Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

[Ron Madden]

Have we not been paying--and will continue to pay--a ransom in cash for mediocrity--Harang, Arroyo, Phillips? It's paying a ransom in cash for mediocrity that prevents so-called small market teams from acquiring TOR guys.

A very good point,

One that I have mentioned myself, on more than one occasion.

[Falls City Beer]

Why give Volquez one and not Bailey? If they were the same age when they first came up? Especially when you consider they BOTH were prematurely rushed to The Show while Bailey had better numbers in the minors? Is GAB not a brutal home park for pitchers too when Bailey first came up (The NL may have the most hitter friendly parks in all of baseball)? Your logic isn't making much sense. I think what it boils down to is you have your biases and you seem to have a tough time admitting that.

Check the stats, Volquez was still a better pitcher at age 23 than Homer was. It has nothing to do with bias. Is there any denying that the AL is a far more difficult league for a pitcher, especially one whose home park is Arlington? This is even a matter of discussion? If you can't succeed in the NL Central as a pitcher, you're probably not going to have much success anywhere.

[nate]

I'm a simple guy, but what strikes me about Homer and Johnny is, that even if there stuff is electric on a given night, they can't go the distance. By the fifth inning it seems like they are at 80 pitches.

Homer is averaging less than 6 innings a start, but throwing 109 pitches a game on average.

Johnny again less than 6 innings but at 102 pitches a game.

Those numbers may mean nothing at this point...when you give up tons of runs you tend to throw a lot of pitches

Pitchers that strikeout and walk a lot of batters also throw a lot of pitches.

[dougdirt]

Check the stats, Volquez was still a better pitcher at age 23 than Homer was. It has nothing to do with bias. Is there any denying that the AL is a far more difficult league for a pitcher, especially one whose home park is Arlington? This is even a matter of discussion? If you can't succeed in the NL Central as a pitcher, you're probably not going to have much success anywhere.

Arlington isn't a much worse park than GABP. The NL Central also doesn't have in division parks like Seattle and Oakland either. Then of course there is the sample as well in the majors. Volquez threw 34 innings. Bailey threw 113.1. It is just more of you seeing what you want and ignoring everything else.

[Cedric]

What have we got to lose? Keep throwing him out there and hopefully it comes together like it did in August.

[Falls City Beer]

Arlington isn't a much worse park than GABP. The NL Central also doesn't have in division parks like Seattle and Oakland either. Then of course there is the sample as well in the majors. Volquez threw 34 innings. Bailey threw 113.1. It is just more of you seeing what you want and ignoring everything else.

In roughly 180 innings in 2007 between the minors and MLB, Volquez destroyed the competition. Bailey's never approached numbers like that, and that's not even taking into account the numbers Volquez put up in his first full season as a MLB pitcher.

If your argument is that pitchers develop on their own schedule, then yeah, no disagreement. But if the argument is that we should have the same faith in Bailey as we do in Volquez, no thanks. I know exactly who the superior pitcher is.

[dougdirt]

In roughly 180 innings in 2007 between the minors and MLB, Volquez destroyed the competition. Bailey's never approached numbers like that, and that's not even taking into account the numbers Volquez put up in his first full season as a MLB pitcher.

If your argument is that pitchers develop on their own schedule, then yeah, no disagreement. But if the argument is that we should have the same faith in Bailey as we do in Volquez, no thanks. I know exactly who the superior pitcher is.

As I showed earlier in the post, Bailey in the minors performed almost exactly like Volquez in the minors despite being ahead of him level wise for a few years. In the major leagues, Bailey performed almost exactly like Volquez did through their age 23 season. And sure, Volquez had a very nice full season at age 24. Bailey is just now in his age 24 season, not yet having turned 24.

And of course you know who the superior pitcher is. You have been anti Homer Bailey for years.

As for faith, I have a ton more faith in Bailey than Volquez. Volquez struggled throwing strikes before TJ surgery. I am concerned that he won't ever be an effective starter again.

[TRF]

As for faith, I have a ton more faith in Bailey than Volquez. Volquez struggled throwing strikes before TJ surgery. I am concerned that he won't ever be an effective starter again.

no offense, but horse hockey. He was struggling to throw strikes because the ligament was gone. Once he fully recovers, his control will be back, he'll likely get a one year uptick in the speed of his fastball too. Considering he was hitting 98, I'm pleased. That bump in speed won't last but it'll be fun to watch.

Edinson Volquez is the Latin Homer Bailey. They are roughly the same pitcher in regards to results. Both walk a lot of guys, both K a lot of guys. Volquez might throw a little harder, Bailey might go deeper in games over the course of their careers.

Bailey had an outing he can build on. It's time to stop talking about potential and start talking about results though.

[fearofpopvol1]

Check the stats, Volquez was still a better pitcher at age 23 than Homer was. It has nothing to do with bias. Is there any denying that the AL is a far more difficult league for a pitcher, especially one whose home park is Arlington? This is even a matter of discussion? If you can't succeed in the NL Central as a pitcher, you're probably not going to have much success anywhere.

You're cherrypicking stats while ignoring some important ones. You're comparing fewer innings from Volquez to many more of Homer. And you're ignoring the fact that the AL East includes huge ballparks like Oakland and Seattle. I am all but certain NL Central parks have more HRs than AL East ones do.

[fearofpopvol1]

Bailey had an outing he can build on. It's time to stop talking about potential and start talking about results though.

When comparing the 2, it can't be ignored that Volquez's breaout season happened when he was 24. Bailey hasn't even turned 24 yet.

[dougdirt]

no offense, but horse hockey. He was struggling to throw strikes because the ligament was gone. Once he fully recovers, his control will be back, he'll likely get a one year uptick in the speed of his fastball too. Considering he was hitting 98, I'm pleased. That bump in speed won't last but it'll be fun to watch.

