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Thread: From BP: How valid is that data?

  1. #16
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: From BP: How valid is that data?

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    Just correlate the categorization of balls in play made by the various sources. Is the correlation high? If so, no problem.
    The correlation moderately high, as you would expect. But the are some systematic biases, particularly regarding the classification of line drives and we have no way to determine which is more correct.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #17
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: From BP: How valid is that data?

    This is an interesting response to the Wyers article. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...tted-ball-data
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  4. #18
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: From BP: How valid is that data?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The correlation moderately high, as you would expect. But the are some systematic biases, particularly regarding the classification of line drives and we have no way to determine which is more correct.
    Neither is more correct unless we know what the difference between a fly ball and liner are. We don't know this because there's not really a true cutpoint between the two. That's why access to data on the trajectory and speed of batted balls is such a leap forward for analysts.

  5. #19
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: From BP: How valid is that data?

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    Neither is more correct unless we know what the difference between a fly ball and liner are. We don't know this because there's not really a true cutpoint between the two. That's why access to data on the trajectory and speed of batted balls is such a leap forward for analysts.
    Fair point; correct was not the right word to use. They are just different. The definitions as this point are subjective and should be treated as such; in particular, we should no co-mingle the data.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #20
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: From BP: How valid is that data?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    The point is, while some people may reasonably disagree, it doesn't mean the data is terribly skewed or that we can't get some reasonable conclusions about players because of it.
    Reasonably broad, you mean? Yes. Except that we like to be more specific about that when we argue about ballplayers, and in a sport where the proverbial one hit a week makes a huge difference in how we look at a hitter's total value, vagueness in the underlying data can be a problem. I was struck by the article's example of Wandy Rodriguez, and how the two sources of batted-ball data, fed into the same estimation formula that is supposed to give you his "true" worth independent of luck and defense, came out half a run different. I think we'd all agree that half a run per game in the context of a pitcher is not a small difference whatsoever.
    For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible


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