'er. Improve our C. Improve our 3b. Yes, yes...I know. Rolen is a gold glover and a borderline HoF'er. But his skills are diminishing too, just like Cabrera.

    It's a balancing act. You bring in a more offensive minded SS but lose defense and hence hurt the young pitching. The problem here is this...there are very few shortstops out there available. And even fewer that fit our needs. So I'd say we stick with the well above average defense there and work to improve our offensive output in other areas. Batting Janish near the bottom of the order would be a start. :O)
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  4. #48
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I meant successful in that batting a guy with a good eye and good bat control is about as productive as batting a guy without that, who has a higher OBP.
    I don't think the "without" player exists. So in that case, yes.

    But then again, I really don't think it matters much where guys bat in the lineup, which is mostly why I believe the above.
    I don't think it matters when all the players in your lineup have similar production.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  5. #49
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Please. Name one poster that wants that. Has anyone ever suggested Bruce sit? Yeah, I'd take Heisey over Stubbs. He's got a much better bat.

    But your supposed RZ lineup is, well, fictitious. at best.
    Word.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  6. #50
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    OCab's bat will be helped somewhat by GABP, but only his power. His speed isn't what it was so don't expect to see his stretching any singles into doubles.

    And if his defense is as bas as reported, ugh.

    I did want Janish to be the starter at SS for his defense alone. his bat last year was truly odd. A disproportionate amount of doubles. Almost half his hits were doubles. The problem was, he needed about 20 more hits. but he's managed 20+ doubles in '06, '07, '08 and '09. So there is some ability there. He seems like a 50+ BB guy over a full season of AB's.

    But the Reds were/are very thin at the position. Maybe Cozart will be ready mid season. Then again, maybe Janish can add 20 hits. Its not impossible. His skillset can still improve while physically Cabrera is on the wrong side of 35.
    I agree with this 100%. People are so entrenched in the fact that Janish can't improve I just don't get it. Everyone always says that when a player moves up from AA to AAA there's an adjustment period. You'll struggle for a while and then gradually improve as you get more comfortable. Regular AB's will do that. I think the same holds true for Paul. I'm not suggesting he'll become a great hitter...or even an above average hitter. But with his patience...I can see him getting to average.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  7. #51
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I don't think it matters when all the players in your lineup have similar production.
    very witty, as usual.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Please. Name one poster that wants that. Has anyone ever suggested Bruce sit? Yeah, I'd take Heisey over Stubbs. He's got a much better bat.

    But your supposed RZ lineup is, well, fictitious. at best.
    I'm not over-reacting to reading these over-reactive posts anymore than any of y'all are over-reacting to 1 game...It's just too bad the Reds had a day off!

    Heisey does not have a better bat than Stubbs. Stubbs has proven to this point to have a very good bat in CF at the MLB level. Heisey has proven to be a good minor league baseball player; until he proves it at the MLB level and outdoes Stubbs at the MLB level your statement is, well, fictitious and based on pure bias at best.

    There is no basis or anything to rely upon to suggest that Janish will ever get better as a hitter, so to suggest that he can add 20 hits in 240-ish AB's (his approximate AB's from last season) just doesn't wash. Janish's BABIP was not abnormal for him; he's just that bad. Cabrera is a reasonable stop-gap while Cozart develops or the Reds trade for someone else. Janish is a reasonable utility IF for now. Omar Vizquel in his late 30's makes Janish look silly offensively...

    Bum

  9. #53
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I don't think the "without" player exists. So in that case, yes.
    Surely there are guys with high OBP who don't have good bat control. Most of them are middle of the lineup guys, but they definitely exist.

    I just think that the overall philosophy of having a speedy high OBP guy leadoff, a guy who is good at getting the leadoff hitter into scoring position second, your best overall hitter third, and power guys after that is just as productive a philosophy as putting your putting your best OBP guys at the top of the lineup.

    Theoretically, the latter should net a team a handful more runs over a season, but there are way too many variables that can't be controlled that really make it a toss up over any given season.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  10. #54
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I agree with this, but I'd look to alter it in a different way. If the team is offensively challenged as you say (which I don't agree with) then instead of pulling Janish out...you work on improving one of the other slots. Improve our LF'er. Improve our C. Improve our 3b. Yes, yes...I know. Rolen is a gold glover and a borderline HoF'er. But his skills are diminishing too, just like Cabrera.
    Don't get me wrong this looks good on paper. Improve C, LF, SS and even 3B make sense because they were weaknesses of the Reds. But the reality is its much more difficult. Who are they going to get to improve C and LF when you take finances into consideration? $7M for Damon? $10M for Beltre? $15.5/2 years for Cameron?

    I think the Cabrera was the most financially prudent as well as solid baseball move the Reds could have made over the off season. They needed depth at SS and Cabrera at worst adds that. If his defense continues to suffer I don't think the Reds will hesitate to give Janish more PT. I didn't think I would even say this but I think Janish's offensive prowess is beginning to get a little out of control here on RZ.

  11. #55
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    very witty, as usual.
    But that was actually serious. When you have great, average or bad players up and down your lineup, it doesn't matter. However, when you have maybe one great player, a couple good players, some unknowns and unsavory knowns, there are a number of configurations that would improve the bottom line.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  12. #56
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I didn't think I would even say this but I think Janish's offensive prowess is beginning to get a little out of control here on RZ.

