Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

[Caveat Emperor]

The superabundance of statistics makes this game seem so simple. Bailey's just automatically supposed to start the way he finished last year: as one of the most effective pitchers in the league. If he doesn't, away with him! Amazing.

Nobody is suggesting that at all -- the question is how long of a leash does he get, and what do you do if he doesn't turn it around.

[dougdirt]

13 is very good. Double digits is always pretty good.

For example, Tim Lincecum had 17 swings and misses in his 7 IP, 10 K outing against the Braves on Sunday.

In Adam Wainwright's 8 IP, 0 R outing against the Astros a few days ago, he had 7 swings and misses.

Wow to Lincecum's 17. I have seen guys put up 8+ strikeout games with less than 8 swings and misses. Double digit swings and misses is very impressive for one game.

[lollipopcurve]

Nobody is suggesting that at all

Sure you are. You threw out the DFA possibility.

[Falls City Beer]

He's given up some absurd amount of baserunners this year. His career ERA is north of 5.50. You give him time right now, but a deicision is going to have to be made when either Volquez comes back or Chapman is ready.

Volquez may not have the highest ceiling among the Reds' starters, but I still think he might end up being the best of them.

[Falls City Beer]

The difference between Homer at the end of 2009 and Homer in 2010 so far is one thing... the ability to locate his fastball. When he can throw his fastball where the catcher puts his mitt, he can get guys out. When he can't, he can't.

Let's not pretend like this problem hasn't plagued Homer far longer than his ability to control his fastball. Caveat's thesis is right: Homer Bailey's professional career has been two bright months surrounded by years of terrible control. Let's not count on anything.

This isn't some johnny-come-lately argument; this has been a consistent issue.

[Falls City Beer]

I think if you offered the Cardinals Harang or Arroyo for Penny straight up (if the money was equaled out), they'd jump on the deal and scream "No takebacks" on their way home to St. Louis. But, that's just a guess on my part.

And while other teams have better established starters, I like the potential mix of the Reds team. I think Chapman has a good shot to be better than any of the three you listed, and I like at least one of the "group" of Wood, Leake, and Bailey to break out to a good #2/#3 type guy. I'm lower on Leake than a lot of people here, but a lot of someones saw a lot of something in him last year and in the spring.

And, really, the forgotten man here is Edinson Volquez, who was dominant when he was healthy. Given the way TJ's are done these days, we have no reason to think he won't come back in the same shape he left.

I love potential. But Hanson, Jimenez, and Jurrjens are doing it. That is, unquestionably retiring MLB hitters with consistency. There's no guesswork or talk of ceilings with those guys; they're producing.

[jojo]

At this point you treat him like EE (at least like I advocated for EE during his final two years as a Red).... pencil him into the lineup and forget about him until finally, it is clear that his ceiling has been lowered to the point that better options are straightforward to accomplish...

[Brutus]

At this point you treat him like EE (at least like I advocated for EE during his final two years as a Red).... pencil him into the lineup and forget about him until finally, it is clear that his ceiling has been lowered to the point that better options are straightforward to accomplish...

That's not bad, but you also run the risk of running any remaining trade value into the ground to the point, like EE, the only way to trade him is to simply make someone take him off your hands as part of getting something else in return.

[RedsManRick]

I love potential. But Hanson, Jimenez, and Jurrjens are doing it. That is, unquestionably retiring MLB hitters with consistency. There's no guesswork or talk of ceilings with those guys; they're producing.

Surely you're not talking about Jurjjens and his 8.64 ERA through 2 starts this year?

[Falls City Beer]

That's not bad, but you also run the risk of running any remaining trade value into the ground to the point, like EE, the only way to trade him is to simply make someone take him off your hands as part of getting something else in return.

This is clearly the Reds' FO biggest blind spot in this decade. Always holding on too long to stuff they can't coach or can't fix.

I'd argue they're at a point with Bailey that his ability to eat innings outweighs what he'd return in trade at this point. JMO.

[Falls City Beer]

Surely you're not talking about Jurjjens and his 8.64 ERA through 2 starts this year?

Talking about the 55 MLB starts prior to his last two.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Nobody is suggesting that at all -- the question is how long of a leash does he get, and what do you do if he doesn't turn it around.

What are we going to do with Cueto if he doesn't turn around? We thought we had a future Cy Young winner on our hands with this guy and he labors every start to nearly every hitter; really I don't feel he's anymore effective start to start than Homer Bailey is; and he has never had a run like Homer had to close out 2009, whether it was against some expanded rosters or not. I just think Homer needs a little more time to get a true read on him. Why excercise the patience with Cueto but not Bailey? Especially when Harang is in our rotation and getting hammered 2 out of every 3 starts.

I'd like to see Bailey get this season. Not like we're contending for a World Series this year.

[Falls City Beer]

What are we going to do with Cueto if he doesn't turn around? We thought we had a future Cy Young winner on our hands with this guy and he labors every start to nearly every hitter; really I don't feel he's anymore effective start to start than Homer Bailey is; and he has never had a run like Homer had to close out 2009, whether it was against some expanded rosters or not. I just think Homer needs a little more time to get a true read on him. Why excercise the patience with Cueto but not Bailey? Especially when Harang is in our rotation and getting hammered 2 out of every 3 starts.

I'd like to see Bailey get this season. Not like we're contending for a World Series this year.

I'm certainly not delighted with Cueto's progress, but he is a year younger, and hasn't had the history of horrible control that Bailey has.

[lollipopcurve]

Caveat's thesis is right: Homer Bailey's professional career has been two bright months surrounded by years of terrible control.

This is pure mythology. 519 minor league innings - 525 Ks, 222 BBs.

[Ghosts of 1990]

That's not bad, but you also run the risk of running any remaining trade value into the ground to the point, like EE, the only way to trade him is to simply make someone take him off your hands as part of getting something else in return.

I'd say then so be it.

Gavin Floyd was similar in Philly as Homer is here. He went to the White Sox and is now an extremely solid starter for them. I think Homer needs more time, he's really young. 23 isn't the age to give up on a former #1 draft pick who was the top prospect in the system for years running without even giving him a full season if his arm can hold up and make all the starts.