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Thread: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

  1. #1
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    The team is playing very poorly. Some of us would like to DFA about half the team. I have been thinking about ways Walt/Dusty could improve things. Sadly, there are not a lot of moves we can make right now.

    1. the pen outside of Masset & Ondrusek has been fine. Ondrusek has already been replaced by Fisher. the only question here is what to do with Nick. obviously he doesn't pitch in high leverage situations until he gets straightened out. if he has options left he could go to AAA. the only guy i see on the AAA roster who might take his place is LeCure. he has been a starter in the minors but is behind a lot of guys talentwise in the organization so i expect him to be a reliever in the bigs (if he has a big league career at all).

    2. Maloney pitched ok at the end of 2009 & ok this spring. he had 3 great starts in AAA. however, he just went on the dl for a blister problem. Wood's issue this spring was walks. he has 7 in 18 IP in AAA. it doesn't seem like he is ready. We all want Chapman here as soon as he is ready but from what i have read he could use more time in AAA. that means our options are to stick with the five starters we have or maybe move Owings back to the rotation. i am against this move as he wasn't that great there in 2009 & he seems to be a decent pitcher out of the pen. so overall there is no great solution to the biggest issue the team has (starting pitching). we have to go with what we have until Maloney gets healthy and/or Wood & Chapman are ready. at that point if certain guys are still pitching terribly heads will roll.

    3. two painfully obvious position moves are to give Hanigan & Janish more playing time. Dusty doesn't have to annoint them the starters full time but these two guys are much better defensively than Hernandez/Cabrera and for now are also outhitting them.

    the Reds could give Nix some PT vs right handed starters. i doubt that this move is going to make or break the season.

    down on the farm Frazier, Heisey, Francisco look more like AA players than big league players. Alonso is OPSing ~.830 in AA and also learning a new position. so much for our top prospects.

    the only guys playing well in AAA are Valaika (OPS 913) & Dorn (OPS 908).
    Valaika had such a terrible 2009 I would think at least a half season of AAA is in order before any thought of a big league promotion. Dorn OPSed .793 in AAA last year. In his case also I would think half a year of AAA would be in order before considering a callup. bottom line: no immediate help on the farm.

    so we are playing terrible & have the following realistic moves we can make:
    1. more playing time to Janish & Hanigan
    2. move Masset out of the 8th inning.
    3. develop lots & lots of patience & reevaluate at the mid point of the season
    .

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  3. #2
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    Sometimes the plans, directions, and approaches have to be modified along with the philosophies and theories to move through or around the obstacles and barriers that are goal blocking.

    They'll have to find the answers.

  4. #3
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    First and foremost, you have to stop batting the center fielder lead off. I don't care who is starting there, whether its Stubbs or Dickerson, neither guy should bat higher than 7th or 8th right now. Put Scott Rolen directly in front of, or directly behind Joey Votto. Someone needs to be on base for the other guy. Get Janish in the game more. He most certainly won't keep hitting like he has, but the defensive difference between him and Cabrera is enough to overcome the offense and I feel pretty confident in that. Cabrera has lost two or three steps from what he once was and what he once was was a step worse than what Janish is. That is going to help the pitchers some. Maybe they then become a little more pitch efficient because grounders actually stop on the infield rather than go to Stubbs/Dickerson in CF. I would stick tough with the bullpen and rotation for now.

  5. #4
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    You forgot to mention that Phillips should be hitting somewhere between where you suggested Dickerson/Cabrera hit, and where the pitcher hits... Unless the pitcher is Leake. Then you hit him behind the pitcher.
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  6. #5
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    Show patience.

    The only thing that will make this team legitimately better is for everyone (excluding a couple) to stop playing below their floors. Everyone will gradually trend back to their norm. The youth will take the majority of the year until they are up and Harang/Arroyo need to work with Price (or maybe call Pole) and fix whatever is wrong with them. Bruce has been mashing everything but continues to be one of the most unlucky hitters in the league. Janish over Cabrera just for the sake of the pitchers (we might see a pitcher throw his 100th pitch in the 7th or 8th instead of the 4th and 5th).

    Big time trades? Not likely. Even if we had the pieces to make a move for almost anyone of note, it would not be enough. Anyone the Reds trade for right now not named Felix, Albert, or Hanley will only be a marginal upgrade and add next to nothing for the seasons win/loss total.

    My vote- Wait until the beginning of June and reevaluate. Decide what to do with Arroyo/Harang, decide if they are Buyers or Sellers, and act accordingly. Bring up youth if they are sellers trade youth if they are buyers.

    My .02
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  7. #6
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    Janish or Cabrera? Gee, what a choice! LOL

    Cabrera is "sore", so I have no problem short-term with putting Janish out there. Yes, Paul is better defensively, but does anyone think that is going to give THIS pitching staff a better edge?

