Zach Stewart's progress

[REDREAD]

Nothing that has happened since the trade changes my opinion of the trade. The Reds overpaid for a good player in Scott Rolen.

Stewart hasn't turned out to be the guy a lot of us thought (and I don't mean us Reds fans, I mean prospect followers and evaluators). The stuff is still there from what I hear, but I haven't seen him pitch in a while so I can't say what exactly is going on.

.

Doug, perhaps Walt and his staff knew more than the prospect followers and evaluators. Or perhaps it was just a well calculated risk.. Walt and his guys obviously thought they'd get more total value out of Rolen than the guys they traded for him.

If Stewart never makes the show, will the Reds still have overpaid? I am not mocking you, but I just wonder.. With the benefit of hindsight, is there any way you are ever going to agree that this was an acceptable trade for the Reds? If there's nothing that can convince you, that's fine.. Again, I am not trying to incite anything.. I am just wondering if there's anything that could justify this trade to you.

[REDREAD]

Just a quibble in response to isolating this specific point from out of the post in sum- given Stewart's prospect status at the time of the trade, as a commodity, he would've been worth around $13M based upon what other similarly ranked prospects had went on to produce in the majors. Selling him straight up for $4M would've been selling very low.

I am wondering how you came up with the 13 million.. Is this based on $X per WAR or something like that?

I guess I have never seen a precedent where a prospect was thrown into a trade and 13 million came back. Maybe it's happened though. I just can't recall.

I guess I am of the opinion that no matter highly touted a prospect is, he's never worth as much as an established player if you are going to calculate $X per unit of production (WAR or whatever).

Although I guess I could see the arguement if a club thought Zach Stewart was comparable to drafting Strassberg or Texeria when they were drafted.
But I find it hard to believe that Zach was that highly coveted by the Blue Jays.

[kaldaniels]

One of the subplots, which has been mentioned again over the past few days, to this whole trade that I would love to have proven or debunk right now is the matter of did Rolen demand a trade to a midwest team.

There is a huge difference between asking for and demanding a trade. Rolen going to Jays management and asking for a trade to a Midwestern team hardly gives the Reds a ton of leverage. Some perhaps, but they still would have to pony up some players, otherwise Toronto could just hold on to him.

[jojo]

I am wondering how you came up with the 13 million.. Is this based on $X per WAR or something like that?

I guess I have never seen a precedent where a prospect was thrown into a trade and 13 million came back. Maybe it's happened though. I just can't recall.

I guess I am of the opinion that no matter highly touted a prospect is, he's never worth as much as an established player if you are going to calculate $X per unit of production (WAR or whatever).

Although I guess I could see the arguement if a club thought Zach Stewart was comparable to drafting Strassberg or Texeria when they were drafted.
But I find it hard to believe that Zach was that highly coveted by the Blue Jays.

It was derived from the WAR prospects produced once in the majors and the going rate for WAR on the open market at the time.

[REDREAD]

It was derived from the WAR prospects produced once in the majors and the going rate for WAR on the open market at the time.

Ok cool, thanks for responding.

[Scrap Irony]

It was derived from the WAR prospects produced once in the majors and the going rate for WAR on the open market at the time.

Is that for all pitching prospects or only those who reach the majors, jojo?

[jojo]

Is that for all pitching prospects or only those who reach the majors, jojo?

I can't remember exactly. I think it was for all pitching prospects ranked similarly by BA.

Actually having dug some of the studies back out, there were several details that I didn't remember perfectly....for instance, the values weren't based upon WAR but rather win shares.

Here's some of the first studies:

http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-11.pdf

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...osing-santana/

This is WAR-based:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives..._picks_and.php

I'm a fan of sky kalkman and he has some interesting things too:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...r-compensation

Here's his trade value calculator:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...ging-101-trade

Here was some back of the napkin calculatin' concerning the Stewart/Rolen trade looking at it from the standpoint of considerations the time of the trade:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=253

[Scrap Irony]

So, if I'm reading this correctly (and I may not be), Scott Rolen has given the Reds just under $24 million in value since being traded for.

Zach Stewart is worth around half of that right now. Add in EdE's $5 million value contribution and Rolen's and EdE's salaries (along with the cash given to Cincinnati by Toronto) the past two years-- it all adds up to about a $6 or $7 million dollar plus on the Red sheet.

Is that pretty much correct?

[jojo]

So, if I'm reading this correctly (and I may not be), Scott Rolen has given the Reds just under $24 million in value since being traded for.

Zach Stewart is worth around half of that right now. Add in EdE's $5 million value contribution and Rolen's and EdE's salaries (along with the cash given to Cincinnati by Toronto) the past two years-- it all adds up to about a $6 or $7 million dollar plus on the Red sheet.

Is that pretty much correct?

As thumbs in the air go, that's about right.

Rolen has given the Reds about 6 WAR (the reds are paying roughly $13-14M for that given his restructured contract) while EE has given the bluejays roughly 1.5 WAR while they're paying him $8M (with the 2012 buyout). Stewart has dropped off of BA's top 100 I believe.

The Reds are getting surplus value from Rolen while EE is causing the Bluejays to go into the hole.

[Orenda]

As thumbs in the air go, that's about right.

Rolen has given the Reds about 6 WAR (the reds are paying roughly $13-14M for that given his restructured contract) while EE has given the bluejays roughly 1.5 WAR while they're paying him $8M (with the 2012 buyout). Stewart has dropped off of BA's top 100 I believe.

The Reds are getting surplus value from Rolen while EE is causing the Bluejays to go into the hole.

I thought the Reds overpaid at the time; Rolen was oft injured, and represented one of a group of contracts that the Blue Jays were looking to get rid of.

They weren't going to win the AL east with Scott Rolen, Alex Rios, and Vernon Wells and they were able to become more flexible by moving them. So far, the move has worked for both sides imo.

[dougdirt]

If Stewart never makes the show, will the Reds still have overpaid? I am not mocking you, but I just wonder.. With the benefit of hindsight, is there any way you are ever going to agree that this was an acceptable trade for the Reds? If there's nothing that can convince you, that's fine.. Again, I am not trying to incite anything.. I am just wondering if there's anything that could justify this trade to you.

I am never going to believe that the Reds didn't overpay for Scott Rolen, no matter what happens in the future because what happens in the future has no bearing on the process for which the trade went through.

[PuffyPig]

Since we don't really know what the market was for Rolen (what other teams had an interest in him, if any?) it's hard to know if we overpaid.

Since the Reds have been a different team from the moment the trade was made, and Stewart's stock has fallen since then, I'm not sure it's really relevant any more, because it's a trade we'd make a thousand times over.

Don't forget we also got a bunch of money in the trade, $4M IIRC.

[westofyou]

I'm never going to believe that the Reds traded a superstar until he performs like one for longer than the life span of hamster.

[jojo]

I am never going to believe that the Reds didn't overpay for Scott Rolen, no matter what happens in the future because what happens in the future has no bearing on the process for which the trade went through.

But it wasn't an obvious overpay at the time.

[dougdirt]

But it wasn't an obvious overpay at the time.

I will disagree with you there.