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Thread: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

  1. #91
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    That, coupled with the fact that his best ability is getting on base (walk-driven). It's not an ideal combination.
    Getting on base is always ideal. Always.

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  3. #92
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    I think we'd all rather have a slow guy on base than a fast guy in the dugout.

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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    Alonso has great ability to get on base via the walk, but I'd hardly call that his most important attribute. His most important ability is hitting the ball. Give him a chance. As to his power, in an admittedly SSS, he's hitting a HR in 20 AB's coming off a hamate injury!

  5. #94
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Getting on base is always ideal. Always.
    See, that's the fundamental thing that--bar the door!--I disagree with. I simply do not believe that, if you are a power hitter batting fourth, entrusted to drive in runs, a base on balls is the ideal outcome with, say, two outs and two on. It passes on the RBI responsibility to another hitter who is less capable of getting home the run. If getting on base were always ideal, why would there ever be an intentional walk?

    This is a discussion that's been bandied about plenty of times on here. We should probably just agree to disagree on this one.

  6. #95
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    See, that's the fundamental thing that--bar the door!--I disagree with. I simply do not believe that, if you are a power hitter batting fourth, entrusted to drive in runs, a base on balls is the ideal outcome with, say, two outs and two on. It passes on the RBI responsibility to another hitter who is less capable of getting home the run. If getting on base were always ideal, why would there ever be an intentional walk?

    This is a discussion that's been bandied about plenty of times on here. We should probably just agree to disagree on this one.
    I just went back to 2000 and looked at RBI seasons of 120 or more. There were 95 seasons in there. Of those 95 players, 53 of them walked at least 80 times in a season. Most high RBI guys are also high walk guys. There is a reason for it. Most high walk guys are very good hitters and good hitters are going to walk a lot because they know what their strikezone is. They would rather pass the RBI chance on to someone else than hit a weak groundball to 2B by expanding the zone.

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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    I'm not advocating getting yourself out. Yes, those good hitters are generally selective. The walk totals, however, reflect more than just selectivity. Because they're good and productive hitters, pitchers are more careful with them. To some extent, the walks are a byproduct of their hitting ability.

    So, as applied to Alonso: If his walks are coming because pitchers are pitching around him, that's fine. In that case, when he gets to the majors he probably won't be pitched around to such an extent, will in turn generate more run-producing hits, and will become a more valuable hitter in the middle of the lineup. On the other hand, if he's walking a lot because that's his M.O., then he would be more useful hitting in a position where others can drive him in. That's where the lack of speed comes in.

    Look, I like the guy. He's a professional hitter. I'm just not as head-over-heels for him as others seem to be, because I don't quite see his niche in a big-league lineup. That said, there's a good chance that he'll show more power as he gets further away from his hamate injury. If he can progress to where he's delivering close to 300 total bases in a season, I'll be standing by with a pencil to write him smack-dab into the middle of the order.

  8. #97
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    Based on what I've seen of him, I'd say his walks are based on his very early pitch recognition, the same quality that will make him an excellent hitter.

  9. #98
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    I don't think he goes up there looking to walk. But I think he is more willing to wait for his pitch than almost everyone else (especially at the minor league level). The problem is you are looking for him to fill a spot specific lineup spot. Just look at his skillset on its own. He is a guy who projects to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter. That is a guy you can hit anywhere in the lineup you want.

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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    If he bats .300 and slugs .500, we'll be pretty much in agreement. His minor-league numbers aren't quite there yet, but if he develops the way you believe he will, I won't have a problem with him in the middle of the order. I'd prefer that he lop off about 40 walks and apply the .300/.500 to those 40 at-bats (producing another 12 hits and 20 total bases); but at that point, I won't quibble.

  11. #100
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    Mace, you can call it what you want, but a slow, high OBP power hitter is in the Dunn mold.

    And I'd take a Dunn season from Alonso any time.

