Is Mike Leake the ace of the rotation?

[Sea Ray]

Leake is proud of the fact that he's one of a handful of players who never played a game in the minors. He'd get mighty ticked if he was sent out for non performance reasons. The delay in free agency status wouldn't sit well either. I don't think that is the right approach for this guy

[Chip R]

He'd get mighty ticked if he was sent out for non performance reasons.

The MLBPA might have something to say about that as well. Sending a guy down for non-performance reasons is a good way to pick a fight with them. And their track record is pretty good. Even if he does go down, those pitches he throws for LOU count too.

[Caveat Emperor]

It's going to be real difficult to shut down Leake for any length of time. Even skipping him in the rotation is going to be tough since he pitches so well.

It'll be difficult if the games are meaning something -- the concern I have is that "meaning something" might be different to Dusty (who is managing for a contract in 2011) than it is to the organization.

Walt needs to be the one who makes this call, and he needs to be thinking about it now.

[TRF]

color me astounded he's been pitching this well. I hope he keeps it up, but will be interested in his first start against a team he's faced once this year. I don't know what team that will be, but it will be very telling on his ability to adjust in game.

[membengal]

It will be this weekend against the Cubs.

[HeatherC1212]

Didn't the Rays move David Price to the bullpen a few years ago (or keep him in the bullpen that first year) in order to limit his innings? Why can't the Reds do something like that with Mike Leake later this season? He would still be pitching but not as often and the inning count could be better maintained especially when the rosters expand in September. Just a thought and add me to the growing list of people very impressed with how Mike has done in his starts so far this year.

*apologies if this has all ready been discussed here (haven't gotten caught up on the board yet)*

[Chip R]

It'll be difficult if the games are meaning something -- the concern I have is that "meaning something" might be different to Dusty (who is managing for a contract in 2011) than it is to the organization.

Walt needs to be the one who makes this call, and he needs to be thinking about it now.

Being around .500 means the Reds will still be in contention - at least for a wild card. Even if they are several games below .500, they are going to want to do their darndest to get back there. That means putting one of your best pitchers out there every 5 days.

We may be worried about nothing though. The l;ast 4 years, Bronson has averaged 34 starts for the Reds. That's including the complete games and the 1-3 inning blowouts. I don't think Leake is going to get anywhere close to 34 starts but for argument's sake let's say he does. At ~7 innings per game that's 238 IP. That's obviously too much. Now let's go the other way. Let's say he starts 20 games. At ~7 IP per game that's 140 IP. I think that's acceptable. Now let's add 3 more starts on to that. That's another 21 innings which would bring his total up to 161 IP. I really don't think that's an extreme total for someone of his age.

The time when we have to worry is if everything comes together and the Reds are in it till the end, that they jury-rig the rotation so Leake starts on 3 days rest.

[medford]

I think I heard yesterday on Lance's show that Leake pitched 141.2 innings last year at ASU. Add in the AFL time, and I'll guess (someone give me/us the right number of innings in the AFL if you've got them he pitched about 15-20 innings in the AFL, giving him a total of 155-160 innings. Allow for a 25-30 inning bump this year (do you need to take away ST since I assume they have little to no ST in college?) and he could throw approx. 180-185 innings. If you take away some ST time (say the 15 innings from AFL) that would mean he could comfortable handle 165-170 innings this season w/o concern about a serious workload increase.

I'm going to assume he'll average about 6 and half innings per start, but we'll bump it up to 7 for simplicity and he could make about 24 starts. He's made 5 to date and there are 136 games left in the season, or 27 times thru the rotation. That means he'd have to skip approx 8 starts if he averages 7 innings in order to not seriously increase his workload. Keep him to about 6 innings per start, that means he could make approx 28 starts this season and skip 4 starts in the rotation.

