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Thread: Zach Stewart's progress

  1. #241
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Uh, huh. Forget what the numbers say. Numbers lie. Rolen's been so much better because, well, you know, I didn't like EE. He didn't try. He didn't talk to the media enough. And, you know, it's not scoring more runs than the other guy that wins games, it's how hard you try, and if you, you know, love the game and stuff, that's what really matters.

    HAHA!



    Dusty would be proud.
    Rolen is on pace to be about 1.5 to 2 WAR better than EE over 600 PAs this season and that's with Rolen having a UZR that is significantly worse than his usual defensive value.

    Those that disagree with the trade have to look at other aspects to argue against it..
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #242
    Miami Redhawks Redhook's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I can't believe anybody at this point would even question what a huge upgrade Rolen has been over EE.
    I agree, it is mindboggling. Rolen, although aging, is a first-class professional baseball player. EE is horrendous defensively and an offensive enigma. EE just doesn't have "it" when it comes to baseball. At various times, he just looks like he's on vacation out there. I'm so happy EE isn't on the Reds anymore.
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  4. #243
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Rolen is on pace to be about 1.5 to 2 WAR better than EE over 600 PAs this season and that's with Rolen having a UZR that is significantly worse than his usual defensive value.

    Those that disagree with the trade have to look at other aspects to argue against it..
    PUH-LEEEAAASE!!!

    EE has 37 PAs this season, so those numbers are irrelevant. Rolen is on pace to be about 0.5 WAR better than EE's career numbers, which is CLEARLY what I said I was using and the only realistic/fair comparison.

    So far, all I hear is what a great "professional" Rolen is. Get real, I'm the only one in this debate who's said anything substantial.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 05-16-2010 at 10:37 AM.

  5. #244
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Just because you don't agree doesn't give you license to act like a jerk. It doesn't bring anything to the conversation.

    Further, numbers don't even back up your argument. EE has been bad for the last two years.
    You'll notice the person I responded to called me "crazy" even though I made a solid argument with facts and stats in a totally non-antagonistic post. Several others have nodded their assent, or dismissed me with with irrational, emotional non-arguments. I'm sorry, but that's a little irritating. And yet, I'm the jerk?

    And I'd say 37 PAs doesn't constitute a season. EE was bad last year, in 338 PAs, but was back-and-forth on the DL the whole time. Prior to that, his numbers had been ascending. The point is to try and predict what he would have given us this season had he been playing 3B instead of Rolen. Throwing out any small-sample judgments or cherry-picked stats, EE is a little less than a 2-win player, say a 1.5 win player at worst. Rolen is currently on pace to be a 1.9 win player. Josh Roenicke over Ondrusek/Fisher probably makes up that difference. Josh Roenicke for six years almost certainly does. So I don't even need to bring up Stewart.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 05-16-2010 at 11:07 AM.

  6. #245
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Rolen and Edwins bats are pretty equal, or they were up until this year.

  7. #246
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Two straight years of sub-replacement level offensive production-- even in small sample sizes-- means he's far less likely to project to his offensive numbers. His glove, if anything, has gotten worse. Meanwhile, his price tag rose substantially.

    Encarnacion has gotten worse the more he's been subjected to major league pitching. That happens (Willie Greene says hi.)
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  8. #247
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    You'll notice the person I responded to called me "crazy" even though I made a solid argument with facts and stats in a totally non-antagonistic post. Several others have nodded their assent, or dismissed me with with irrational, emotional non-arguments. I'm sorry, but that's a little irritating. And yet, I'm the jerk?

    And I'd say 37 PAs doesn't constitute a season. EE was bad last year, in 338 PAs, but was back-and-forth on the DL the whole time. Prior to that, his numbers had been ascending. The point is to try and predict what he would have given us this season had he been playing 3B instead of Rolen. Throwing out any small-sample judgments or cherry-picked stats, EE is a little less than a 2-win player, say a 1.5 win player at worst. Rolen is currently on pace to be a 1.9 win player. Josh Roenicke over Ondrusek/Fisher probably makes up that difference. Josh Roenicke for six years almost certainly does. So I don't even need to bring up Stewart.
    If comparing true talent, throw out the "on pace" if the point is to be fair and unbiased...

    Using projected UZR for defense and projected wOBA for offense, EE qwould be projected to be a 1.7 WAR player and Rolen a 3.7 WAR player over 600 PAs worth of playing time.

    A 2 WAR difference is kind of huge.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #248
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Don't underestimate defense. EE is easily one of the worst defensive third basement in MLB while Rolen is one of the best (or at least above-average); that makes a huge difference.

  10. #249
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    and I cant get into the ORG because im "confrontational"

    Yawn

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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    It's all that matters in my book -- you score a trade by how it works out. Not by baseless speculation about what other trades *could* have been made.
    I agree with this. I just don't understand how you judge it any other way.

    What should Zach Stewart, Josh Roenicke, and Edwin Encarnacion have fetched? If Scott Rolen and $4 Million isn't enough, what specifically was fair value?

    We know what it did fetch. What it did fetch has performed better than what was given up.
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  12. #251
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    PUH-LEEEAAASE!!!

    EE has 37 PAs this season, so those numbers are irrelevant. Rolen is on pace to be about 0.5 WAR better than EE's career numbers, which is CLEARLY what I said I was using and the only realistic/fair comparison.

