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Thread: Zach Stewart's progress

  1. #421
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Who would've guessed that a Gold Glove-winning All-Star with an .846 OPS at the time of the trade (Rolen) + millions of dollars would cost a AAAA player (Roenicke), a player with negative value (Encarnacion), and an actual prospect (Stewart)? Let's be real. At no point did the Reds 'overpay'. As Reds fans, we overvalue our own prospects. I remember people around here being upset that the Reds traded away Red Turner and Brandon Waring to obtain Ramon Hernandez.

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  3. #422
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Who would've guessed that a Gold Glove-winning All-Star with an .846 OPS at the time of the trade (Rolen) + millions of dollars would cost a AAAA player (Roenicke), a player with negative value (Encarnacion), and an actual prospect (Stewart)? Let's be real. At no point did the Reds 'overpay'. As Reds fans, we overvalue our own prospects. I remember people around here being upset that the Reds traded away Red Turner and Brandon Waring to obtain Ramon Hernandez.
    Except that no one should have expected Rolen to be an .846 OPS bat over a full season (because he simply hasn't been able to stay healthy for one in a while) or a gold glover (the guy is good, but lets be honest, he wasn't the best defensive 3B in the NL last season). What Rolen was last season shouldn't have been expected, so the fact that he did those things doesn't change anything.

  4. #423
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I am never going to believe that the Reds didn't overpay for Scott Rolen, no matter what happens in the future because what happens in the future has no bearing on the process for which the trade went through.
    Unless you're able to source and prove what other teams offered or were willing to offer, this is not objective analysis.

    Facts are facts and thus far, Rolen has netted a higher WAR number than the players that went to the Blue Jays and until the tides turn on that front, the Reds won the trade. Plus, it's not like there is any sort of conclusive evidence that Stewart is going to be a stud or that Roenicke is going to be either. The Reds went after a player that was a good bet and one that has and will continue to help the team at a position that was previously a weakness. Isn't the goal to try to be at least average or above average at every position? 3B was below average with EdE, Roenicke is not a major leaguer and Stewart is still a question mark and not getting any younger. What's not to like?

    I'm willing to bet that Roenicke, EdE and Stewart do not post a total WAR number in Blue Jays' uniforms higher than what Rolen will produce in a Reds one. Assuming that ends up being true, the Reds will not have overpaid. The Reds will only have overpaid if those Blue Jays players do produce WAR above that of Rolen.
    Last edited by fearofpopvol1; 05-14-2011 at 04:37 AM.

  5. #424
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    I'm willing to bet that Roenicke, EdE and Stewart do not post a total WAR number in Blue Jays' uniforms higher than what Rolen will produce in a Reds one. Assuming that ends up being true, the Reds will not have overpaid. The Reds will only have overpaid if those Blue Jays players do produce WAR above that of Rolen.
    I'm not sure that is the way to look at it. Rolen has been a windfall that has provided tons of value and even those who were against the deal knew that he was a big upgrade from EdE, but that doesn't mean the Reds couldn't have gotten him for less.

    If you buy a house for 200K and its value rockets to $500K you're surely happy with the deal. But if you could have bought the same house for $75K, then you still overpaid.

    I'm with Doug, Rolen wanted out of Toronto and there was really nowhere else for him to go. His OPS of .840+ last year was probably about 60 points higher than what should have been expected and he was and is a damaged player whose skills have been compromised by injury and isn't the guy that the back of his baseball card says anymore. Under those conditions, giving up Stewart seemed too much to me. Even if the Reds had made the decision that Stewart was a mirage, his value was skyrocketing and he could have been dealt for something else. At the time, he probably had more value than any prospect the Phillies gave for Cliff Lee.

