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Thread: did Walt screw up?

  1. #61
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Shouldn't be another five year plan. Arroyo and Harang contracts are ending, which should provide payflex to go into the free agent market next year. If Reds are going to spend for good veterans, next off-season should be the time.
    In addition, hopefully some of the prospects will have trade value, which can yield still more good players.

    In other words, Reds should have the currency to acquire some good veteran players next winter. Doesn't mean they will, but they could.
    Still a lot of potential barriers there too. If Harang and Arroyo are gone and that frees up that money, the Reds will want to replace them with major league experienced pitchers. Cost, availability, quality, and if a quality pitcher is interested in signing with the Reds vs NY, Boston or the other coast. The young pitching that the Reds have has to become better and more consistent than they are. You have already spoken to the bullpen. We each are a bit frustrated with the entire outfield. Bats and gloves cost money, if they are available and would sign with the Reds. Still no bench to speak of. Most will want that magical shortstop, that is probably not out there, and will cost. We already know of the right handed splits for hitters. Someone said catcher, and Rolen and his back. Oh yeah, and that small market barrier.

    Anyway on and on. Sigh

    The Reds and we fans probably better hope that the younger players show up this year, and next. Along with a staff that believes and shows confidence in them, while being able to get them to perform like they belong here.


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  3. #62
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I think we fans invent continuity and rationale where they don't exist, mostly in an attempt to keep ourselves sane. Jocketty was brought in to be the GM of the club. Pretty much every GM who doesn't come in preaching a five-year plan thinks he can make it work in the near term.

    As we all know, the Reds go into every season with the conviction that this is going to be the season the franchise turns it around. There's usually plenty of aiders and abettors in the media picking the Reds as a sleeper team too. Mind you, the last time anyone was right about that the Reds had just acquired one of the top LHPs in baseball, a guy coming off a 50-HR season and a super-athletic young CF to hit at the top of the lineup.

    Anyway, this season strikes me as being Walt's best faith attempt to cobble something around a returning club that has key players improving in lockstep. He knows the franchise is going part with a number of veteran players if it doesn't pan out. Did he screw up? Too early to say, but I'd say what he did most was hope. He hoped the club would spontaneously erupt into contendership and he hoped guys like Cabrera and Hernandez could be working parts on a strong team. FWIW, maybe they can be, but the Reds so far don't look like that team. Cabrera looked plenty lost in Oakland last season too and then he became a key contributor to the Twins' playoff run.

    So if it comes time to dismantle his best faith effort, I'm thinking Walt informs Castellini that this means a five-year plan and that Cast needs to find a new GM to sell that to the fans. Walt may serve out the season, selling off guys like Harang and Arroyo as best he can, but after that I'd expect him to gracefully step aside. I don't think he needs this type of aggravation.
    But the thing is, this time it IS different.

    The Reds have never had so much young pitching talent. And while I'd caution that talent and potential clearly don't equate to on-field performance (the Reds are the best example of that), there are a lot more valuable chips in this organization than there have been in the past.

    If what the Reds really need is one bona fide SP, one bona fide OF, and perhaps a solution to either the SS or C problem, I believe they have enough right now to go out and get it. It would take a lot of cajones, but if Walt is as good as he supposedly is, he can figure out who the Blake Stein is he needs to trade to go get McGwire.

    The fact of the matter is, the Reds need a legitimate LF, and then they can platoon Jonny Gomes with Bruce if Bruce doesn't come around. Votto, Phillips, Cabrera and Rolen are as good of an infield as you'll find anywhere in the National League outside of Philly. Dickerson is proving that he can be the legitimate, super-athletic leadoff guy in CF as long as he can stay healthy.

    CF Dickerson
    1B Votto
    3B Rolen
    LF This is where Walt comes in
    2B Phillips
    RF Bruce/Gomes
    SS Cabrera
    C Hernandez

    Take Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Drew Stubbs, Juan Francisco, and your pick from Cueto/Bailey/Volquez/Wood, and figure out who to trade for a moster LF and a bona fide SP (probably going to be two separate trades) and voila, you have your instant contender.

    The key is figuring out which prospects to trade, and having the actual cojones to do it. I can't think of someone with a better track record of doing that than Walt Jocketty. So let's see if he can't make it happen.
    Last edited by Benihana; 04-17-2010 at 04:56 PM.
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  4. #63
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Don't the Reds owe Harang and Arroyo a ton of cash to go away? I can't imagine that whatever is saved will be put towards a TOR arm.
    “And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith

  5. #64
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Don't the Reds owe Harang and Arroyo a ton of cash to go away? I can't imagine that whatever is saved will be put towards a TOR arm.
    I thought that they each have $2MM buyouts? Arroyo is very tradeable right now if they wanted to, so that would leave a total of $2MM owed to Harang. That would leave roughly $20MM to spend on a TOR if they were so inclined.

