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Thread: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    Stubbs offense is more than a little troubling at the moment. His contact rate is < 65% and his K rate is > 40% (if you want a comparison Dunns worst K rate ever was 34% and contact rate was 70%). There is no way Stubbs can have offensive success at anywhere near those rates.

    Carbrera currently has a UZR/150 of -36. That is off the charts bad and this correlates with what observation has been providing, Cabrera isn't getting to anything. His defense took a huge step backward in 09 (not unusual for a mid 30s SS) but it has gotten even worse this season. There is really no way then can win with that kind of play at SS.
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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    Agreed on both accounts. The good news is that now teams have almost exclusively started throwing offspeed pitches at Stubbs, so he's going to have to grow up real fast.

    Cabrera, at least defensively, is probably what he is. He's hitting decent, but probably not well enough to justify the difference between his defense and Paul Janish.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Cabrera, at least defensively, is probably what he is. He's hitting decent, but probably not well enough to justify the difference between his defense and Paul Janish.
    Cabrera is hitting .226/.228/.396 - .624 OPS. I think Paul Janish could OPS .624, and play much, much better defense too.

    I'm willing to give Stubbs a little more time.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #4
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    Cabrera has an OPS of 625 with an OBP of 228. There is no way he should be playing but the only thing that will drive him from the lineup is an injury.

    Funny habit the Reds have of shooting themselves in the foot.

    BTW, Stubbs deserves more time but he has zero chance of success with those peripherals.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  6. #5
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    Since Cabrera's Babip is only 10 points higher than Bruce's, should we be expecting an uptick in his production?

  7. #6
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    Not too worried about Stubbs right now. I do think Dusty needs to move him out of leadoff for the time being. He has done a good job of working counts, but isn't making teams pay when he gets to 3-1, 3-2. If he keeps working the counts like he is his numbers will improve.

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    In the FWIW department, here are their PECOTA and ZIPS projections for the seasons which factor in what they've done so far this year. By comparison, I've also provided Dickerson and Janish.
    Code:
    Player		PECOTA		ZIPS
    Stubbs     .229/.306/.351  .224/.298/.336
    Cabrera    .264/.314/.366  .280/.331/.379
    
    Dickerson  .247/.335/.396  .255/.337/.401
    Janish	   .215/.300/.311  .246/.319/.367
    It seems to me that they sell Dickerson short. But in any event, I think it's increasingly hard to make the case for Cabrera over Janish given that Janish could very well be 20 runs better with the glove. Cabrera has indeed suffered from bad luck, but he's hardly a stud when he's not unlucky. For Stubbs, I'd just like to see him get his at bats and have the opportunity to adjust & improve.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    Stubbs I'm worried about, but I don't think O-Cab's fallen off the cliff yet.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    I'd like to see Stubbs get out of his funk in Louisville, not here. Send him to AAA and let Heisey try his luck with the big club. Stubbs is not even trying to hit the breaking stuff now. He's taking them even in the heart of the plate on a 3-2 count

  11. #10
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Since Cabrera's Babip is only 10 points higher than Bruce's, should we be expecting an uptick in his production?
    Cabrera's balls in play are more of the weak grounder to short variety....Bruce is at least putting consistent meat on his B'sIP.

    I dreaded Cabrera's signing....and think he's costing this team some a trememdous amount more with his defensive ineptitude than he's 'potentially' providing with better offense than Pablo Janish.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  12. #11
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    Funny, Dickerson got off to a horrid start last year, .197 .316 .288 .604, with a pretty bad K rate (not as bad as Stubbs) and many were wanting him replaced by Nix. At the end of the year, it was obvious that he should have been starting over Nix.

    Not saying that this will happen with Stubbs, but just funny that Dickerson was the guy people wanted to bench last year and now he's the guy people want to replace Stubbs.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  13. #12
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    And if Cabrera keeps playing like this for another month, it's a no brainer. Janish needs to start then.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  14. #13
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Funny, Dickerson got off to a horrid start last year, .197 .316 .288 .604, with a pretty bad K rate (not as bad as Stubbs) and many were wanting him replaced by Nix. At the end of the year, it was obvious that he should have been starting over Nix.

    Not saying that this will happen with Stubbs, but just funny that Dickerson was the guy people wanted to bench last year and now he's the guy people want to replace Stubbs.
    Also known as the Backup QB syndrome.

    Stubbs is painful to watch right now. My hope is this is one of his patented horrible slumps, and he will come out of it red hot one of these days. He was blazing hot, in spring training. Believe it or not he has seen breaking balls before, or at least I am led to believe that he has.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  15. #14
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    At the beginning of May 2007, his first full year in the majors, Dustin Pedroia had this line:

    .172 .294 .224 .518

    Not saying Stubbs will win MVP next year, but he should come close to his projected numbers if he plays the whole season.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  16. #15
    Member SirFelixCat's Avatar
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    Re: I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Cabrera is hitting .226/.228/.396 - .624 OPS. I think Paul Janish could OPS .624, and play much, much better defense too.

    I'm willing to give Stubbs a little more time.
    Agreed on both counts, but w/ the caveat that Stubbs gets moved down to 7th or 8th in the lineup!


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