To me, the solution would be to take as you go along. If there is an off day, or a serious of them, push back his start to the 5th day, no matter when he's due to start. Coming off of college last year, I would think he'd be more apt to handle not pitching for a week than other guys that have grown used to a 5 day schedule. If you find yourself way out of contention in September, shut him down for the year. If you're in contention, throw caution to the wind and go for a playoff birth this year and deal w/ the potential injuries next year if they pop up. A playoff birth would likely go a long way to adding to the season ticket base, which would allow Bob to increase the payroll in measure.

[TheNext44]

The MLBPA might have something to say about that as well. Sending a guy down for non-performance reasons is a good way to pick a fight with them. And their track record is pretty good. Even if he does go down, those pitches he throws for LOU count too.

I can guarantee that there will be a time this season where sending Leake down to AAA can be explained as being for performance reasons, whether that is the real reason or not. One bad start is all it takes.

And if he gets sent down to AAA, put him in the pen there. That will limit his pitches.

Also, this could be done at anytime in the next 4 years and still delay his free agency.

One other option is to not worry about it at all. If he keeps pitching this way, lock him up in the next few years. He'll be worth it.

[Chip R]

I can guarantee that there will be a time this season where sending Leake down to AAA can be explained as being for performance reasons, whether that is the real reason or not. One bad start is all it takes.

Sure, they could explain it like that but no one in their right mind's going to buy that. If it goes to an arbitrator, the MLBPA is going to ask the Reds why they didn' send Cueto or Volquez down when they had one bad start. All that's going happen is the Reds will lose, Leake will still be in the majors and he's going to be angry with the Reds for trying to pull that crap. He'll remember that come arbitration and free agency time. And just try signing him to a long term deal after doing that. It's also going to make the Reds look bad to other players and to their own. No good will come of that, I promise you.

[Homer Bailey]

If the Reds option Leake to the Minors, and not have him pitch there for just two weeks, they will delay his free agency clock by a year, and keep his innings down. That's one way they could do what you're suggesting, which is an idea that I like.

Not his free agency clock, but arbitration clock. At the current pace, he would be eligible for arbitration after the end of next season, but still be under Reds control for the following 4 years.

[Benihana]

Scouting rumblings from Jayson Stark's column today:

• On Mike Leake: "He really commands the fastball, and he's got a very late, live fastball. He's got that Greg Maddux drift-back pitch that he throws in to left-handers and breaks back, and that he'll run in on right-handers. And he doesn't have any fear. He's going to pitch in the big leagues for a long time. He might not ever throw hard enough to be great. But every team in baseball would like to have that guy in their rotation."

[bucksfan2]

• On Mike Leake: "He really commands the fastball, and he's got a very late, live fastball. He's got that Greg Maddux drift-back pitch that he throws in to left-handers and breaks back, and that he'll run in on right-handers. And he doesn't have any fear. He's going to pitch in the big leagues for a long time. He might not ever throw hard enough to be great. But every team in baseball would like to have that guy in their rotation."

Its nice to recognize Leake but I don't think this blurb is accurate. I have been very impressed with not only Leake the pitcher but also his velocity. He can dial it up to 92-94 when he needs to. I just see Leake as a very smart pitcher. He would rather throw 2 pitches, get a hitter off balance, and get a weak out. He has shown the ability to get a strike out in a jam and has looked pretty good in doing so. I just think he would much rather limit his pitches and go deeper into the game than be a flame thrower but only pitch 6 innings.

[OnBaseMachine]

Leake’s sinker is getting strikes, if few whiffs. His slider and changeup have been excellent, getting batters to swing and miss at rates well above the major league average. Those hitters are having a hard time laying off the slider and change: they have swung at the slider 54.1 percent (47.7% MLB average) and the changeup 60 percent (48.1% MLB average). The less-utilized curve and cutter aren’t hitting the mark or fooling opponents.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...-leake-update/

[RedsManRick]

Ace or not, Leake sure is a joy to watch. I've compared him Maddux and Tim Hudson, but I think maybe Mark Buerhle is the better comp. Works extremely fast, gets grounders, and doesn't walk people. That's been Buehrle's formula and it's worked extremely well for him.