What to do with Brandon Phillips

[TRF]

Yeah, nobody's ever criticized Jay Bruce on here.

Yeah and there were no threads about how unlucky he was either.

[Brutus]

I wonder if his new found patience at the plate (which started in spring training, so I don't think it's a fluke) is the reason why his BA is so low?

Phillips in his career thrived on hitting the first fastball he sees. Now, it seems he is going deeper into the count, and hitting with two strikes more often, and considering he is a terrible two strike hitter, in fact, he's not even that good of a one strike hitter, I wonder if he would be better off going back to his old self?

I have no idea if the data supports this theory, just thought I'd throw it out.

I don't think it has much relevance, but the data does support your observations about his approach.

He has a career-best rate going this year of not swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, according to Fangraphs. Further, he's got a career-best contact percentage going and is swinging at 5% fewer pitches than any season in his career.

He's walking 10.3% of the time thus far, which if that kept up would also be a career-high.

Really, for as much as Jay Bruce has been a bit snake-bitten, Phillips is also suffering from the .226 BABIP as mentioned. Now, Phillips only has a 15.6% line drive rate - which definitely is not very good. His xBABIP is .268 by one formula. Essentially, he should have 2-3 more hits than he has. His average would be just shy of .250 with three additional hits added.

So he's been a little unlucky, though it seems he's not hitting the ball hard enough for those balls to drop. If he gets back closer to about 19% line drive rate, he should be back around .270-.280 when it's all said and done.

[fearofpopvol1]

What I think Brandon suffers from is he tends to have "lazy moments." In the 2006 and 2007 season, I did not see this so much from him. He had more to prove than he does now. He's got a bigger contract and isn't always giving 100%. I think he got caught being lazy last night at 1B. Mind you, these moments do not happen all the time, but just on occasion and they are very frustrating.

On the plus side though...his plate approach, thus far this season, is the best I've seen from him. He is being way more patient and way more selective with pitches he swings at. He's walking too. I'm quite pleased with that.

[REDblooded]

It is interesting how Bruce got a pass for being unlucky with a low babip, and nobody mentions BP's .226 babip.

just sayin'

It's one thing to give a 23 year old with less than 900 AB's the benefit of the doubt... Quiet another to do it with a guy that turns 29 in a month, and has nearly 3000 AB's under his belt...

Also with Bruce it wasn't just Reds fans pointing to his BABIP... It's all you heard about all offseason from baseball writers who were projecting their breakout candidates...

[TheNext44]

I don't think it has much relevance, but the data does support your observations about his approach.

He has a career-best rate going this year of not swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, according to Fangraphs. Further, he's got a career-best contact percentage going and is swinging at 5% fewer pitches than any season in his career.

He's walking 10.3% of the time thus far, which if that kept up would also be a career-high.

Really, for as much as Jay Bruce has been a bit snake-bitten, Phillips is also suffering from the .226 BABIP as mentioned. Now, Phillips only has a 15.6% line drive rate - which definitely is not very good. His xBABIP is .268 by one formula. Essentially, he should have 2-3 more hits than he has. His average would be just shy of .250 with three additional hits added.

So he's been a little unlucky, though it seems he's not hitting the ball hard enough for those balls to drop. If he gets back closer to about 19% line drive rate, he should be back around .270-.280 when it's all said and done.

Thanks for the research.

I guess my big question now is, and I don't have a clue as to the answer:

Is Phillips' low LD% due to him taking more pitches?

[TRF]

It's one thing to give a 23 year old with less than 900 AB's the benefit of the doubt... Quiet another to do it with a guy that turns 29 in a month, and has nearly 3000 AB's under his belt...

Also with Bruce it wasn't just Reds fans pointing to his BABIP... It's all you heard about all offseason from baseball writers who were projecting their breakout candidates...

true, but with Bruce it was projecting and luck. With BP, well to quote a famous football coach, he is what we thought he was. That stated, he's had some bad luck. Not all of it is bad luck, but that babip probably won't continue.

Int the end, he's likely a 2.70-.280 hitter with a .340 OBP. And he'll probably hit 20HR's.

