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Thread: Zach Stewart's progress

  1. #181
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    With all do respect that matters zero.
    It's all that matters in my book -- you score a trade by how it works out. Not by baseless speculation about what other trades *could* have been made.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  3. #182
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Even if all three players retire tomorrow, it doesn't change the value that he gave up at the time and could have used to acquire something else.
    Completely baseless speculation about what else was possible. In addition, Stewart was likely vastly overvalued by you as a certain future Cy Young winner, when it was clear he had not even established himself as a full-time starter.

    Sit back and see how it plays out in reality.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  4. #183
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Even if all three players retire tomorrow, it doesn't change the value that he gave up at the time and could have used to acquire something else.
    What else could have been acquired? It has been speculated since the trade deadline last year that Walt gave up too much. You can look at the trade and say that in throwing in Stewart it allowed the Reds to free up some cash (more so with the Rolen restructuring) that facilitated the signing of Champan.

    You can't look at trades in a vacuum. I am still surprised about the angst towards this trade after seeing the positive impact Rolen has made. The Reds have been in a losing spiral since 2000 and have seen prospect after prospect flutter once they got to the big league level. Guys like Gruler, Pauley, Howington, etc. all were good prospects that never made it to the big leagues. Now you flip a could be for a bonified above average 3b and a competitive baseball team. Something that wasn't going to happen with Edwin in tow. And to be honest none of us know exactly what was asked, what was Walt's tipping point, and where/or if Rolen demanded to go.

    Right now I would trade the entire farm system for a world series championship. Im sick of losing teams and playing for next year. As Reds fans we have been told we are building for the future ever since 2003. Remember that team they were going to build around Jr? and then Dunn? Remember how Brandon Larson was going to be the cornerstone 3b? I want Walt to be a Major League GM, not one too concerned with minor league prospects. Use them as pawns, keep the best ones and flip the others.

  5. #184
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    I'm pretty weary of even thinking about this trade, but I've one last thought on the matter. I think we forget that trades are about individuals, not currencies. We've got so much good data about prospects anymore that we tend to think of them as fungible quantities--so that we can make a trade here with them or there with them for something like "equivalent value." But that overlooks the specific needs and priorities of the teams involved. I assume Toronto was interested in Zach Stewart--intelligently, it seems to me--not in realizing some quantity "x" regarded as appropriate return for Rolen. Walt, too, had specific objectives, involving specific individuals, and was not simply thinking, "I've got so much surplus value in Stewart, Roenicke, and EE and I need to move it somewhere--I'll try Toronto, then go somewhere else if that fails to produce equivalent or better return." These are illusions caused by our thinking of value always in the convertible terms of money whereas trades take place for specific individuals and in specific circumstances.

  6. #185
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Completely baseless speculation about what else was possible. In addition, Stewart was likely vastly overvalued by you as a certain future Cy Young winner, when it was clear he had not even established himself as a full-time starter.

    Sit back and see how it plays out in reality.
    I agree with Doug on his theory, but I think this is the part of the argument that really rings true. No one here knows what Stewart's true value was at that time. He was a 3rd rd pick in 2008 and had some successful cups of coffee at a few different minor league levels. There were questions as to if he was a starter or reliever. That was the extent of Stewart's resume.

    He was valued highly on this board and the future will tell whether the valuation was warranted. But, right now, the potential is increasing that Walt sold high on Stewart and fleeced Toronto. Not only did he get Rolen but also got millions of dollars for guy who may or may not amount to anything. EdE and Roenicke were just party favors.
    .

  7. #186
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Completely baseless speculation about what else was possible. In addition, Stewart was likely vastly overvalued by you as a certain future Cy Young winner, when it was clear he had not even established himself as a full-time starter.

    Sit back and see how it plays out in reality.
    No doubt, Dave Revering laughs somewhere and says wait....

  8. #187
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    You guys have to remember what this trade really was when it happened. Remember, Rolen had one year left on his deal, meaning Walt traded 2 prospects for immediate returns. The extension was a totally seperate thing. My objection at the time was that I didn't think Rolen would matter, that we weren't going to win anything anyway. So that's my whole guage right there. A few posts back I noted we were sitting at .500, looking like I was right. Now we're half a game out of first place and I'm looking very wrong. This is one where I hope I was wrong, but it's a young season and seeing the Reds in contention early only to slide late seems like an annual event here.

    As far as the prospects go, you guys are setting yourselves up for an "I told you so" by judging Stewart on what he's done to this point. The guy has a career 3.49 FIP, and a 6.66 in 25 innings this season. Which number do you think is really indicative and which is just a small sample?