    IMO, even the Chicago market was too far from Rolen's home for him to accept a deal there. Since he'd burned his bridge in St, Louis, I think it was Cincy or retirement to be near his family for Rolen. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say Rolen asked Walt "get me out of here now" and Walt simply tired of negotiating and made a deal that he knew would be accepted quickly. Rumor at the time was that the Jays wanted Alonso. Had it been Alonso instead of Stewart, I'd have thought it was a fair deal. I just hate giving up highly regarded pitching without getting pitching in return. Intead the Reds got some cash to pay the salary difference and that is what made this an overpayment in my mind. I'm not opposed to selling off assets to help with the budget, but dealing what was, at the time, the best pitching prospect simply to balance the dollars in the deal didn't seem a good idea. I'd have waited until the off-season and added Rolen before the 2010 season when that money to balance the 2009 budget was no longer a factor. Adding him for the end of 2009 was meaningless in the overall plan and I really don't think he'd have willingly played anywhere else.
    Last edited by mth123; 05-14-2011 at 07:06 AM.
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    IMO, the only way to objectively evaluate a trade is in the context of players' performance after the trade (and/or, if there's significant $$$ involved, by looking at how the $$$ was deployed post-trade, to the extent that is discernable). Considerations at the time of the trade -- for example, other trades that may have been possible based on perceived (which is not actual) value -- are largely pure speculation with no objective basis. Using those considerations even as post-trade evidence accumulates over entire seasons of play seems to me nothing but stubbornness and a willfull attempt to raise one's own biases above plain fact.

    To say that the Rolen trade has been anything but a huge win for the Reds -- regardless of what happens with the guys they let go -- is either ignorance or denial, IMO.
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  7. #426
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'm not sure that is the way to look at it. Rolen has been a windfall that has provided tons of value and even those who were against the deal knew that he was a big upgrade from EdE, but that doesn't mean the Reds couldn't have gotten him for less.

    If you buy a house for 200K and its value rockets to $500K you're surely happy with the deal. But if you could have bought the same house for $75K, then you still overpaid.

    I'm with Doug, Rolen wanted out of Toronto and there was really nowhere else for him to go. His OPS of .840+ last year was probably about 60 points higher than what should have been expected and he was and is a damaged player whose skills have been compromised by injury and isn't the guy that the back of his baseball card says anymore. Under those conditions, giving up Stewart seemed too much to me. Even if the Reds had made the decision that Stewart was a mirage, his value was skyrocketing and he could have been dealt for something else. At the time, he probably had more value than any prospect the Phillies gave for Cliff Lee.

    IMO, even the Chicago market was too far from Rolen's home for him to accept a deal there. Since he'd burned his bridge in St, Louis, I think it was Cincy or retirement to be near his family for Rolen. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say Rolen asked Walt "get me out of here now" and Walt simply tired of negotiating and made a deal that he knew would be accepted quickly. Rumor at the time was that the Jays wanted Alonso. Had it been Alonso instead of Stewart, I'd have thought it was a fair deal. I just hate giving up highly regarded pitching without getting pitching in return. Intead the Reds got some cash to pay the salary difference and that is what made this an overpayment in my mind. I'm not opposed to selling off assets to help with the budget, but dealing what was, at the time, the best pitching prospect simply to balance the dollars in the deal didn't seem a good idea. I'd have waited until the off-season and added Rolen before the 2010 season when that money to balance the 2009 budget was no longer a factor. Adding him for the end of 2009 was meaningless in the overall plan and I really don't think he'd have willingly played anywhere else.
    I understand simply saying, I think the Reds gave up too much to get Rolen, but it was a good deal for the Reds in the end. Fine. Some had a higher value on Stewart...I get that. But I asked Doug a few months back if he would undo the trade if he could, and he said yes. I doubt you stand with him on that front. And to be honest, I struggle with Doug on that one, for he is one of the more knowedglable ones on here...but I just hope one day he sees the light and realizes this deal was a plus for the Reds.

    And I would have not been happy at the time of the deal myself had it been Yonder instead of Stewart.

