Drew Stubbs: If this keeps up, what to do?

[Blitz Dorsey]

What part of Stubbs' minor league numbers makes anyone believe that he will turn things around at the Major League level? Mediocre minor league hitters don't magically become decent Major League hitters. It's not a surprise in the least to me that Stubbs is struggling big-time at the plate this year. I would have been shocked if he had a good offensive year.

I just hope one day he is able to become an "average" Major League hitter. (Notice I didn't even say "good." I'll just take "average.") If he can get to average, then he might be an asset due to his defense and speed.

I mean, even when he played low-A ball at Dayton he was a mediocre hitter at best. Why would anyone think that Stubbs would have a chance at being a good hitter at the highest level of baseball on the planet?

[RedsManRick]

What part of Stubbs' minor league numbers makes anyone believe that he will turn things around at the Major League level? Mediocre minor league hitters don't magically become decent Major League hitters. It's not a surprise in the least to me that Stubbs is struggling big-time at the plate this year. I would have been shocked if he had a good offensive year.

I just hope one day he is able to become an "average" Major League hitter. (Notice I didn't even say "good." I'll just take "average.") If he can get to average, then he might be an asset due to his defense and speed.

I mean, even when he played low-A ball at Dayton he was a mediocre hitter at best. Why would anyone think that Stubbs would have a chance at being a good hitter at the highest level of baseball on the planet?

He put up a collective .269/.364/.401 line; not stellar, but not exactly bad. He put up a .270, .278, and .268 average in A+, AA, and AAA respectively. He never put up a sub .350 OBP. He showed good plate discipline, with walk rates higher than 10% and scouts always believed that he had good power potential - as he displayed in college. He stole boatloads of bases at a high rate. While his BABIP was high, his speed suggests he could maintain a higher than average BABIP, such as the .325 he put up in 2009.

Other than a high strikeout rate, what part of Stubbs' minor league numbers makes anyone believe that he won't turn things around at the Major League level?

Calling him a "mediocre" minor league hitter is way too blunt of an instrument. A guy who puts up a .364 OBP, a .130 ISO and steals bases by the dozen is not "mediocre". No, he's not Jason Heyward or Justin Smoak. But that's not mediocre.

The concern always has been and continues to be his ability to make regular good contact. Last year in the majors he had a 21.1 LD%. This year, to date, he's put up a laughable 5.7 LD% along with a ridiculous 2.30 GB:FB ratio. His contact rate has dropped big time, even though his plate discipline hasn't changed. The drop is coming primarily from swings and misses in the zone. Big surprise, huh?

As an amateur scout, I see a guy who has trouble with sliders and changeups and as a result is either missing the ball completely or topping it with regularity. Pitchers now know this and are exploiting it. The guy has less than half of a season worth of PA in the majors and you're asking why we should think he'll turn it around. Again, I ask, why should we think that he won't? He hasn't had time to adjust back.

Obviously he has some work to do, but we're getting way ahead of ourselves. Players go through this all of the time. Ask Mike Schmidt and his .196/.324/.373 first full season or Phillips and his .208/.242/.311 first full seasons. Yes, those guys were younger than Stubbs is. But the guy is just 25 and in his 5th professional season. He significantly retooled his swing a few years ago as he advanced through a level a year in the minors and he's not yet had a full year in the majors. Let's give him a chance to make the most difficult adjustment before calling his ability to do so in to question.

I'm not sure what your definition of "good" is, but if Stubbs can hit .265/.350./400, with his defense and speed, he'd be a league average CF or better. And if he does add the power scouts think he can and pushes that ISO up 40-50 points, you have a Mike Cameron clone. No, I don't think he's going to be Grady Sizemore, but I don't see why it's unreasonable to think that he's got a decent shot to be a "good" major leaguer.

[TRF]

RMR

To me it was simple, he had contact issues, K rate issues and no power. and once a league adjusted to him, it OWNED him. Only in Low A did that not happen, but then they experimented with him lower in the order in RBI slots. His approach may have been different there. He was looking for something to drive. K rates plummeted, power went up. In fact, it was like that his entire minor league career. He's completely miscast as a leadoff hitter because he clearly doesn't understand how to maximize his abilities while leading off. 3rd, 5th or 7th gives him opportunities to drive runners in. 1st, not so much.

In the minors pitchers figured this out. He saw a bunch of pitches, walked a fair amount, but because pitchers knew he couldn't hurt him with the bat, they could pitch anywhere with him to get him to chase. If he was behind 0-2 or 1-2 he was no threat to hit one out. He was a 2 outcome player: BB or K minus the power.

Bat him lower in the order. I think 6th would be good. Tell him to be aggressive and hit the ball hard, and let his physical tools take over. And for the shocker from me, if they do this, and he embraces it, he could have a better year than Jay Bruce.

[fearofpopvol1]

He absolutely should be batting lower in the order. I think 6 would be a good spot too.

[Falls City Beer]

This guy makes Janish look like Larkin by comparison.

(Stubbs is no kid, by the way: age 26 season right here).

[TRF]

This guy makes Janish look like Larkin by comparison.