    Now to the extension. That's a whole different ballgame. The problem with the extension is Rolen ends up blocking Frazier and Francisco. So look at the numbers there. Rolen's lights out of course, but at the same time Frazier's got an 1.034 OPS vs LH, and Francisco a .933 vs. RH. If they were one player we'd all be pretty excited about that guy manning 3B for years to come. Now we're thinking "what are we going to do with these guys?"
    Last edited by kpresidente; 05-14-2010 at 10:42 AM.

  9. #188
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    As far as the prospects go, you guys are setting yourselves up for an "I told you so" by judging Stewart on what he's done to this point. The guy has a career 3.49 FIP, and a 6.66 in 25 innings this season. Which number do you think is really indicative and which is just a small sample?
    Absolutely. It is extremely early on, but that 3.49 FIP was also made up of a few small samples. The guy's entire career is a small sample. Fair is fair.

  10. #189
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    As far as the prospects go, you guys are setting yourselves up for an "I told you so" by judging Stewart on what he's done to this point. The guy has a career 3.49 FIP, and a 6.66 in 25 innings this season. Which number do you think is really indicative?
    Time will tell. But the unbridled optimism re: Stewart's future would have to be tempered now, wouldn't it? Remember, he's back in AA this year.

    Now to the extension. That's a whole different ballgame. The problem with the extension is Rolen ends up blocking Frazier and Francisco. So look at the numbers there. Rolen's lights out of course, but at the same time Frazier's got an 1.034 OPS vs LH, and Francisco a .933 vs. RH. If they were one player we'd all be pretty excited about that guy manning 3B for years to come.
    It's my belief that Jocketty and Rolen had discussed Rolen's long-term plans (i.e., his vision of how the last chapter in his career would play out) before the trade happened. There was a report that Jocketty and Rolen were seen in a long conversation during BP, earlier in the season. I feel it's quite possible Jocketty knew he could get Rolen signed beyond 2010, if he wanted to.

    You look at the 3B situation now, and there's no way you can say Frazier/Francisco would be holding down the position in some acceptable way. Frazier's not hitting, and Francisco remains a work-in-progress on defense. You wouldn't want to be platooning highly rated prospects like those two anyway, at this point. You can't even say EdE would be gone.

    The more data we have post-trade, the more we know about the trade's success or failure.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  11. #190
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    I know I could look this up but is Stewart starting or relieving this year?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  12. #191
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    I know I could look this up but is Stewart starting or relieving this year?
    Starting in AA. At one point, he took a 12-day hiatus between starts/appearances.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  13. #192
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Fwiw, Rolen and Jocketty had the agreement that a contract extension would be worked out before the trade was made. Not only did an extension happen, it was for well below market value.

    Imagine if the Reds didn't make the trade and decided to rely on EE, Cisco, and/or Frazier as the everyday third baseman. Francisco (and his .884 fielding percentage at 3B last year) is on the DL for the next month or two. Todd Frazier has a sub-.700 OPS in AAA, so I have my doubts about him doing well at the Major League level so far in 2010.

    Meanwhile, Encarnacion hasn't been healthy, and even when he is healthy, he doesn't produce. Josh Roenicke would merely be unneeded bullpen depth. Zach Stewart would be a nice prospect to have in the system, but with all the pitching depth the Reds have, can't the team live without him?

    For anyone who still thinks it wasn't a good trade, here are some questions I have. What could the Reds get for Zach Stewart now? Would you be willing to trade Zach Stewart and his horrible AAA numbers for someone who would end up being the second- or third-best player on your 25-man roster? What if it also meant that you got to dump Edwin Encarnacion's contract?

  14. #193
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Completely baseless speculation about what else was possible. In addition, Stewart was likely vastly overvalued by you as a certain future Cy Young winner, when it was clear he had not even established himself as a full-time starter.

    Sit back and see how it plays out in reality.
    Doug never said future Cy Young in the same fashion as you guys claim he did. He did say something similar though.

  15. #194
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Time will tell. But the unbridled optimism re: Stewart's future would have to be tempered now, wouldn't it? Remember, he's back in AA this year.
    IIRC it was said that if he was a Red he'd be the best pitcher in the starting rotation, hyperbole is hard to forget when it's thrown around so carelessly.

  16. #195
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    It's all that matters in my book -- you score a trade by how it works out. Not by baseless speculation about what other trades *could* have been made.

    Seriously what happens after the trade really doesnt matter much. Trading 1 dollar for .75 cents then the other guy losing the dollar bill some how doesnt mean you made a good trade.


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