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Thread: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

  1. #1
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    There's a lot of talk about Bruce in various threads. It's all for good reason, and I'm growing fairly concerned with the kid's lack of production and overall what I've started to see in his approach (or lack thereof) during his at-bats.

    The question or the question(s) go like this:
    -Why is he struggling? He had a good spring after a strong finish to the 2009 season. He hit the ball well the first 8 games of the season even if results didn't show. It's not like he lost his ability that he used all spring on the plane ride back from Arizona to Cincinnati.
    -Where does it go from here for Bruce? Could he turn into a platoon player, seeing only starts against RHP as early as May into the rest of the season?
    -Do you send him to AAA Louisville? If so, when do you do it and when do you consider bringing him back to Cincinnati? Also who do you call up to fill the void in the outfield?
    -At what point, if any; do the Reds consider maybe trading Jay for a change of scenery? Is it way too early to consider this?

    If nothing else, after discussing the initial questions; we can track his slump or success here. Hopefully, this thread brings him a little bit of good karma. We need this kid to turn it around for a lot of reasons. I feel bad for him.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Congrats on your 2 weeks worth of analysis. BTW, did you notice that Vernon Wells is the greatest player in the history of baseball? Pretty cool eh?
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    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Congrats on your 2 weeks worth of analysis. BTW, did you notice that Vernon Wells is the greatest player in the history of baseball? Pretty cool eh?
    I'd love to be wrong more then anything in this world; but my eyes aren't lying. I feel that he doesn't look right up there. At bat after at bat he is not doing a lot with fastballs that are grooved.

    Ever checked out Inside Edge?

    http://espn.inside-edge.com/HRC.aspx...M71NXrjRoMhk0=

    I think a lot of the posters in ORG will like it. It's detailed scouting analysis. I was surprised to see they rate Bruce as a C+ performance at the plate thus far this year. He was a C- in 2008 and a C+ last year.

    In comparison, Votto is a B- this year and Jason Heyward is a B.

    It's only been two weeks, but inside edge says Bruce will hit .242 with 20 HR, 62 RBI, and 68 runs scored.

    http://espn.inside-edge.com/PlayerPr...izyA/PRAF/nQ==

    If that was offered to us as fans--as poor as he's looked--would you take it? Sad to think about but I am having doubts that he reaches any of those totals if I were betting someone.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
    2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Congrats on your 2 weeks worth of analysis. BTW, did you notice that Vernon Wells is the greatest player in the history of baseball? Pretty cool eh?
    2 weeks? it's 881 at bats and counting.
    Go Gators!

  6. #5
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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Jay Bruce needs a hitting coach that knows what he's doing. It's pretty obvious from Jay's batting stance and swing that he has some holes that need to be fixed. It'd be nice to have a guy coaching Jay that could fix these errors.
    "....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruce32 View Post
    He had a good spring after a strong finish to the 2009 season. He hit the ball well the first 8 games of the season even if results didn't show.
    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruce32 View Post
    It's not like he lost his ability that he used all spring on the plane ride back from Arizona to Cincinnati.

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruce32 View Post
    At what point, if any; do the Reds consider maybe trading Jay for a change of scenery? Is it way too early to consider this?
    The question isn't really a logical extension of the observations IMHO....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The question isn't really a logical extension of the observations IMHO....
    I'm asking is that something the Reds should consider. It's something I wouldn't think to be an option. But I've also seen some posters suggest it already this season.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
    2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
    2013 Attendance Record: 5-2 2014 Attendance Record: 3-0

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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruce32 View Post
    I'm asking is that something the Reds should consider. It's something I wouldn't think to be an option. But I've also seen some posters suggest it already this season.
    All teams should always be willing to trade all of their players for the right return. Jay Bruce is no different than Willy Taveras or Albert Pujols in this regard.

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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed View Post
    2 weeks? it's 881 at bats and counting.
    This is the number that should be concerning us. The poor has surpassed the good, and my optimism has been surpassed by concern.
    Let's play two!!!

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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Crosley68 View Post
    This is the number that should be concerning us. The poor has surpassed the good, and my optimism has been surpassed by concern.
    Is there some threshold of major league AB's by which we more or less "know" a player's skill set? I'm sure statisticians have made some queries into this matter... right?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Is there some threshold of major league AB's by which we more or less "know" a player's skill set? I'm sure statisticians have made some queries into this matter... right?
    Maybe an important query to begin with would be to compile the list of players that actually recorded 880 major league PAs by their age 23 season..
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Bruce is very talented and should have a good future. But he's hitting .146 and, if it continues, he needs to go to AAA for awhile. At some point the Reds will have no choice and will have to do this, unless Bruce improves soon.

    Which is ok, he's 23, he's not immune to the difficulties of breaking in.

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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Maybe an important query to begin with would be to compile the list of players that actually recorded 880 major league PAs by their age 23 season..
    Which probably leads to the conclusion that he probably isn't ready to be here at 23, much less garner nearly 1000 pa's. Sending him back to AAA isn't saying he sucks, but rather putting him back where he belongs with regards to his peers. And that's exactly what I'd do. Same with Stubbs.
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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    "Fans want the player to be not what he inherently is but what they think he ought to be."

