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Thread: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

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    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Homer Bailey has opened the year with two consecutive starts that would generously be described as "below expectations." He's incredibly pitch inefficient, and he's having a difficult time putting hitters away even when he does get ahead of them. As a result, he's walked and hit as many as he's struck out, and he's averaging two baserunners per inning. Thus far, he's looked much like the Homer Bailey we know and love from previous years, and nothing like the guy who dominated a lot of teams with questionable talent level and incentive to win down the stretch last year.

    Homer's also out of options.

    Question of the day -- with the understanding that two starts hardly a season makes -- is how much of a leash does Homer get, and if things don't improve, what do you do with Mr. Bailey? Keep running him out there and hope that he figures it out, move him out to the bullpen to take Micah Owings' spot as the long man, or DFA him and hope some team is willing to give something for him in return?
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    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    I give him the entire season to see how things pan out, then I revisit the question in September. By then we will know what the club truly has with him.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Question of the day -- with the understanding that two starts hardly a season makes -- is how much of a leash does Homer get, and if things don't improve, what do you do with Mr. Bailey? Keep running him out there and hope that he figures it out, move him out to the bullpen to take Micah Owings' spot as the long man, or DFA him and hope some team is willing to give something for him in return?
    A. Perhaps you do not recall how he pitched at the end of 2009?

    One of the problems of not having watched legitimate pitching prospects for so long is that we Reds fans have no idea how to react when they don't pitch well.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Give him time. If he had back to back starts like this in July, nobody would be asking what we do about him. I know he's been in the org for a long time, but he's not even 24 yet (he will be in May). If you have to pull him out of the rotation, you put him in the bullpen. In any event, there's no way you DFA him.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by reds1869 View Post
    I give him the entire season to see how things pan out, then I revisit the question in September. By then we will know what the club truly has with him.
    Probably. I think this team wants to win this year, but no way they're better than the Cards, Rockies, or Braves. I have no problem tinkering this season, but yeah, this should be Bailey's last MLB tryout with the Reds.

    This team's starting, again--just as I said--is not very good at all. Other teams' young arms are light years ahead of ours: Hanson, Jimenez, Jurrjens. Heck, Brad Penny would be the Reds' ace.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    why does Harang get a pass from Hal? It's not like he has been lights out, or Cueto for that matter.

    I think Hal has had an ax to grind with Homer for the last couple of years. Homer must have not given him an exclusive
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    A. Perhaps you do not recall how he pitched at the end of 2009?

    One of the problems of not having watched legitimate pitching prospects for so long is that we Reds fans have no idea how to react when they don't pitch well.
    Sure I do -- but I also recall that he pitched against the Pirates (or whatever AAAA squad was playing in Pittsburgh at the time) something like 4 or 5 times down the stretch. More than a few people cautioned, at the time, that any good feelings people were having about Homer had to be tempered slightly with the fact that September numbers often lie.

    And really, the thrust of what I'm talking about here is more projection than anything else. Bailey is unbelievably talented, and I have no doubt that he could turn things around in his next start and never look back. I'm looking down the road if the trends we're seeing early on continue. It's a "What If?" worst-case scenario kind of thing.

    Can the team (and the bullpen) afford to carry a guy who's a 5 inning, 4 ER guy for an extended period of time?
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    If it were me, he gets the season, unless he is just indescribably awful by the end of May.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    If it were me, he gets the season, unless he is just indescribably awful by the end of May.
    Agreed.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Sure I do -- but I also recall that he pitched against the Pirates (or whatever AAAA squad was playing in Pittsburgh at the time) something like 4 or 5 times down the stretch. More than a few people cautioned, at the time, that any good feelings people were having about Homer had to be tempered slightly with the fact that September numbers often lie.

    And really, the thrust of what I'm talking about here is more projection than anything else. Bailey is unbelievably talented, and I have no doubt that he could turn things around in his next start and never look back. I'm looking down the road if the trends we're seeing early on continue. It's a "What If?" worst-case scenario kind of thing.

    Can the team (and the bullpen) afford to carry a guy who's a 5 inning, 4 ER guy for an extended period of time?
    I'd rather let Bailey take the lumps that they'd likely thrust Chapman to face otherwise. Bailey's ceiling is demonstrably lower. He's up to start for good this season, whether he improves or not, imo.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    This team's starting, again--just as I said--is not very good at all. Other teams' young arms are light years ahead of ours: Hanson, Jimenez, Jurrjens. Heck, Brad Penny would be the Reds' ace.
    I think if you offered the Cardinals Harang or Arroyo for Penny straight up (if the money was equaled out), they'd jump on the deal and scream "No takebacks" on their way home to St. Louis. But, that's just a guess on my part.

    And while other teams have better established starters, I like the potential mix of the Reds team. I think Chapman has a good shot to be better than any of the three you listed, and I like at least one of the "group" of Wood, Leake, and Bailey to break out to a good #2/#3 type guy. I'm lower on Leake than a lot of people here, but a lot of someones saw a lot of something in him last year and in the spring.

    And, really, the forgotten man here is Edinson Volquez, who was dominant when he was healthy. Given the way TJ's are done these days, we have no reason to think he won't come back in the same shape he left.
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    There's no way I'd give up on him--the guy is only 23 years old. I'd be willing to put him in the bullpen until things start to come together. Who would take his spot in the rotation? I'm open to Owings having it for a while, but I also wouldn't mind optioning Ondrusek and calling up Wood.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    He's given up some absurd amount of baserunners this year. His career ERA is north of 5.50. You give him time right now, but a deicision is going to have to be made when either Volquez comes back or Chapman is ready.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Bailey did face the Pirates four times in the last two months of the season, but he also had real good games against the Dodgers, Marlins, Rockies and Cardinals in that same timeframe - three playoff teams and another that was in the race until late in the season.

    I'm still mildly concerned about his consistency, but I also think there was nothing to downplay about his performance last season. I do think it was legitimately something to be encouraged over. He definitely hasn't had his good stuff yet this year, but I'll be much more concerned if we're still talking about it after 8-10 starts.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Unless he goes all Josh Fogg on us he's getting the ball every 5th day. Every pitcher has a stretch during the season where they struggle, you have to let them work their way through it. It'll take a few awful months, not an awful week, to dislodge him.


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