did Walt screw up?

[RedsManRick]

I guess I don't know enough about their processes to know. There must be some number OPS for Janish at which he's a better fit all around than Cabrera but apparently they either A. Don't think Janish can hit that number or B. Their decision making process isn't that "advanced." I've just been a bit puzzled about it and particularly about what to infer from it about the team's assumptions about Janish.

Based on Dusty's refusal to use Janish as a defensive replacement, I'm guessing the Reds have a higher opinion of Cabrera's defensive capabilities than do most people on RZ.

[bucksfan2]

Valuing something and being able to assess it well are very different things. I don't know much about how the Reds do their evaluations, but I know it doesn't include advanced metrics to any significant degree. As for the quality of their major league scouts, I've got absolutely no info other than the decisions they've made, which doesn't leave me terribly inspired.

I think your wrong here. Its a stigma that Walt has had in the saber community during his tenure as a GM. Its also the same type of stigma that Dusty has in favoring veteran players. To speculate that a FO doesn't do its homework, especially a FO who has done a pretty good job of building a competitive team over the past 2-3 years, is just wrong.

[Chip R]

Based on Dusty's refusal to use Janish as a defensive replacement, I'm guessing the Reds have a higher opinion of Cabrera's defensive capabilities than do most people on RZ.

It may not necessarily be that Dusty thinks Cabrera's such an outstanding defender or Janish stinks. We all know Dusty is the quintessential players' manager. Dusty would rather die a thousand deaths before he made one of his players uncomfortable. If he replaced Cabrera with Janish defensively, that would be doing just that. Cabrera's a former GG SS and while he may not be Ozzie Smith out there, he's no butcher. Using Janish as a defensive replacement for Cabrera would be telling Cabrera that he's not good enough to use in the late innings when the Reds have a lead. Replacing Gomes is another thing since Gomes' forte has never been defense.

[westofyou]

It may not necessarily be that Dusty thinks Cabrera's such an outstanding defender or Janish stinks. We all know Dusty is the quintessential players' manager. Dusty would rather die a thousand deaths before he made one of his players uncomfortable. If he replaced Cabrera with Janish defensively, that would be doing just that. Cabrera's a former GG SS and while he may not be Ozzie Smith out there, he's no butcher. Using Janish as a defensive replacement for Cabrera would be telling Cabrera that he's not good enough to use in the late innings when the Reds have a lead. Replacing Gomes is another thing since Gomes' forte has never been defense.

Exactly, you don't see many defensive replacements at defensive positions, mainly because those players are wrapped around that position mentally more than the Gomes and Dunns.

It is a game played by humans and a human approach to it shouldn't surprise anyone, and if you have ever read any player book (Balls, Ball Four, Bronx Zoo) then you'll see all sorts of passages that elude to the human element of the game and the mental aspect certain types of players.

[edabbs44]

Based on Dusty's refusal to use Janish as a defensive replacement, I'm guessing the Reds have a higher opinion of Cabrera's defensive capabilities than do most people on RZ.

The Reds have a first place team. Redszone is a bulletin board where anyone with a pulse can join.

I'm gonna side with Walt, Dusty and the crew until further notice.

[jojo]

Replacing Cabrera for defensive reasons would be a huge statement about his ability to be a shortstop. I just don't think its something Dusty would do.

[TRF]

Yeah, Chip pretty much nailed this one.

Now i await the apocalypse.

[edabbs44]

FYI...I'm glad Ramon is on this team.

[WVRedsFan]

FYI...I'm glad Ramon is on this team.

Absolutely. Ramon gives us pop from the bottom of the lineup. The straw man that Hanigan is--and I mean that sincerely-tends to make people believe that he is super human, which he is not. One of the best moves that Walt has made was trading the very popular and yet fallable Freel for Ramon Hernandez. We miss him when he's gone.

[GAC]

It may not necessarily be that Dusty thinks Cabrera's such an outstanding defender or Janish stinks. We all know Dusty is the quintessential players' manager. Dusty would rather die a thousand deaths before he made one of his players uncomfortable. If he replaced Cabrera with Janish defensively, that would be doing just that. Cabrera's a former GG SS and while he may not be Ozzie Smith out there, he's no butcher. Using Janish as a defensive replacement for Cabrera would be telling Cabrera that he's not good enough to use in the late innings when the Reds have a lead. Replacing Gomes is another thing since Gomes' forte has never been defense.

Sometimes you actually do make sense. Good post.

Dusty's a player's manager for sure. The people of RZ are not. Now the question is....

whose wrong? :

[edabbs44]

I'm gonna say the answer is no.

[redsmetz]

Ramon 'singles hitter' Hernandez: $2M
Orlando 'no range' Cabrera: $3M

There were certainly not a lot of prime catchers or shortstops available last winter in the free agent market. Walt chose to patch these positions with Hernandez & Cabrera. The money to do so came from selling Mr Enthusiasm to the As for $1.3M and also from restructuring/extending Rolen's deal.

I have a really bad feeling that the Reds flushed $5M down the toilet. There is already a five page (!) post regarding Cabrera's lack of range. Hernandez had a weak year in 2009 & isn't getting any younger.

So you ask: well if the free agent market was weak what should Walt have done? Easy answer. where's Maloney? stuck in AAA. where's Heisey? in AAA and sitting behind Stubbs on the depth chart. Alonso? AA and trying to learn a new position. Francisco? well he is here for now but most expect him to be headed for AAA on Sunday. My point: should Walt have decided last winter who to keep & who to trade from the prospects bunching up in AA/AAA & used a few of these prospects to swing a deal for a shortsop and/or catcher instead of getting Hernanndez & Cabrera. I say he messed up. what say you?

I thought I'd pull forward the original post. Weren't perfect moves, but seemed to have helped a lot this season. Of course, as they said, hindsight is 20/20.