  8. #427
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Where would Stewart fit in the rotation if that trade was undone?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #428
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Except that no one should have expected Rolen to be an .846 OPS bat over a full season (because he simply hasn't been able to stay healthy for one in a while) or a gold glover (the guy is good, but lets be honest, he wasn't the best defensive 3B in the NL last season). What Rolen was last season shouldn't have been expected, so the fact that he did those things doesn't change anything.
    So, no one could have expected Rolen to remain an .846 bat and a gold glover (which for the lionshare of his career he has been and he was 34 at time) BUT we are allowed to expect that Zach Stewart was a top of the rotation future major league starter and a future Cy Young award winner.

    Something seems wrong here, no??
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  10. #429
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Where would Stewart fit in the rotation if that trade was undone?
    Apparently, somewhere between Matt Maloney and Dontrelle Willis.

    Meanwhile, Scott Rolen helped give Cincinnati playoff baseball for the first time in over a decade.
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  11. #430
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by Puffy View Post
    So, no one could have expected Rolen to remain an .846 bat and a gold glover (which for the lionshare of his career he has been and he was 34 at time) BUT we are allowed to expect that Zach Stewart was a top of the rotation future major league starter and a future Cy Young award winner.

    Something seems wrong here, no??
    Over a full season, no one should have expected him to be that good of a bat because he hadn't put together a full season like that for years and he has a history of back and shoulder problems. As for the gold glove.... sure, he won it. But when I hear gold glove defense, I think about it in the terms of being the best, not the guy the managers voted for. Scott Rolen is an above average 3B and was at the time of the trade. He wasn't the best and hasn't been for a while now.

  12. #431
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Where would Stewart fit in the rotation if that trade was undone?
    That is a pretty good question. Odds are he would probably be in AAA. But, lets note that at the time of the trade, he was the top pitching prospect we had, Mike Leake wasn't yet signed and Travis Wood was the only other prospect showing anything close to signs of life above Low A. The Reds pitching depth kind of exploded on them after that trade, but at the time of it, it wasn't really close to being what it is right now.

  13. #432
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by Puffy View Post
    So, no one could have expected Rolen to remain an .846 bat and a gold glover (which for the lionshare of his career he has been and he was 34 at time) BUT we are allowed to expect that Zach Stewart was a top of the rotation future major league starter and a future Cy Young award winner.
    Something seems wrong here, no??
    You have a point that is important. And I would add that the probability that Rolen would perform along the lines of his past seasons would have to be higher than the probability of Stewart becoming a TOR ML pitcher. At the point that Stewart was traded, he was a 5 innings-and-done starter-in-training. It was clear to me that he had some significant development to do before he could be a ML starting pitcher. He still has that plus sinker, but he is still learning how to pitch. Just like Homer Bailey (they are the same age). But the difference is Homer Bailey has much better stuff and has had more high-level experience (i.e. trials and errrors) than Stewart. I think the Reds did a great job of using Stewart in a way that would feature his strengths so that he would be a highly valued prospect to other organizations. This trade is evident of that successful approach. If the Reds "loved" Stewart so much, he wouldn't have been traded.

  14. #433
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    That is a pretty good question. Odds are he would probably be in AAA. But, lets note that at the time of the trade, he was the top pitching prospect we had, Mike Leake wasn't yet signed and Travis Wood was the only other prospect showing anything close to signs of life above Low A. The Reds pitching depth kind of exploded on them after that trade, but at the time of it, it wasn't really close to being what it is right now.
    Do you feel the Reds organization is currently deep with starting pitching talent?

  15. #434
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread View Post
    Do you feel the Reds organization is currently deep with starting pitching talent?
    Organization, including the majors? Yes. The minors on their own? Not really.

  16. #435
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Over a full season, no one should have expected him to be that good of a bat because he hadn't put together a full season like that for years and he has a history of back and shoulder problems. As for the gold glove.... sure, he won it. But when I hear gold glove defense, I think about it in the terms of being the best, not the guy the managers voted for. Scott Rolen is an above average 3B and was at the time of the trade. He wasn't the best and hasn't been for a while now.
    Apparently the Reds had some scouts who had those expectations for Rolen, and they were right. They probably had expectations for Stewart: once the league sees him multiple times, they'll be able to hit his stuff, so the Reds better deal him while his stock is at an all-time high.


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