(Stubbs is no kid, by the way: age 26 season right here).

I've led the anti-stubbs parade since he was picked. And even I think he isn't this bad. Lower in the order is perfect for him 6th or 7th I wouldn't mind.

[Sea Ray]

I've led the anti-stubbs parade since he was picked. And even I think he isn't this bad. Lower in the order is perfect for him 6th or 7th I wouldn't mind.

I'm thinking he's so lost he needs to go to AAA and regain some confidence. I'm all for sending him to AAA and let's see how Heisey does in Cincinnati

[RedsManRick]

This guy makes Janish look like Larkin by comparison.

(Stubbs is no kid, by the way: age 26 season right here).

I agree he's no kid, but this is his age 25 season. He doesn't turn 26 until Oct.

[Blitz Dorsey]

He put up a collective .269/.364/.401 line; not stellar, but not exactly bad. He put up a .270, .278, and .268 average in A+, AA, and AAA respectively. He never put up a sub .350 OBP. He showed good plate discipline, with walk rates higher than 10% and scouts always believed that he had good power potential - as he displayed in college. He stole boatloads of bases at a high rate. While his BABIP was high, his speed suggests he could maintain a higher than average BABIP, such as the .325 he put up in 2009.

Other than a high strikeout rate, what part of Stubbs' minor league numbers makes anyone believe that he won't turn things around at the Major League level?

Calling him a "mediocre" minor league hitter is way too blunt of an instrument. A guy who puts up a .364 OBP, a .130 ISO and steals bases by the dozen is not "mediocre". No, he's not Jason Heyward or Justin Smoak. But that's not mediocre.

The concern always has been and continues to be his ability to make regular good contact. Last year in the majors he had a 21.1 LD%. This year, to date, he's put up a laughable 5.7 LD% along with a ridiculous 2.30 GB:FB ratio. His contact rate has dropped big time, even though his plate discipline hasn't changed. The drop is coming primarily from swings and misses in the zone. Big surprise, huh?

As an amateur scout, I see a guy who has trouble with sliders and changeups and as a result is either missing the ball completely or topping it with regularity. Pitchers now know this and are exploiting it. The guy has less than half of a season worth of PA in the majors and you're asking why we should think he'll turn it around. Again, I ask, why should we think that he won't? He hasn't had time to adjust back.

Obviously he has some work to do, but we're getting way ahead of ourselves. Players go through this all of the time. Ask Mike Schmidt and his .196/.324/.373 first full season or Phillips and his .208/.242/.311 first full seasons. Yes, those guys were younger than Stubbs is. But the guy is just 25 and in his 5th professional season. He significantly retooled his swing a few years ago as he advanced through a level a year in the minors and he's not yet had a full year in the majors. Let's give him a chance to make the most difficult adjustment before calling his ability to do so in to question.

I'm not sure what your definition of "good" is, but if Stubbs can hit .265/.350./400, with his defense and speed, he'd be a league average CF or better. And if he does add the power scouts think he can and pushes that ISO up 40-50 points, you have a Mike Cameron clone. No, I don't think he's going to be Grady Sizemore, but I don't see why it's unreasonable to think that he's got a decent shot to be a "good" major leaguer.

I suppose our definitions of "mediocre" are different. I maintain Stubbs was a mediocre hitter at best in the minors and therefore his struggles at the plate in the Majors do not surprise me in the least. The only thing that will surprise me is if Stubbs is ever anything above an "average" hitter at the Big League level. I tend to think he will be mediocre at best in the Majors just like he was in the minors. I would love to be wrong.

[fearofpopvol1]

Stubbs had a nice game tonight. A single and a double plus a stolen base.

[OnBaseMachine]

From John Fay:

“Both of them are struggling,” Baker said. “Stubbs is struggling more. I’ve got to get him more aggressive early in the count. I know everybody talks about on-base percentage and working the court. But working the count isn’t helping.

“There are some pretty good guys around, like Juan Pierre, who hit what their on-base percentage is. We’re still trying to figure out what kind of big league hitter (Stubbs) is. I talked to him about being aggressive early in the count because when you’re hitting .150 with speed, the last thing they want to do is walk you. You’ve got to let them know they can’t start you off with first pitch fastball to get ahead of you.”

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...ching-leadoff/

[fearofpopvol1]

Actually Dusty, those typically lead to quick outs and a lower OBP. Sheesh...good grief.

[Homer Bailey]

From John Fay:



http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...ching-leadoff/

Why does this guy open his mouth?

[TheNext44]

From John Fay:



http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...ching-leadoff/

In the same article, Baker talked about the importance of clutch hitting and downplayed the importance of OBP. Somewhere RedsManRick's head is exploding.

[CesarGeronimo]

From John Fay:

“There are some pretty good guys around, like Juan Pierre, who hit what their on-base percentage is."

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...ching-leadoff/

What does this mean? That Juan Pierre's OBP is generated only by hits and not by walks, and this might be a good thing for a young guy like Stubbs to emulate?

Juan Pierre's career batting average is .299, by the way, and his career OBP is .347. He actually does not hit anything close to what his on-base percentage is, if I'm understanding what Dusty was saying.