But like Stubbs is miscast as a leadoff hitter (my opinion) BP has to be removed from the #4 spot permanently.

[REDblooded]

Thanks for the research.

I guess my big question now is, and I don't have a clue as to the answer:

Is Phillips' low LD% due to him taking more pitches?

I think it has more to do with the fact that he's trying to put the screws to everything he swings at... Because he's overswinging he's missing high or low, and not making solid contact... That results in fly balls and dribblers that turn into double plays...

[REDblooded]

true, but with Bruce it was projecting and luck. With BP, well to quote a famous football coach, he is what we thought he was. That stated, he's had some bad luck. Not all of it is bad luck, but that babip probably won't continue.

Int the end, he's likely a 2.70-.280 hitter with a .340 OBP. And he'll probably hit 20HR's.

But like Stubbs is miscast as a leadoff hitter (my opinion) BP has to be removed from the #4 spot permanently.

Definitely agree with you here... I shuddered when Phillips opened spring training with a personal home run projection... Saw that as a sign of bad things to come.

[Brutus]

I think it has more to do with the fact that he's trying to put the screws to everything he swings at... Because he's overswinging he's missing high or low, and not making solid contact... That results in fly balls and dribblers that turn into double plays...

He's always done that. If anything, he's doing it less this year than usual.

[Far East]

Has anybody else noticed a decrease in his range on defense, or is it just my imagination?

It seems that more and more grounders, albeit hard hit balls and difficult plays, are making it past Brandon -- both to his glove side and backhand side.

IMHO, his range in 2010 is not all that much better than Cabrara's.

Based on current OPS, here are the 8 top position players (excluding Hernandez, because the other catcher ranks #1):

Hanigan 1.248
Janish 1.127
Votto 0.853
Rolen 0.915
Bruce 0.762
Cabrara 0.668
Phillips 0.641
Gomes 0.640

Note the absence of the two usual centerfielders, and a surplus of middle infielders. Can/should Phillips be moved to the OF? Could Janish at 2B and Phillips, say at CF, hit and field reasonably well enough to merit the makeover? It would move a gold glove infielder to the OF, but it would get one of the top 8 OPS guys into the lineup. Of course, that big a shift could best happen during spring training.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Just watching him and his actions, he looks like he is in an "All-out pout," right now.

[OnBaseMachine]

From C. Trent's twitter:

Asked Dusty should Phillips have had a triple in 3rd? "Probably"

http://twitter.com/ctrent

When will Phillips learn? How many times have we seen him jog out of the box after thinking he's hit a home run? I also thought he should have been on third base. Votto followed Phillips double with a deep flyout, so if Phillips had been on third he would've scored. Failing to get that run in turned out to be huge as the Reds lost the game by one run.

[flyer85]

1) get a jar of mustard
2) apply liberally

[edabbs44]

From C. Trent's twitter:

Asked Dusty should Phillips have had a triple in 3rd? "Probably"

http://twitter.com/ctrent

When will Phillips learn? How many times have we seen him jog out of the box after thinking he's hit a home run? I also thought he should have been on third base. Votto followed Phillips double with a deep flyout, so if Phillips had been on third he would've scored. Failing to get that run in turned out to be huge as the Reds lost the game by one run.

Wonder if you see Janish "spelling" him tomorrow. IIRC, Dusty hasn't been afraid to bench BP in the past.

[OnBaseMachine]

From John Fay - Baker throws Phillips under the bus

But there’s a pretty good chance the Reds could have gotten one more. With one out in the third Brandon Phillips hit one high drive off the wall in the left-center. The ball took a weird bounce past center fielder Angel Pagan.

Phillips ended up with a double. He very likely could have had a triple. But he did not break hard out of the batter’s box.

Dusty Baker was asked if Phillips should have been on third on the play.

“Yeah, probably,” Baker said. “It looked at first he thought it might be gone. He started running about half way (to first). It’s a little too late at that time.”

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...under-the-bus/

I like Phillips, he's a good player, but he has got to stop doing this.