    This staff's DIP% is 78 (2nd worst in the NL). This is the same staff that has been basically getting shelled for 18 games, has a -30 differential, given up 105 ERs (2nd worst in the NL), issued 72 BBs and 23 HRs (3rd worst), and where the opposition has a .367 OB%, slugging .438, and OPSing at .806.

    Janish may be better defensively at SS, but lets not forget his career offensive numbers (136 games, 349 ABs).... .215 BA .299 OB% .315 SLG% .614 OPS

    I'm not the biggest fan of Cabrera, but his career numbers are..... .275 BA .321 OB% .398 SLG% .719 OPS

    His numbers this year are slightly below that, but it is still quite early. But he is leading this team, so far, in RBIs, and is 2nd in hits with 16.

    They aren't going to bench a Cabrera, whom they just signed, and are paying 4M. That makes the GM look like he made a bad decision. Ain't gonna happen.

    It's the same logic as to why they will keep running Harang out there. Dusty even alluded to that after his last start - "we're paying this guy 12M to be a starter"

    We've played 18 games and are still in April, the first month of the season. We're 7-11 and only 3.5 games out of 1st place. This management, at this early stage of the season, is not going to do anything drastic.

    They really don't have anything in the system to get drastic with. And teams don't make trades in April.

    So sit back and fasten your seatbelt for the next couple of months.
    Last edited by GAC; 04-25-2010 at 06:23 AM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  8. #7
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    I think the rotation needs to get out of its funk. While I'm generally concerned about the offense and think it will be the on-going problem, I think I'd go with the best defensive team possible for a while and see if they can help the rotation to a few good starts. Once those guys regain a little confidence, I think they'll bounce back and getting the rotation on track has to be priority number 1 at this point. The line-up would be awful, but

    Dickerson LF
    Rolen 3B
    Votto 1B
    Bruce RF
    Phillips 2B
    Hanigan C
    Stubbs CF
    Janish SS

    Hernandez, Cairo, Cabrera, Gomes and Nix may be the veteran presence bench of Dusty's dreams.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #8
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    Defense doesn't get their butts picked off base or make base running blunders.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  10. #9
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Defense doesn't get their butts picked off base or make base running blunders.
    Nope, but the position players will be less than ideal all season no matter who he runs out there, The Rotation can be better though and I'd like to see them get straightened out and start pitching well. Harang and Arroyo for the sake of the return at the deadline and Cueto, Bailey and Leake for the sake of the future. Hernandez vs. Hanigan or Cabrera vs. Janish really won't matter much from the position player side. With the exception of Hanigan being a 50 to 60 start per year second catcher, I really don't see those guys having much of a role in 2011.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #10
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Janish may be better defensively at SS, but lets not forget his career offensive numbers (136 games, 349 ABs).... .215 BA .299 OB% .315 SLG% .614 OPS

    I'm not the biggest fan of Cabrera, but his career numbers are..... .275 BA .321 OB% .398 SLG% .719 OPS
    The career numbers paint a very vivid picture, but career numbers of a 35 year old SS on the way out mean very little. Just as Janish's numbers don't show exactly where he is in progression. PJ hit 21 2B is just under 300 PA last year, meaning he is still coming into his own at 27 years old.

    I think taking Janish over Cabrera only slightly improves the team overall, but every fraction of an improvement over 162 adds up.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  12. #11
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    Baring some radical DFA's and a major infusion of cash, neither of which are likely or practical, nothing.

    This is the team they built and the team they'll ride for the foreseeable future.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  13. #12
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    Just as Janish's numbers don't show exactly where he is in progression. PJ hit 21 2B is just under 300 PA last year, meaning he is still coming into his own at 27 years old.
    Players who are going to show something are going to start showing it before they turn 27 years old.

    And you look at Janish's offensive numbers at Chattanooga and Louisville (2007, 2008), and they aren't anything to crow about.
    Last edited by GAC; 04-25-2010 at 08:02 AM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  14. #13
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    Janish would not be the first to develop into an everyday major league player that was 27 or older. Janish K% dropped, BB% climbed, ISO went up, and his BABIP was only at .247 despite his 18.8% LD% (18.6 for OCAB, 13.0 for Bruce)

    Janish's glove is far superior to Cabrera at this stage of their careers and PJ actually has upside (plus a 72.0 UZR/150 )
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  15. #14
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Baring some radical DFA's and a major infusion of cash, neither of which are likely or practical, nothing.

    This is the team they built and the team they'll ride for the foreseeable future.
    Exactly. It's not like this team was built to go to the World Series this year. No need to over react and do something short term, especially when this years team really is just another step in a long term plan to rebuild ans strenghen the organization.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  16. #15
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: realistically what can Walt/Dusty do right now

    What I said in the other thread. It's realistic.


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