Zach Stewart's progress

[dougdirt]

Doug, you certainly weren't the only one who thought the Reds overpaid considerably for Rolen. But what I remember is you being over-the-top in lauding Stewart because he was tearing through the Reds' system at the time. There's no reason to be in denial or defensive over it. It's just that to date it's gone well for the Reds and not as well for the Jays. Roenicke has lost the handle on how to throw strikes and Encarnacion's bat has been on a steady downward plane (Baseball Prospectus 2011 said he was a "one-tool player", and this year EdE has all of zero homers).

Stewart may make the majors still, of course, but I think it's an important lesson in learning that a player is rarely as good as a hot streak might suggest. It's generally wise to trade players at the peak of their value. (Not that I thought Rolen would be as successful or as healthy as he has been a season and a half out.)

It has little to do with a hot streak and a lot to do with the fact that he has a sinker in the low 90's that can touch 95 as a starter and a plus slider. Pitches he still has. I didn't care much about losing the other two guys. Roenicke is a bullpen arm who doesn't project to close and Encarnacion, while I liked him, was easily worth giving up for Rolen. Trading Stewart straight up for Rolen would have been overpaying in my opinion given Rolen's demand of a trade to a midwest team and how the midwest teams nearly all had locked in 3B at the time except for the Reds and the White Sox, giving them almost no options to make a deal with.

[Doc. Scott]

It has little to do with a hot streak and a lot to do with the fact that he has a sinker in the low 90's that can touch 95 as a starter and a plus slider. Pitches he still has. I didn't care much about losing the other two guys. Roenicke is a bullpen arm who doesn't project to close and Encarnacion, while I liked him, was easily worth giving up for Rolen. Trading Stewart straight up for Rolen would have been overpaying in my opinion given Rolen's demand of a trade to a midwest team and how the midwest teams nearly all had locked in 3B at the time except for the Reds and the White Sox, giving them almost no options to make a deal with.

Well, I guess no one can say you don't stick to your guns. I continue to watch Stewart and I think he'll make the big leagues, but I strongly doubt he'll become a consistently successful big-league starting pitcher.

[lollipopcurve]

The Blue Jays want to keep him out of the PCL environment as long as they can. They don't like how the league has hurt some of their younger pitchers confidence in the past. That was from John Farrell in spring training this year.

That's what I figured. But if you ask me, if Stewart is as devastating a prospect as you have at times made him out to be, he'd have no trouble in the PCL.

Guy's a good arm to have in the system, but he's by no means an elite prospect at this point. And I still contend he stands just as good a chance of ending up a reliever as a starter. Time will tell.

[camisadelgolf]

You can't call something a bad trade based on perceived value unless you have inside information. We have no idea what people would've given up for Stewart, so it's just silly to make presumptions.

So far, it looks like the Reds got the better end of the deal even when you don't include the finances. But here's something I think a lot of us lose sight of: the Reds received Scott Rolen and almost four million dollars. What will that money get you?
The Rangers were ranked 8th in international spending last year at $3.57MM. In almost any year, that's enough money to sign the top international prospect in the world (plus more). If the Reds had sold Stewart for $4MM straight up, I'd say that was a decent deal, but instead, they got the money and a Gold Glove third baseman who gets a lot of credit for completely changing the culture of the clubhouse. The Reds got such a steal that it's ridiculous.

[jojo]

If the Reds had sold Stewart for $4MM straight up, I'd say that was a decent deal,

Just a quibble in response to isolating this specific point from out of the post in sum- given Stewart's prospect status at the time of the trade, as a commodity, he would've been worth around $13M based upon what other similarly ranked prospects had went on to produce in the majors. Selling him straight up for $4M would've been selling very low.

[kaldaniels]

Nothing that has happened since the trade changes my opinion of the trade. The Reds overpaid for a good player in Scott Rolen.
What should the Reds have offered that the Jays would have accepted for Rolen? Or were you opposed to trading for Rolen in the first place believing the REds could easily acquire him in the offseason?

Stewart hasn't turned out to be the guy a lot of us thought (and I don't mean us Reds fans, I mean prospect followers and evaluators). The stuff is still there from what I hear, but I haven't seen him pitch in a while so I can't say what exactly is going on.
Is it safe to say scouts were wrong (I know, it is such a dirty word) about Stewart, or at least things are pointing in that direction?

As for him in AA, the Blue Jays are doing it for a reason and it has nothing to do with his production/talent.
I can't believe that for one moment. I'm sorry you may have quoted material to completely back that up, but until I see a complete explanation (not some quick blurb) I just don't believe it. If they thought he was close to the bigs, wouldn't he be in AAA? What does that say about the Jays pitchers currently in AAA?

[kaldaniels]

Just a quibble in response to isolating this specific point from out of the post in sum- given Stewart's prospect status at the time of the trade, as a commodity, he would've been worth around $13M based upon what other similarly ranked prospects had went on to produce in the majors. Selling him straight up for $4M would've been selling very low.

Would the 13 Million be the average production that all similar prospects to Stewart produced?

[dougdirt]

I am not going to go through it all again. It has been hashed over 10 times over the last two years. My points haven't and won't change.

[jojo]

Would the 13 Million be the average production that all similar prospects to Stewart produced?

Ya...pitching prospects.

[kaldaniels]

I am not going to go through it all again. It has been hashed over 10 times over the last two years. My points haven't and won't change.

Fair enough. The AAA/AA remark is new to me though. If you get a chance, it would be great if you could elaborate on that subject.

[jojo]

Fair enough. The AAA/AA remark is new to me though. If you get a chance, it would be great if you could elaborate on that subject.

The PCL is a notorious hitter's league. Think Coors field on steroids. Vegas isn't a particularly hospitable place for developing a pitcher. I don't see a need to send a highly thought of young pitcher there per se.

[kaldaniels]

The PCL is a notorious hitter's league. Think Coors field on steroids. Vegas isn't a particularly hospitable place for developing a pitcher. I don't see a need to send a highly thought of young pitcher there per se.

Interesting. And true. I see Kyle Drabek skipped over AAA as well. Thanks.

[Benihana]

Yes BUT regardless of what happens in the PCL, shouldn't he be dominating AA in his third go-round?

Travis Wood, to give one example, put up a 1.21 ERA in his second go-round after posting a 7.09 number the year before. He was 22 at the time.

Stewart turns 25 this year and is on his third consecutive tour of AA. Just saying.

[jojo]

Yes BUT regardless of what happens in the PCL, shouldn't he be dominating AA in his third go-round?

Travis Wood, to give one example, put up a 1.21 ERA in his second go-round after posting a 7.09 number the year before. He was 22 at the time.

Stewart turns 25 this year and is on his third consecutive tour of AA. Just saying.

Who knows what Toronto has him working on? Without knowing the devil in the details, it's tough to state anything definitive and I just don't know enough about their system to speak authoritatively.

But ya, you'd rather see him blowing hitters away with the caveat that stats can be misleading in the minors.

[Benihana]

Who knows what Toronto has him working on? Without knowing the devil in the details, it's tough to state anything definitive and I just don't know enough about their system to speak authoritatively.

But ya, you'd rather see him blowing hitters away with the caveat that stats can be misleading in the minors.

Putting aside ERA, the K/9 and BB/K ratios are also pedestrian at best.

And it's not like the Blue Jays are stacked with starting pitching. No one in their rotation has an ERA under 4 and Jo-Jo Reyes and Brett Cecil (of the 6.86 ERA) have gotten several starts. If Stewart were anywhere close to major league ready, he'd be in Toronto by now.