    So far, all I hear is what a great "professional" Rolen is. Get real, I'm the only one in this debate who's said anything substantial.
    I respectfully disagree that you're looking at their values correctly. Projection systems are about as unbiased as one can get for this particular question and they speak directly to true talent levels (that's basically what they are designed to define).

    Comparing a consensus of what projection systems have to say about their bats and projecting UZR for their leather suggests the two have significantly different values.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #252
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    You'll notice the person I responded to called me "crazy" even though I made a solid argument with facts and stats in a totally non-antagonistic post. Several others have nodded their assent, or dismissed me with with irrational, emotional non-arguments. I'm sorry, but that's a little irritating. And yet, I'm the jerk?

    And I'd say 37 PAs doesn't constitute a season. EE was bad last year, in 338 PAs, but was back-and-forth on the DL the whole time. Prior to that, his numbers had been ascending. The point is to try and predict what he would have given us this season had he been playing 3B instead of Rolen. Throwing out any small-sample judgments or cherry-picked stats, EE is a little less than a 2-win player, say a 1.5 win player at worst. Rolen is currently on pace to be a 1.9 win player. Josh Roenicke over Ondrusek/Fisher probably makes up that difference. Josh Roenicke for six years almost certainly does. So I don't even need to bring up Stewart.

    I think to an extent that you are missing the point that some of us are making. We aren't talking about emotional intangibles like club house presence and professionalism, although I wouldn't go so far as to totally discount the value of these things. What we are saying is that there are lot of aspects of playing the game well that don't show up in statistics. Base running, situational hitting, throwing to the right base, cutting off throws, not cutting off throws, when to field the ball or concede the play to another player who is in a better position to make the play. Backing up plays. These are all things that are non trivial and at which Scott Rolen is light years ahead of EE.

    As for Roenicke, the almost only thing Josh Roenicke "almost certainly does" is belong in AAA. Trying to use him to bolster your argument is a non starter. He's 27 and can't throw strikes. The minors are littered with these guys, worrying about hanging onto them is fools gold.
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  14. #253
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    I agree with this. I just don't understand how you judge it any other way.

    What should Zach Stewart, Josh Roenicke, and Edwin Encarnacion have fetched? If Scott Rolen and $4 Million isn't enough, what specifically was fair value?

    We know what it did fetch. What it did fetch has performed better than what was given up.
    Edwin pretty much had no trade value and frankly was a trade liability given his salary.

    Roenicke as a 27 yo unestablished reliever was an interesting arm but really couldn't command a lot of tangible value.

    Stewart, given his place on the BA prospect ranking last season probably had a value of $12M on average given what similarly ranked pitchers have went on to produce in the bigs but the error bars around that value (i.e. the risk associated with that return) are huge.

    Basically Rolen was free last season and looks to give the Reds like 4 WAR over last season and this one (the time before he was extended). So they're paying him $11M for 4 WAR which is actually below market rates even with the recession. The Reds don't have to pay EE $5M this season (the could've in theory not offered him a contract in 2011). So the difference is like 3 WAR at $6M given the projected difference between the two this year and the known difference after the trade last year. That's a bargain.

    But lets sum up the whole deal. Lets assume $12M for Stewart's value based upon prospect studies (ignore all risk).

    The Reds get a 3 WAR upgrade from the trade. They pay $11M to Rolen for 2010. Pay $12M in total value by sending Stewart to Toronto. They don't have to pay EE or Roenicke and save $5M this year.

    So they paid $18M for a 3 WAR upgrade but Toronto assumes all of the risk for $12M of that value (i.e. its imaginary value that may never materialize).

    The Rolen vs EE and Roenicke part of the equation is really a straightforward win for the Reds. The central question is could the Reds have gotten $12M in return value for Stewart by trading him elsewhere? That seems to be the peg that those who are against the trade hang their hat upon.

    Maybe they could've in a vacuum. But it's probably not likely that the Reds would've gotten a 3 WAR bird in the hand and I'd argue that the possible other returns aren't so large or risk free that it would make this trade an obviously poor decision.

    Meanwhile the Reds 25 man roster is 3 WAR better, it's early but the Reds are in a pennant chase and last night was probably one of the most exciting Reds games i've had the pleasure to watch in, well, too long.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #254
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    The key point is this:

    People are tired of 10 years of losing, yes? The Reds made a trade, finally, that made the ball club competitive right now. They finally look like they have a chance to compete.

    I would think the price of a prospect with a potential starter/reliever identity crisis is well worth the ability to finally compete. The Reds acquired a very good baseball player. In my book, that overrides whatever value an unproven prospect might have. If the argument is "they gave up more than they needed to," well, that's conjecture at best. We don't know what it would have taken to get the deal done so it's necessary to examine the trade for what it was, not what it could/should have been.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  16. #255
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: Zach Stewart's progress

    I checked this thread to see how Zach Stewart has been performing. I didn't realize the Royal Rumble had already begun. "Hit him in the face!"

    I was as against the trade as you could be when it happened. I have been very surprised by how well Rolen has played over the 3 months he has been here. His 3 year extension may be a little much, but it gave the FO a little payroll flex (allegedly). But seriously how well has Stewart been of late?
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