    I don't have problem one with the Alonso pick. I doubt he ever plays any significant time as a Red, but that doesn't mean he has no value. I just think he's lower on the depth chart, and the guys above him have skillsets the Reds are looking for more. JF has more power, Heisey is speed and defense. Frazier is probably a better defender and probably his equal as a hitter. And though I think Dorn is now a 1B for good, His splits are better. against RH's, Dorn might be the Reds best minor league hitter.

    But Alonso can be part of a package as long as he hits, and if the return is a player that helps propel the Reds to the playoffs, I'm ok with it.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #101
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    If he bats .300 and slugs .500, we'll be pretty much in agreement. His minor-league numbers aren't quite there yet, but if he develops the way you believe he will, I won't have a problem with him in the middle of the order. I'd prefer that he lop off about 40 walks and apply the .300/.500 to those 40 at-bats (producing another 12 hits and 20 total bases); but at that point, I won't quibble.
    The problem is, if you trade 40 walks for 12 hits, you take a guy with this line:
    Code:
    PA  	AB  	H  	2B  	3B  	HR  	BB  	SO  	BA  	OBP  	SLG  	OPS  	BABIP
    600	511	150	40	0	25	80	90	.294	.392	.519	.910	.313
    to this line:
    Code:
    PA  	AB  	H  	2B  	3B  	HR  	BB  	SO  	BA  	OBP  	SLG  	OPS  	BABIP
    600	551	162	44	0	25	40	90	.294	.345	.510	.855	.311
    That is severely cutting into his overall production and costing the team almost a full win with that drop off in production.

  13. #102
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The problem is, if you trade 40 walks for 12 hits, you take a guy with this line:
    Code:
    PA  	AB  	H  	2B  	3B  	HR  	BB  	SO  	BA  	OBP  	SLG  	OPS  	BABIP
    600	511	150	40	0	25	80	90	.294	.392	.519	.910	.313
    to this line:
    Code:
    PA  	AB  	H  	2B  	3B  	HR  	BB  	SO  	BA  	OBP  	SLG  	OPS  	BABIP
    600	551	162	44	0	25	40	90	.294	.345	.510	.855	.311
    That is severely cutting into his overall production and costing the team almost a full win with that drop off in production.
    Those numbers aren't quite right, Doug. The premise was they he maintains the same slugging percentage, so, for starters, the slg for Player 1 would not be 9 points higher than Player 2. That would also close the gap a bit in OPS. Also, you've kept the home run total the same. There would be a couple extra for Player 2 in those 40 at-bats.

    If production were tied wholly to OPS, yes, it would be a drop in production. But if you're talking about a cleanup hitter--and that's what I'm doing--the key stat is total bases. The more total bases, the more the runners in front of him can complete the circuit.

    Certainly, there are tradeoffs. Ultimately, the difference will depend on the people around him. But for my money, I'll happily swap walks for total bases in the cleanup spot.

  14. #103
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Those numbers aren't quite right, Doug. The premise was they he maintains the same slugging percentage, so, for starters, the slg for Player 1 would not be 9 points higher than Player 2. That would also close the gap a bit in OPS. Also, you've kept the home run total the same. There would be a couple extra for Player 2 in those 40 at-bats.

    If production were tied wholly to OPS, yes, it would be a drop in production. But if you're talking about a cleanup hitter--and that's what I'm doing--the key stat is total bases. The more total bases, the more the runners in front of him can complete the circuit.

    Certainly, there are tradeoffs. Ultimately, the difference will depend on the people around him. But for my money, I'll happily swap walks for total bases in the cleanup spot.
    Well just so you know, for your money, you want the far inferior player hitting clean up for you. Your team is going to score fewer runs because of it. The key stat for all positions is OBP and you are cutting a guys off by 50 points so he can get a few extra singles/doubles instead of 40 extra bases via walks.

  15. #104
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    Like I said at the outset, that's where we'll have to agree to disagree. I can't paint with that broad a brush.

  16. #105
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    Re: Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Like I said at the outset, that's where we'll have to agree to disagree. I can't paint with that broad a brush.
    You can't accept that a guy with the same slugging and 50 points better OBP isn't better than the guy with the same slugging and 50 fewer points of OBP?


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