My take on Aroldis Chapman tonight

[TRF]

I don't think anyone is dismissing it at all. In fact, it has not been brought up once on Redszone that RS17 was actually a pitcher in college or a current pitching coach in college until the 4th page of this thread (unless I missed it, but I went back and looked). I am betting that 95% of the people who read this thread didn't know he was, so they clearly weren't going to ask questions aside from Chapman observations.

It's going to be colder tonight than it was last night, too. I know Donnie Collins, who wrote that story, very well. Check out his blog at blogs.thetimes-tribune.com/yankees/ to see what he thinks of Chapman tonight. He's already asked me for some input and my radar gun readings tonight. Should be a fun night despite the weather.

That link, which BTW was not to his site but to another writer's site, clearly stated he is the pitching coach at the University of Scranton. This was a few days before he posted the thread giving his opinion. I have no idea if you read the page that link went to, but I did. It's cool to get other opinions.

just sayin'.

[REDblooded]

Of course, dismissing the thoughts of someone that IS coaching at a level higher than high school seems a bit odd.

So here we have a new poster. One that coaches at the college level, and coaches the sport we all love, and instead of picking his brain for nuances of pitching, philosophies etc, we are arguing the semantics of missing your mark.

How very Redszonian. We do eat our young here don't we?

I'm more amazed we haven't bombarded him with questions. Instead we get questions like how many games dougdirt has charted.

oy flippin vey.

And here we get the basis of my comment towards Doug...

Doug, to be fair, you pretty much took an "I'm all knowing" stance against this guy in a hurry... I don't always disagree with what you say (in fact, I probably agree with about 3/4's of your opinions), but on this one it was pretty bad... I had already visited his site and read his background, so I could see where he was coming from... My feeling on you Doug is that you do possess a great deal of information. You try to break down the game at a deeper level, and have a few decent connections that keep you informed. However, I can tell that you are still a young baseball fan, and albeit WAY more dedicated to learning than most, you're still putting it all together... That's no knock on you at all, but as a suggestion I wouldn't argue so vehemently against something like this unless you're 100% sure on it... And your dislike or doubt for Chapman has been pretty obvious since the day he was signed, so I don't get the feeling that you're arguments have been purely based on intelligence vs. emotion...

To get this back on Chapman... Give me a pitcher that has velocity and movement and tends to miss his spots where hitters still can't put good wood on the ball and I'll take it...

[GIDP]

I pitched for the florence freedom is that below or above high school?

I didnt really.

[dougdirt]

And here we get the basis of my comment towards Doug...

Doug, to be fair, you pretty much took an "I'm all knowing" stance against this guy in a hurry... I don't always disagree with what you say (in fact, I probably agree with about 3/4's of your opinions), but on this one it was pretty bad... I had already visited his site and read his background, so I could see where he was coming from... My feeling on you Doug is that you do possess a great deal of information. You try to break down the game at a deeper level, and have a few decent connections that keep you informed. However, I can tell that you are still a young baseball fan, and albeit WAY more dedicated to learning than most, you're still putting it all together... That's no knock on you at all, but as a suggestion I wouldn't argue so vehemently against something like this unless you're 100% sure on it... And your dislike or doubt for Chapman has been pretty obvious since the day he was signed, so I don't get the feeling that you're arguments have been purely based on intelligence vs. emotion...

To get this back on Chapman... Give me a pitcher that has velocity and movement and tends to miss his spots where hitters still can't put good wood on the ball and I'll take it...

So because I think that Chapman needs more time it is based on emotion rather than what I have seen because when he was first signed I said that I wanted to see more from him before anointing him a better prospect than Fraizer or Alonso and advised caution because of conflicting scouting reports on him?

I am 100% sure on what I said with Chapman within this thread. Absolutely 100% sure about it. He missed his spots, though less than he has in the past, often. The hitters made his command seem better, especially if we look solely at the numbers of strikes, by being overmatched and chasing pitches out of the zone. There were even some actual strikes where he missed his spots where the catcher sets up low and in (in the zone), but would catch it in the upper outside corner of the zone. Yes, it was a strike, but it didn't display good control because he missed his spot.

[TRF]

So because I think that Chapman needs more time it is based on emotion rather than what I have seen because when he was first signed I said that I wanted to see more from him before anointing him a better prospect than Fraizer or Alonso and advised caution because of conflicting scouting reports on him?

I am 100% sure on what I said with Chapman within this thread. Absolutely 100% sure about it. He missed his spots, though less than he has in the past, often. The hitters made his command seem better, especially if we look solely at the numbers of strikes, by being overmatched and chasing pitches out of the zone. There were even some actual strikes where he missed his spots where the catcher sets up low and in (in the zone), but would catch it in the upper outside corner of the zone. Yes, it was a strike, but it didn't display good control because he missed his spot.

