Thanks again for solid analysis, but just for clarification, it should be Votto/Cairo = Votto/HernandezOriginally Posted by RedsManRick
Thanks again for solid analysis, but just for clarification, it should be Votto/Cairo = Votto/Hernandez
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
Stubbs has started 10 games, Dickerson has started 7 (5 in CF). Dickerson is not exactly chained to the bench.
Interesting (and admittedly meaningless) stat of the day: the Reds are 1-6 when Dickerson starts, 0-5 when he starts in CF.
No, I'm not happy with Dickerson at the plate right now. Neither am I surprised at Stubbs at the plate. But you make my point here regarding both players.
The difference between Dickerson and Stubbs in CF is probably negligible. I'll give the edge to Stubbs, but prior to his arrival in the system, Dickerson was the best defender in the OF. I still think they are likely 1-2 with no major drop off between them. Offensively, Stubbs is beyond horrible right now. So you live with CD's sub par production and the defense takes no hit, because subpar is much better than "Send him to AAA bad".
At SS, it's different. Janish's defense is so much better than OCab's that no one can justify him defensively as a starter. Offensively, Cabrera has been almost but not quite as bad as Stubbs. SAMPLE SIZE ALERT... Janish hasn't been bad. Of course he's not as good as his current numbers we know that, but he might save 20 runs or more defensively. And frankly right now, this staff needs every plus glove it can get behind them.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
In my opinion, the situation in left and center are totally up in the air. Simply because any backup solution we may have...is struggling as well. I guess we could give Nix a start or two...but he's looked pretty overmatched at the plate too. If we go strictly defense for LF & CF, then it's Dickerson/Stubbs. I'd lean towards that, if for no other reason it might get Dusty to lean towards those two hitting 1-2 and bumping the SS out of that equation. But right now, NONE of the LF/CF options are hitting.
In regards to short...this one's a no brainer as far as I'm concerned. Since the start of spring...all Janish has done at the plate is produce. I'm not deluded enough (not QUITE) to think that he's "turned the corner" or some such. But I AM convinced that he's going to hit enough to justify that glove. That glove solves SOOOOO many problems IMO. More inning ending DP's, fewer bloop singles & seeing-eye groundballs, more confidence for the pitchers, etc, etc. I just don't see what Cabrera brings to the table. I know he's had some "clutch" hits, but overall he's been pretty pedestrian at the plate and abysmal in the field. Time for a change...and quickly.
I don't believe that Cairo will get 25+ starts at 1B. In the FWIW department, Fangraphs has released its first run of UZR data, with some adjustments to account for park effects.
This data is not predictive in any way, shape, or form (which is why I didn't post the UZR/150), but it can be considered an accurate description of what has happened to date. For the uninitiated, the currency here is runs.
To my earlier, point, I don't think the performance we've gotten defensively so far is indicative of what we can generally expect moving forward.
I must say, I'm very curious about the plays which Stubbs has botched -- they don't immediately come to mind. But fangraphs has him not making only 17 of 19 plays in zone and with a big -0.9 against him for his arm. OCab has made a ridiculously poor 72.5% plays in zone, 4th worst in baseball among SS with 100 innings. Sadly, he was 3rd worst in baseball last year at 76.3%. Janish, by contrast, was the best in MLB at 86.1%. Their UZRs last year were over 20 runs apart. I doubt Cabrera's bat makes up that difference...Code:Name Pos Inn UZR Joey Votto 1B 124 2.1 Jay Bruce RF 127 1.9 Chris Dickerson RF 7 0.7 Paul Janish SS 10 0.5 Chris Dickerson CF 36 0.5 Brandon Phillip 2B 134 0.3 Juan Francisco 3B 9 0.0 Miguel Cairo 3B 8 0.0 Paul Janish 3B 21 0.0 Laynce Nix LF 19 -0.1 Miguel Cairo 1B 10 -0.3 Chris Dickerson LF 14 -0.4 Scott Rolen 3B 95 -1.8 Orlando Cabrera SS 124 -2.4 Jonny Gomes LF 101 -2.4 Drew Stubbs CF 98 -4.2
Data from here: http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?...n=2010&month=0
Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-22-2010 at 03:43 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Im not going to put my faith in Janish and 11 at bats this season. He will get a chance to prove himself this season and after 100 at bats if he still is doing well then yea I can see the Reds giving him more playing time.
Well, at this rate, 100 ABs is about what he'll end up with come October.
Performance at the plate will vary throughout the year for ALL players (well, maybe not freakin' pooholes). Cabrera may very well bounce back a bit and hit somewhat better. Janish (and I'm looking at the 40 or so ST ab's too) may very well regress back to his poor hitting too. Both are certainly likely. But their skills with the gloves aren't going to change much. THAT'S where you've simply GOT to put Janish in there for starting. Cabrera's glove is killing us. It's just HORRIBLE. He can't jump to get balls above his head, he's got no lateral quickness at all, his range is simply abysmal, and his arm isn't anything to write home about. If it were any other position than CF or SS...I'd consider to let some of it slide if he were hitting well. But it IS shortstop...and he's not hitting well. Janish may hit or he may not...but he WILL field his position and help his teammates & pitchers with his D.
How many GB's past OCab would you allow. Faith is a funny thing. Enough of it can blind you to other things. OCab isn't hitting and his defense is bad. But he did win some hardware.
Do you have faith that he's going to be a plus defender again?
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Last year he got roughly 300 at bats and didn't run away with the job. This year he will get his playing time, maybe not as much as people want, but if he keeps hitting he will get his chance.
The other night FSN showed a slow motion replay of Janish RBI hit in the 8th inning. I was shocked to see how little wrist action he has. He generates little power from his wrist action which may be the reason behind his lack of power development. After seeing his swing in slow motion I just don't think his offensive game will ever be up to snuff. The best I hope for out of Janish is to become a very good bat handler, someone who is difficult to strike out and knows how to take a walk.
That's what he is right now. His career K-rate (14.7%) is less than the MLB average (17.8%) and his BB-rate (8.9%) is a tick above average (8.8%).
He is what he is. I think he's as valuable if not more so than O-Cab.
Plus, he'd be one of the better relievers!
I was looking up his stats and just had to chuckle at his pitching line. His ERA is in the 40's but he does have 2K's.
Plus, he'd be one of the better relievers!
From what I've seen so far, I don't. Having said that, I was perfectly okay with bringing him in. Janish is what he is -- he's an excellent defender and he can't hit. Not good enough, in other words, and the Reds gave themselves a chance to do better. But if Cabrera isn't better, then yes, move Janish in. Given two shortstops of more-or-less equivalent total value, I take the superior defender because of the residual benefits to the pitching staff.
Reading comprehension is not just an ability, it's a choice
*Bump*
I've been hard on Orlando Cabrera for his defense, but I have no problem giving credit where credit is due. Cabrera has made a couple nice plays in the last three games. The first was the relay throw to Hernandez to get Schumaker at the plate on Saturday night, and the other play was tonight when he threw out Alcides Escobar at the plate on a groundball from Ryan Braun. That was a very, very good play by Cabrera. I didn't think he had a chance to get him but he did.
I still think his range is well below average, but he's made some nice plays in the last few days and I felt like I should point that out. I may criticize players sometimes but I also like to be fair and give them credit when they deserve it. I hope he continues to play well like he has lately.
I have to second everything OBM says here.His defense was really bad early on but at least on the surface it appears to be improving.One poster mentioned that it was possible that as the season went on maybe the older Cabrera would loosen up a bit.Looks like that might end up being the case.There's reason to believe he'll continue to hit so I'm on board.
I no longer indorse Janish for SS in 2010.
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