I think we'd all rather have a slow guy on base than a fast guy in the dugout.
Alonso has great ability to get on base via the walk, but I'd hardly call that his most important attribute. His most important ability is hitting the ball. Give him a chance. As to his power, in an admittedly SSS, he's hitting a HR in 20 AB's coming off a hamate injury!
This is a discussion that's been bandied about plenty of times on here. We should probably just agree to disagree on this one.
I'm not advocating getting yourself out. Yes, those good hitters are generally selective. The walk totals, however, reflect more than just selectivity. Because they're good and productive hitters, pitchers are more careful with them. To some extent, the walks are a byproduct of their hitting ability.
So, as applied to Alonso: If his walks are coming because pitchers are pitching around him, that's fine. In that case, when he gets to the majors he probably won't be pitched around to such an extent, will in turn generate more run-producing hits, and will become a more valuable hitter in the middle of the lineup. On the other hand, if he's walking a lot because that's his M.O., then he would be more useful hitting in a position where others can drive him in. That's where the lack of speed comes in.
Look, I like the guy. He's a professional hitter. I'm just not as head-over-heels for him as others seem to be, because I don't quite see his niche in a big-league lineup. That said, there's a good chance that he'll show more power as he gets further away from his hamate injury. If he can progress to where he's delivering close to 300 total bases in a season, I'll be standing by with a pencil to write him smack-dab into the middle of the order.
Based on what I've seen of him, I'd say his walks are based on his very early pitch recognition, the same quality that will make him an excellent hitter.
I don't think he goes up there looking to walk. But I think he is more willing to wait for his pitch than almost everyone else (especially at the minor league level). The problem is you are looking for him to fill a spot specific lineup spot. Just look at his skillset on its own. He is a guy who projects to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter. That is a guy you can hit anywhere in the lineup you want.
If he bats .300 and slugs .500, we'll be pretty much in agreement. His minor-league numbers aren't quite there yet, but if he develops the way you believe he will, I won't have a problem with him in the middle of the order. I'd prefer that he lop off about 40 walks and apply the .300/.500 to those 40 at-bats (producing another 12 hits and 20 total bases); but at that point, I won't quibble.
Mace, you can call it what you want, but a slow, high OBP power hitter is in the Dunn mold.
And I'd take a Dunn season from Alonso any time.
I don't have problem one with the Alonso pick. I doubt he ever plays any significant time as a Red, but that doesn't mean he has no value. I just think he's lower on the depth chart, and the guys above him have skillsets the Reds are looking for more. JF has more power, Heisey is speed and defense. Frazier is probably a better defender and probably his equal as a hitter. And though I think Dorn is now a 1B for good, His splits are better. against RH's, Dorn might be the Reds best minor league hitter.
But Alonso can be part of a package as long as he hits, and if the return is a player that helps propel the Reds to the playoffs, I'm ok with it.
Suck it up cupcake.
to this line:Code:PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP 600 511 150 40 0 25 80 90 .294 .392 .519 .910 .313
That is severely cutting into his overall production and costing the team almost a full win with that drop off in production.Code:PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP 600 551 162 44 0 25 40 90 .294 .345 .510 .855 .311
If production were tied wholly to OPS, yes, it would be a drop in production. But if you're talking about a cleanup hitter--and that's what I'm doing--the key stat is total bases. The more total bases, the more the runners in front of him can complete the circuit.
Certainly, there are tradeoffs. Ultimately, the difference will depend on the people around him. But for my money, I'll happily swap walks for total bases in the cleanup spot.
Like I said at the outset, that's where we'll have to agree to disagree. I can't paint with that broad a brush.