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Thread: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

  1. #46
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    This is pure mythology. 519 minor league innings - 525 Ks, 222 BBs.
    BB/IP ain't real good.

    K's are pretty, sure.

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  3. #47
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Keep running him out there until there is a better option, even if he has an era of 10
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Talking about the 55 MLB starts prior to his last two.
    I know; I was (poorly) pointing out the volatility of young pitchers.

    Bailey has 39 major league starts with a 4.97 FIP. No, that's not great, but for a 23 year old with plus stuff, it's just laughable to suggest he's on the hot seat.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I know; I was (poorly) pointing out the volatility of young pitchers.

    Bailey has 39 major league starts with a 4.97 FIP. No, that's not great, but for a 23 year old with plus stuff, it's just laughable to suggest he's on the hot seat.
    I'm sure he's not on the hot seat; except that he's out of options, no? So, yes, with the Reds some decisions probably need to be made or at least planned for.

    I honestly don't care what happens to Bailey when he no longer pitches for the Reds.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruce32 View Post
    I'd say then so be it.

    Gavin Floyd was similar in Philly as Homer is here. He went to the White Sox and is now an extremely solid starter for them. I think Homer needs more time, he's really young. 23 isn't the age to give up on a former #1 draft pick who was the top prospect in the system for years running without even giving him a full season if his arm can hold up and make all the starts.
    Floyd had only made 19 starts for the Phillies when he was traded in the Freddy Garcia deal. He still had value at that point. Homer Bailey has now made 39 starts for the Reds. Assuming he were to continue pitching poorly, he'll have very little value left - unlike Floyd.

    I'm not suggesting they trade Bailey. Nor am I saying he won't work out. However, the point is, you sometimes have to know when to hold (on to) 'em and know when to fold 'em.

    FYI, though it's not a big deal in what the Reds should or shouldn't do with Bailey, Floyd has been a league average starter for the White Sox. There's nothing wrong with that, but is it worth the risk of turning into nothing to hope he ends up league average? I'm not sure.
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    BB/IP ain't real good.
    It's OK. Not great, not poor. It is by no means horrible or terrible, as you described it.

    By the way, in his age 24 season (Bailey turns 24 in May) Ubaldo Jimenez walked 103 batters in 198 innings.
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    I think we are acting like Mike Leake is a sure bet. Truth be told; we have really have no sure bets in this rotation right now unless you count Arroyo. He's the closest thing we have to a 'stopper' or sure thing every 5th day. I think Volquez was one and then the arm troubles came.

    But really, Mike Leake might not end up better then what Bailey is giving us now. And here's an article talking about the history for players in Mike Leake's position of coming straight from college to the bigs: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/1...?tag=headlines

    I just think that, with young players patience has to be exercised. And when you're getting impatient, you have to bite the bullet and keep exercising it. There's several guys on the squad that fit that bill right now. Bailey, Bruce, Cueto, Stubbs, and so on.
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    It's OK. Not great, not poor. It is by no means horrible or terrible, as you described it.
    Combine it with his MLB BB rate, and the picture gets a lot uglier. So yeah, if you want to cherry-pick Bailey's "history" you can make it look better.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'm sure he's not on the hot seat; except that he's out of options, no? So, yes, with the Reds some decisions probably need to be made or at least planned for.

    I honestly don't care what happens to Bailey when he no longer pitches for the Reds.
    I guess my point is that we have no reason to believe the Reds will need to jettison Homer for performance reasons. Even as a 5.00 ERA starter, he'd be better than the typical #5. And if you want to make room for Chapman, fine, move him to the bullpen -- he'd certainly be better than Lincoln and Ondrusek.

    But even as the 11th or 12th man on the staff if it came to that, you deal with the downside because the upside isn't going away. Ubaldo Jiminez was referenced earlier. Many pitchers take until 25 or 26 until they reach their potential. And so long as Homer isn't killing us, he should and will get every opportunity to live up to it.

    Sure, we should plan for the possibility that he'll become a sub-replacement player. But that could be said about virtually anybody. Unless and until there are 11 other guys outpitching him in the majors and somebody tearing up the minors who needs a spot, I see nothing to get worked up about which requires advanced planning.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #55
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Who in the Reds organization should be taking starts from Homer at this point?
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  12. #56
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Sure you are. You threw out the DFA possibility.
    He's out of options, so that's always a possibiltiy -- especially if it's true that he can't work effectively out of the bullpen.

    If Wood and Chapman are knocking on the door at AAA and Volquez comes back from surgery, are the Reds going to continue to trot Homer Bailey out for 5 IP / 4 ER every 5 games?
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Who in the Reds organization should be taking starts from Homer at this point?
    Yes, the Reds have a paucity of starters. Despite the sanguine claims of depth.

    Still, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see either Wood or Chapman outpitch him in every way possible. Plus, Volquez will return late in the year.

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Yes, the Reds have a paucity of starters. Despite the sanguine claims of depth.

    Still, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see either Wood or Chapman outpitch him in every way possible. Plus, Volquez will return late in the year.
    I think what some are saying is; in that case wouldn't Wood and Chapman be also outpitching Harang and possibly Cueto as well? Why dismiss Homer?

    I think Volquez should regain form at the end of this year in AAA. No sense letting him work out his kinks while he's not at full strength at GABP or it might dent him for good.
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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    He's out of options, so that's always a possibiltiy -- especially if it's true that he can't work effectively out of the bullpen.

    If Wood and Chapman are knocking on the door at AAA and Volquez comes back from surgery, are the Reds going to continue to trot Homer Bailey out for 5 IP / 4 ER every 5 games?
    If that happens, you dump Homer, but right now may as well run him no matter what because Kip Wells is not the answer.
    Go Gators!

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    Re: Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed View Post
    If that happens, you dump Homer, but right now may as well run him no matter what because Kip Wells is not the answer.
    This.


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