    Almost getting to be Coombsish in comparison.
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  13. #57
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Surely there are guys with high OBP who don't have good bat control. Most of them are middle of the lineup guys, but they definitely exist.
    I was saying there isn't a hitter with a high OBP that doesn't have a good eye and good bat control. Adam Dunn certainly has a good eye but isn't a contact dude. I can't think of any guy who has a poor eye, poor bat control and a high OBP.

    I just think that the overall philosophy of having a speedy high OBP guy leadoff, a guy who is good at getting the leadoff hitter into scoring position second, your best overall hitter third, and power guys after that is just as productive a philosophy as putting your putting your best OBP guys at the top of the lineup.
    And that would be great if the Reds would put a "speedy high OBP guy" (Chris Dickerson) in the leadoff spot. The "guy who is good at getting the leadoff hitter into scoring position second" is Scott Rolen, not OCab.

    At least Dusty gets the three guy right!

    Theoretically, the latter should net a team a handful more runs over a season, but there are way too many variables that can't be controlled that really make it a toss up over any given season.
    It's not like the variables lessen with the former.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  14. #58
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Trying to improve hitting through the catcher is as hard as improving hitting at SS, and likely a greater impact on a young staff.

    Put it this way, with the young latin starters this team has is there really all that wonder about the latin guys in the key defensive positions during their development? I mean who is a more likely mentor to them Janish or OC, Hernandez or Hanigan or mystery slamming catcher?

    My take is the Reds don't see Janish as the answer at this point and they looked to fill his shoes with a guy that might end up helping them more in the coming years than this year. The same can be said for Hernadez and Hanigan.

    Both positions are traditionally defensive position manned more often than not by older guys when a team can't fill them adequetly in-house... which IMO is what we're seeing right now with the Reds

  15. #59
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    I'm not over-reacting to reading these over-reactive posts anymore than any of y'all are over-reacting to 1 game...It's just too bad the Reds had a day off!

    Heisey does not have a better bat than Stubbs. Stubbs has proven to this point to have a very good bat in CF at the MLB level. Heisey has proven to be a good minor league baseball player; until he proves it at the MLB level and outdoes Stubbs at the MLB level your statement is, well, fictitious and based on pure bias at best.

    There is no basis or anything to rely upon to suggest that Janish will ever get better as a hitter, so to suggest that he can add 20 hits in 240-ish AB's (his approximate AB's from last season) just doesn't wash. Janish's BABIP was not abnormal for him; he's just that bad. Cabrera is a reasonable stop-gap while Cozart develops or the Reds trade for someone else. Janish is a reasonable utility IF for now. Omar Vizquel in his late 30's makes Janish look silly offensively...

    Bum
    I'd like to keep this about OCab and Janish.. but just to refute a little of your argument...

    Drew Stubbs career Minor League OPS .765 and trended down as he moved up
    Chris Heisey career Minor League OPS .830 and trended up until AAA where he posted a .789 OPS

    You are basing this on 180 MLB AB's. So I'd guess Stubbs is a better bat than Heywood too. After all He has only one MLB HR.

    Back on topic. Developing later in a career is very fashionable now. I call it the Ryan Ludwick Syndrome. Players seem to be coming into their own at a later age. Garret Jone in PIT, Nelson Cruz etc. It's all the rage. You could really call it the Ryan Freel Effect (which now that i think of it is a nice name for a band). Sometime you have to value what a player does without ripping him for what he doesn't. Yeah I should take my own advice.
    Last edited by TRF; 04-07-2010 at 02:16 PM.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: OCab vs Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I'd like to keep this about OCab and Janish.. but just to refute a little of your argument...

    Drew Stubbs career Minor League OPS .765 and trended down as he moved up
    Chris Heisey career Minor League OPS .830 and trended up until AAA where he posted a .789 OPS

    You are basing this on 180 MLB AB's. So I'd guess Stubbs is a better bat than Heywood too. After all He has only one MLB HR.

    Back on topic. Improvement later in a career is very fashionable now. I call it the Ryan Ludwick Syndrome. Players seem to be coming into their own at a later age. Garret Jone in PIT, Nelson Cruz etc. It's all the rage. You could really call it the Ryan Freel Effect (which now that i think of it is a nice name for a band). Sometime you have to value what a player does without ripping him for what he doesn't. Yeah I should take my own advice.
    Heywood? Unfamiliar...last note on the OF's: sometimes one has to realize that minor league statistics don't necessarily translate one way or the other to MLB. Otherwise Dorn may be on his way to the HOF (along with guys like Roberto Petagine, Dallas McPherson, Calvin Pickering....and so on)...:

    Janish...positive...he's an OK utility IF and as long as he doesn't get 200 AB's, I don't care. Otherwise, he's a drag on the team. Those guys you mention above all had one tool that Janish does not have (not Freel) and that is POP (Freel had more than Janish...whatever that is good for...). Janish is Pop-less...I just don't see the correlation between Ryan Ludwick, Nelson Cruz, Garrett Jones and Paul Janish...it's like the sesame street song: One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong...can you guess which one is not like the others by the time I finish this post?


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