    My guess is that it would have to be a trade, seeing as how the Reds' competitive advantage for acquiring such a player would be talent, not money. Who will be this year's Cliff Lee?
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  6. #65
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Given my post above, I was thinking of potential matchups. Houston is an obvious fit if they continue to flounder, but it does present high risk trading within the division.

    Here's an interesting question. Would you trade Alonso, Stubbs and Bailey for Oswalt and Berkman? Oswalt and Lee?

    Houston would be giving up two of their franchise icons, but they are aging and Houston needs to rebuild. They would be getting two Texas kids and a 1B to continue in the Davis-Bagwell-Berkman legacy.

    While I am not sure if I would pull the trigger (there would surely be cost concerns, and the Reds would have to find a taker for Harang before they could consider such a deal), it would be this type of outside-the-box, high risk move that would propel the Reds out of their perpetual prospect funk. If you thought the Stewart-Rolen deal caused controversy, look out!
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  7. #66
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Shouldn't be another five year plan.
    Another one? The team never had a first five-year plan. The Reds have been conspicuous in staying away from a structured, long-term rebuild.

    My guess is if this edition fails the Reds won't be spending on any meaningful free agents. First, the team will be looking to collect younger bodies. Second, coveted vets won't be too keen to take the Reds' money when established contenders with established players are also bidding for their services.

    I actually think 10 years in wilderness and the crumbling of the latest longshot plan to conquer the world will beget something new with the Reds - a square one mentality.

    And I suspect Jocketty will decide he's too old to go back to square one.
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  8. #67
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    So, what exactly would you have liked Janish to do there? Both those pitches were strikes. Clearly strikes. He could've shown patience and could've been down 0-2...pretty much at the pitchers mercy at that point. If the pitches were borderline...I could expect people here to say he should force the pitcher to throw strikes. But he WAS throwing strikes...at least to Paul. The ball he popped out on was a meatball right down the heart of the dish.

    I'm curious as to which result would've been viewed more critically. Strike out looking...or popping out? If you see a pitch you can drive and one that's in the zone, letting it sail past serves no purpose, does it?
    My issue with Janish is that he has no power to speak of. Last night was a microcosm of Janish's inabilities at the plate. If your going to swing at the first pitch in an at bat you need to find a pitch to drive. In the at bat with the bases loaded he was over powered by the pitcher. Maybe the ball was a meatball but he put a weak swing on it and poped out in foul ground the the 3b. He just doesn't have the offensive game to warrant playing every day, hence the reason Cabrera was brought in.

    I agree that its tough to make judgements based upon one game or even a couple of games. But what is troubling about Janish is that when a pitcher is making pitches Janish is going to be completely overmatched. I really dont' want to hear about good spring training stats because those are mostly useless. I would like Janish to be successful at the plate because that would help the team out but I just don't see it.

  9. #68
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Another one? The team never had a first five-year plan.
    Sure they did. Wait til 2003, remember?

    The Reds have been conspicuous in staying away from a structured, long-term rebuild.
    Can't argue with that.

    My guess is if this edition fails the Reds won't be spending on any meaningful free agents. First, the team will be looking to collect younger bodies. Second, coveted vets won't be too keen to take the Reds' money when established contenders with established players are also bidding for their services.

    I actually think 10 years in wilderness and the crumbling of the latest longshot plan to conquer the world will beget something new with the Reds - a square one mentality.

    And I suspect Jocketty will decide he's too old to go back to square one.
    Here is where I disagree. I can't see this team going back to a square one situation for a different reason than what has plagued them in the past.

    Unlike the dozens of times when we cried for a total tear down and rebuild, this time I don't think they need it.

    They do need to plug some serious holes, and figure out which, if any, of the current pitchers are going to be true long term fixtures in the rotation (Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, Wood, Maloney, etc.) They also need to gauge whether Bruce and Stubbs will ever be for real or whether they were mere flashes in the pan. The entire Reds scouting and development department from the last 5 years' future hinges on those questions.

    However, like I said above, Votto, Phillips, Rolen, and hopefully Dickerson are all here to stay. Ditto for Leake, Chapman, and several of the bullpen arms. While almost everybody else is a question mark, that is a lot fewer question marks than they've had in the past.
    Last edited by Benihana; 04-17-2010 at 06:24 PM.
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  10. #69
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    But the thing is, this time it IS different.
    I see what you're driving at, but I'm not as bully on this collection of players.