    Jim Bronson

    Code:
    CAREER
    1995-2009
    AGE < 23
    AT BATS <= 2000
    PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    SLG vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    SECONDARY AVERAGE vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RUNS CREATED/GAME               DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     AB       PA       OBA      SLG      SEC    
    1    Albert Pujols              3.13     8.28     5.15     1180     1351     .059     .154     .101   
    2    Pablo Sandoval             2.56     7.60     5.04      717      787     .042     .120     .016   
    3    Adam Dunn                  1.91     7.00     5.10      779      962     .052     .065     .199   
    4    David Wright               1.87     7.00     5.13      838      940     .032     .093     .074   
    5    Vladimir Guerrero          1.67     6.77     5.10      975     1058     .019     .121     .032   
    6    Miguel Cabrera             1.44     6.60     5.16     1530     1716     .025     .091     .050   
    7    Ben Grieve                 1.28     6.45     5.18      676      786     .048     .028     .036   
    8    Scott Rolen                1.10     6.21     5.11      691      803     .026     .032     .049   
    9    Justin Upton               1.03     6.12     5.09     1022     1157     .011     .060     .074   
    10   Hanley Ramirez             0.92     6.26     5.33      635      702     .009     .037     .068   
    11   Grady Sizemore             0.73     5.67     4.94      778      865     .013     .044     .042   
    12   Hank Blalock               0.70     5.69     4.99      714      787     .007     .054     .023   
    13   B.J. Upton                 0.67     5.78     5.10      808      914     .018     .013     .054   
    14   Prince Fielder             0.37     5.68     5.31      628      710     .001     .040     .030   
    15   Troy Tulowitzki            0.30     5.60     5.30      705      790     .011     .017    -.002   
    16   Eric Chavez                0.25     5.70     5.45      902     1019    -.002     .023     .035   
    17   Andruw Jones               0.24     5.51     5.27     1679     1890    -.009     .045     .080   
    18   Ryan Zimmerman             0.13     5.43     5.30     1325     1466     .001     .030     .009   
    19   Derek Jeter                0.11     5.63     5.52      630      705     .015    -.018    -.075   
    20   Carlos Beltran             -.02     5.36     5.38      721      786    -.011     .015    -.016   
    21   Jimmy Rollins              -.08     5.21     5.29      709      775    -.015    -.024    -.013   
    22   Rafael Furcal              -.10     5.36     5.46      779      901     .019    -.066    -.004   
    23   Rocco Baldelli             -.20     4.88     5.08     1155     1249    -.010    -.006    -.042   
    24   Carl Crawford              -.24     4.81     5.06     1515     1611    -.020    -.030    -.028   
    25   Adrian Beltre              -.33     5.11     5.44     1718     1918    -.011    -.011    -.018   
    26   Jeff Francoeur             -.43     4.82     5.26      908      960    -.037     .039    -.036   
    27   Jay Bruce                  -.45     4.62     5.07      758      839    -.030     .036     .044   
    28   Billy Butler               -.45     4.53     4.98      772      838    -.003    -.002    -.051   
    29   Melky Cabrera              -.47     4.66     5.12     1024     1155     .001    -.042    -.035   
    30   Sean Burroughs             -.49     4.63     5.12      709      784     .003    -.048    -.089   
    31   Delmon Young               -.51     4.50     5.01     1346     1435    -.011    -.011    -.080   
    32   Jose Reyes                 -.62     4.50     5.12     1190     1254    -.037    -.035    -.045   
    33   Troy Glaus                 -.68     4.67     5.35      716      813    -.026    -.025     .019   
    34   Omar Infante               -.77     4.33     5.10      796      875    -.027    -.039    -.038   
    35   Johnny Damon               -.82     4.62     5.45      705      772    -.033    -.053    -.072   
    36   Jose Guillen              -1.04     4.07     5.11     1071     1131    -.042    -.012    -.094   
    37   Juan Uribe                -1.13     3.97     5.10      839      901    -.041    -.028    -.079   
    38   Luis Rivas                -1.19     3.83     5.02      937     1029    -.020    -.053    -.055   
    39   Jose Lopez                -1.26     3.89     5.15     1000     1076    -.038    -.043    -.094   
    40   Edgardo Alfonzo           -1.34     3.72     5.06      703      763    -.037    -.059    -.125   
    41   Carlos Gomez              -1.34     3.66     5.00      701      753    -.042    -.073    -.061   
    42   Corey Patterson           -1.45     3.65     5.10      765      820    -.062    -.048    -.082   
    43   Mike Caruso               -1.66     3.64     5.29     1052     1119    -.039    -.093    -.156   
    44   Cristian Guzman           -2.06     3.41     5.46     1051     1146    -.062    -.099    -.087
    Last edited by westofyou; 04-18-2010 at 12:07 PM.

  16. #15
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: The definitive Jay Bruce thread

    That's a good list, WOY. Of the guys ranked below Bruce, I'd say about 50% of them became major league busts. If Bruce's career on-base% continues to hover around .300, he'll be another one. So I agree that there is reason to be concerned.

    Am I correct that he still has minor league options remaining? If the Reds are serious about contending this year, they should seriously consider sending him down to work things out in slower motion. Right now he is the Reds' outfielder that I have the fifth most confidence in.
    How, then, are those people of the futureówho are taking steroids every dayógoing to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids


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