And you are basing this on the cameras at a AAA park. On your TV. His assessment was from no more than 50 feet away. And he backs it with a coaching background in the field of pitching.

But it wasn't what you said, it was how you said it. It came off rude, like he was infringing on your territory. In fact, I'm still amazed you haven't actually asked him a question about pitching, cuz I'm willing to bet he knows quite a bit on the subject.

[Tommyjohn25]

Take the personal comments private. RS17, welcome to the board. We all look forward to your insight as much as anyone else on the board.

[dougdirt]

And you are basing this on the cameras at a AAA park. On your TV. His assessment was from no more than 50 feet away. And he backs it with a coaching background in the field of pitching.

But it wasn't what you said, it was how you said it. It came off rude, like he was infringing on your territory.

Watched on TV. Not sure why that would be 'less ideal' to use to determine control. Unlike being behind home plate, I can actually see exactly where the catcher holds his target and exactly where the catcher catches the ball. In terms of control especially, I don't think it takes any baseball background at all to look where the catcher sets his initial target and watch where the catcher actually catches the ball. My brother who doesn't know much about baseball at all (I know, I failed him) could do that. That is really the only thing I brought up in this entire thread outside of the radar gun reading. As I noted in the first page or two, if I came off rude, I didn't mean that in the slightest, I was just strongly disagreeing with the control being good for Chapman in the game last night (at the time).

[Homer Bailey]

My take on this "debate" is that I saw the pitch charting that Doug did on one of Chapman's starts, and it was disturbing. He was not hitting the spots he was aiming for. He's getting away with it at AAA, but I don't think Doug sees him getting away with that at the big boy level. Don't mean to put words in Doug's mouth, but he has seen Chapman pitch more than RS has, and probably from a better view. Yes, I think watching a game on TV is better (from a pitch charting standpoint) than watching it in person, especially depending upon the angle at which you are sitting. Doug's opinion is based on seeing Chapman multiple times, whereas RS has seen him just this once (correct me if I'm wrong).

My opinion is that you can watch someone one time and think something completely different than someone who has watched him more than one time. Differences of opinion ARE OK! Scouts have 'em all the time. GM's have 'em. Coaches have 'em. It's not that big of a deal.

RS, I very much appreciated your input and your blog post. Please stick around.

[TRF]

Yes, I think watching a game on TV is better (from a pitch charting standpoint) than watching it in person, especially depending upon the angle at which you are sitting. Doug's opinion is based on seeing Chapman multiple times, whereas RS has seen him just this once (correct me if I'm wrong).

My opinion is that you can watch someone one time and think something completely different than someone who has watched him more than one time. Differences of opinion ARE OK! Scouts have 'em all the time. GM's have 'em. Coaches have 'em. It's not that big of a deal.

RS, I very much appreciated your input and your blog post. Please stick around.

Then why do scouts go to games? How much do you not see on TV? Do you see how he warms up between innings? Do you get the overall approach? An in person account was all we had to go on, several months ago, and now we get more in person accounts, and they are wholly disregarded. And it's not like the guy is an amateur. He gets paid to know about pitching. Do any of us?

I'm not saying his word is gospel, but I have watched one of Chapman's games, and I completely disagreed with doug's assessment of him missing his spots by "18 inches". Chapman isn't Maddux by any means, but he's been pretty dominating at AAA. And I don't think that is luck.

[dougdirt]

Then why do scouts go to games? How much do you not see on TV? Do you see how he warms up between innings? Do you get the overall approach? An in person account was all we had to go on, several months ago, and now we get more in person accounts, and they are wholly disregarded. And it's not like the guy is an amateur. He gets paid to know about pitching. Do any of us?

I'm not saying his word is gospel, but I have watched one of Chapman's games, and I completely disagreed with doug's assessment of him missing his spots by "18 inches". Chapman isn't Maddux by any means, but he's been pretty dominating at AAA. And I don't think that is luck.

You answered your own question. Scouts can see things at games that they can't on tv. How does he field his position, especially on plays to the right side of the infield or on plays to the outfield where the pitcher needs to back up the throws. Or how the guy warms up or what he does in warm ups. Accurate radar readings. You can talk to the players in person. Talk to his teammates, his coaches. People around him all the time. Most of that stuff you aren't getting by watching on TV.