    For instance, I don't think the team can survive Jay Bruce not being a damn good player this season. If he's less than that I don't think the Reds have a workable lineup.

    I also think that LF needed to be acquired before the season. By the time other teams start shopping talent, it might be a moot point for the Reds (who are just as likely to be in sell mode themselves).

    I also think the young pitching isn't ready for primetime. Leake was a stellar draft pick, but he's going to take a little time to adjust. Chapman's got the velo, but he's going to need to refine his pitching a bit in order to be a major league starter (reliever is a different proposition). Volquez is still working his way back from injury. Bailey is Bailey - always falling apart just when you think you can count on him and then resurrecting himself just when you think he's hopeless. Cueto needs to make the theory that he's going to progress more than a fond notion (he's at a bit of a crossroads this season).

    It might be 2012 before that group truly comes together and there might be a casualty or two along the way.

    What might be different this time around is the young pitching could cause the Reds to exercise some patience. If they've got two years before the window opens and then they expect it to stay open for a few years, then they might look to add younger, foundational pieces as opportunities present themselves - e.g. a SS here and a C there.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  11. #70
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Another one? The team never had a first five-year plan. The Reds have been conspicuous in staying away from a structured, long-term rebuild.
    Until Jocketty took over and started the first one for the Reds since the 80's.

    Right now the team is in the middle of year three, and looks to be a bit ahead of the pace. Just a bit.

    This current 25 man team is not going to seriously contend, but the organization for the first time since the late 80's has depth at nearly every position throughout the organization.

    They are definitely missing offensive stars, but are poised to pick one up next off-season. Jocketty has executed his plan to near perfection so far, his only hiccups being signing some bad players to small short term contracts, but none of them have affected the overall plan.

    There is no reason to think that Jocketty will not follow through on this plan, or stay with it. And more importantly, the pieces are all in place for him to do it. The Reds have a surplus of young talent that he can parlay into a the big star(s) that this team is missing. He did this many times in St. Louis, and I fully expect him to do it again here in Cincinnati.
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  12. #71
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Until Jocketty took over and started the first one for the Reds since the 80's.

    Right now the team is in the middle of year three, and looks to be a bit ahead of the pace. Just a bit.

    This current 25 man team is not going to seriously contend, but the organization for the first time since the late 80's has depth at nearly every position throughout the organization.

    They are definitely missing offensive stars, but are poised to pick one up next off-season. Jocketty has executed his plan to near perfection so far, his only hiccups being signing some bad players to small short term contracts, but none of them have affected the overall plan.

    There is no reason to think that Jocketty will not follow through on this plan, or stay with it. And more importantly, the pieces are all in place for him to do it. The Reds have a surplus of young talent that he can parlay into a the big star(s) that this team is missing. He did this many times in St. Louis, and I fully expect him to do it again here in Cincinnati.
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  13. #72
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Walt Jocketty has had nearly as much time as Wayne Krivsky and I've yet to see any improvements. Unless the Reds make some improvements this season, I'd like to see Jocketty let go at the end of the season and replaced with a young up and coming GM, someone like a David Forst from Oakland.

  14. #73
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Walt Jocketty has had nearly as much time as Wayne Krivsky and I've yet to see any improvements. Unless the Reds make some improvements this season, I'd like to see Jocketty let go at the end of the season and replaced with a young up and coming GM, someone like a David Forst from Oakland.
    Let's be fair, Walt Jocketty should get to fire the manager first and bring in his own man. Someone that the runs scored don't regress each year that he manages the Reds.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 04-17-2010 at 11:16 PM.

  15. #74
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    Let's be fair, Walt Jocketty should get to fire the manager first and bring in his own man. Someone that the runs scored don't regress each year that he manages the Reds.
    +1 in agreeance.

    I like Dusty as a man. I think he has a passion for his players. But if we continue to under-perform under him, he should be gone at years end. He's had his chances.
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  16. #75
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    Re: did Walt screw up?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Walt Jocketty has had nearly as much time as Wayne Krivsky and I've yet to see any improvements. Unless the Reds make some improvements this season, I'd like to see Jocketty let go at the end of the season and replaced with a young up and coming GM, someone like a David Forst from Oakland.
    Jocketty also hasn't had the benefit of a (basically) open checkbook. He hasn't nearly dedicated the amt of money to the now, where Wayne did. As long as Walt's plan looks like it is working, then he should remain here.


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