Edinson Volquez is the Latin Homer Bailey. They are roughly the same pitcher in regards to results. Both walk a lot of guys, both K a lot of guys. Volquez might throw a little harder, Bailey might go deeper in games over the course of their careers.

Bailey had an outing he can build on. It's time to stop talking about potential and start talking about results though.

Come on TRF.... Volquez in 2008 walked well over 4 batters per 9 innings. His minor league track record, like Baileys too, was full of him struggling to throw strikes for long periods of time. Volquez didn't throw lots of balls because of his ligament issue prior to 2009. The guy has issues throwing strikes.

[TRF]

Come on TRF.... Volquez in 2008 walked well over 4 batters per 9 innings. His minor league track record, like Baileys too, was full of him struggling to throw strikes for long periods of time. Volquez didn't throw lots of balls because of his ligament issue prior to 2009. The guy has issues throwing strikes.

And Bailey doesn't?

Volquez was effectively wild. 206 K's doesn't mean he has trouble throwing strikes. It means some players didn't bite when his pitches moved. And boy did they move. And his BB's didn't kill him when he's striking out nearly 9 per 9 innings.

You've been dead on comparing him to Bailey. They are essentially the same pitcher in terms of results. A lot of high K pitchers are also high BB pitchers. Homer certainly is no exception. Don't blast Volquez for high BB totals when in his 216 major league innings Bailey's walk rate is a tick higher than Volquez first full year.

And that IMO doesn't mean Bailey is in any way a bust. I'd take two EV's in a heartbeat.

[dougdirt]

And Bailey doesn't?

Volquez was effectively wild. 206 K's doesn't mean he has trouble throwing strikes. It means some players didn't bite when his pitches moved. And boy did they move. And his BB's didn't kill him when he's striking out nearly 9 per 9 innings.

You've been dead on comparing him to Bailey. They are essentially the same pitcher in terms of results. A lot of high K pitchers are also high BB pitchers. Homer certainly is no exception. Don't blast Volquez for high BB totals when in his 216 major league innings Bailey's walk rate is a tick higher than Volquez first full year.

And that IMO doesn't mean Bailey is in any way a bust. I'd take two EV's in a heartbeat.

Sure Bailey has had similar issues. The main difference is, one guy is coming back from an injury that is known to cause further control problems, especially for the first year after a player gets back. Take a guy who walked 4+ per 9 innings prior to that, and I simply have major concerns about placing that player in a major league rotation because I don't know if he can keep his walks under 5 per 9 for a while. That is the reason I would easily take Bailey over Volquez going forward.

[TRF]

Sure Bailey has had similar issues. The main difference is, one guy is coming back from an injury that is known to cause further control problems, especially for the first year after a player gets back. Take a guy who walked 4+ per 9 innings prior to that, and I simply have major concerns about placing that player in a major league rotation because I don't know if he can keep his walks under 5 per 9 for a while. That is the reason I would easily take Bailey over Volquez going forward.

You absolutely put him in the rotation. He has to get the feel of pitching again. Liriano is showing the fruits of the Twins patience this year.

Sure, he'll struggle, but he might not. He'll pitch as a Red this year, but I'd have him at AAA unless there is an injury to a starter. Then make him a Sept. callup and pitch him out of the pen this year, rotation next year.

[jojo]

In roughly 180 innings in 2007 between the minors and MLB, Volquez destroyed the competition.

I think what you're really keying on is the 50+ innings Volquez threw in AAA ball during his age 23 season (his A ball foray wasn't so impressive and for a 23 year old with major league experience, his AA ball numbers aren't that eye popping).

Why is that more impressive than the 60+ innings Homer threw to end his his age 23 season-in the majors?

I think this Volquez vs Homer narrative is a bit tortured as far as pitching evaluation goes (because neither really inform the other)...

Here's a blurb about Volquez's breakout '08 season:

It wouldn't surprise me if Volquez never posted an ERA below 3.50 again.

At issue is his true skill level (an important baseline for predicting his future).

Here's a breakdown of his season using the "half" split.

Volquez 2008													
Season	IP	FIP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9	BABIP	GB%	FB%	LD%	HR/FB	xFIP
1st	117.2	3.19	2.30	9.68	4.30	0.38	6.91	0.290	0.53	0.29	0.18	5.7	3.70
2nd	78.1	4.19	4.61	9.22	4.26	1.04	8.87	0.329	0.38	0.41	0.22	10.3	4.28

First, there is no doubt that Volquez took a step forward this season as he established himself as a legitimate major league starter.

That said, his season was a tale of two seasons. Clearly his first half was a hyperbolic one when just looking at his ERA and his second half, well, not so much. That said, looking at his peripherals, he was not a dramatically different fellow but for a couple notable exceptions. Upon closer look, his first half was driven substantially by an extremely low HR/FB rate for a starter (typically this parameter is considered out of control of a pitcher and deviations from 10-11% are expected to regress). He also demonstrated an ability to induce groundballs that was significantly higher than his career to date.

Basically in the second half his HR/FB% and GB% regressed back to expected levels. Mix in half a K less per 9 and a mild swing in his BABIP and not surprisingly, his ERA jumped dramatically.

So the point? I think Volquez's true skill level is probably captured by his "half split" xFIPs, i.e. it's somewhere between 3.70 and 4.30. Right now, it seems reasonable to split the difference and expect a xFIP of 4.00.

From that standpoint, I think an ERA of 4.00 isn't a shocking projection but one of 2.75-3.20 would be highly unlikely.

I also see no reason to expect Volquez to significantly decrease his walk rate moving forward.

Of course, now Volquez has had major surgery...