Which game did you watch TRF? Do you have an MILB.tv subscription? If so, I would ask that if you get some spare time, just go back and chart the game. Note where Castillo/Miller set up the target. Note where they caught the pitch. At the end of the game, I think it will be quite telling. He is dominating AAA and it surely isn't luck. His stuff overmatches these guys, big time. It won't be that way in the majors so much. When he isn't overmatching those guys, he is going to have to be a pitcher, not a thrower. Right now, he is a thrower with amazing raw pitching abilities.

[TRF]

You answered your own question. Scouts can see things at games that they can't on tv. How does he field his position, especially on plays to the right side of the infield or on plays to the outfield where the pitcher needs to back up the throws. Or how the guy warms up or what he does in warm ups. Accurate radar readings. You can talk to the players in person. Talk to his teammates, his coaches. People around him all the time. Most of that stuff you aren't getting by watching on TV.

Which game did you watch TRF? Do you have an MILB.tv subscription? If so, I would ask that if you get some spare time, just go back and chart the game. Note where Castillo/Miller set up the target. Note where they caught the pitch. At the end of the game, I think it will be quite telling. He is dominating AAA and it surely isn't luck. His stuff overmatches these guys, big time. It won't be that way in the majors so much. When he isn't overmatching those guys, he is going to have to be a pitcher, not a thrower. Right now, he is a thrower with amazing raw pitching abilities.

I watched his first game. It was freely available on MLB.com, as was Strasburg's. Sadly I can't really afford the time or money for either MLB or MILB.com subscriptions. My kids don't see me enough as it is. (1 fulltime job, teaching part time.)

But I just didn't see the same thing you did. What I do see is a kid adjusting to a new schedule, new country and new life. I saw a kid with dominating stuff that can pitch out of the zone with good movement. He's certainly not a finished product, and there is more than one reason for him to be in the minors, but isn't it interesting that he's in AAA and not AA like Strasburg? That could be a proximity issue, Louisville is much closer than Carolina, but he isn't getting roughed up there like you often portray him. Case in point, Leake's first three starts: 13 BB's, 13K's. IMO Chapman could have done as well if not better. But Leake migh be better suited AT THIS TIME to make adjustments in his game. So I have no real issue with him on the Reds right now. But for a guy that has loved Bailey his entire professional career, it seems odd that you are so critical of Chapman, whose ceiling is MUCH higher than Bailey's.

[dougdirt]

I watched his first game. It was freely available on MLB.com, as was Strasburg's. Sadly I can't really afford the time or money for either MLB or MILB.com subscriptions. My kids don't see me enough as it is. (1 fulltime job, teaching part time.)

Fair enough.

But I just didn't see the same thing you did. What I do see is a kid adjusting to a new schedule, new country and new life. I saw a kid with dominating stuff that can pitch out of the zone with good movement.

I saw a lot of that too. I am specifically referring to his control. Not his stuff. Not his ceiling. His ability to throw the ball to the target that the catcher places. In the game you saw, the opposing manager noted after the game that Chapman probably walks 8 or 9 major leaguers if he threw that exact game because they wouldn't have been overmatched and expanding the zone. C Trent echoed those sentiments as well.

but he isn't getting roughed up there like you often portray him. Case in point, Leake's first three starts: 13 BB's, 13K's. IMO Chapman could have done as well if not better. But Leake migh be better suited AT THIS TIME to make adjustments in his game. So I have no real issue with him on the Reds right now. But for a guy that has loved Bailey his entire professional career, it seems odd that you are so critical of Chapman, whose ceiling is MUCH higher than Bailey's.

I don't think I have once said anything about him getting roughed up. I have said multiple times that he has problems throwing the ball to the target and that he is flat overmatching guys in AAA and its hiding his control problems for now. As for the comparison to Leake, if we are solely looking at the numbers, then sure. But if we actually look at the games, we can see that Leake was missing his spots on the corners by inches and walking guys. While Chapman was missing outside on pitches called for on the inside part of the plate. There is a drastic difference between control of the two guys. As for Bailey, his control, the ability to throw to the catchers mitt, was better in AAA than any one game I have seen from Chapman thus far. The difference is, his stuff is better and its overmatching the guys.

[REDblooded]

The only issue though, and I've heard this plenty from commentators on TV, is that the angle of the camera can skew things a touch... So you don't always "see" what you think you see...

[TRF]

I saw a lot of that too. I am specifically referring to his control. Not his stuff. Not his ceiling. His ability to throw the ball to the target that the catcher places. In the game you saw, the opposing manager noted after the game that Chapman probably walks 8 or 9 major leaguers if he threw that exact game because they wouldn't have been overmatched and expanding the zone. C Trent echoed those sentiments as well.

My point is considering all the adjustments he's had to make, it's possible he isn't quite on the same page, or fully vested in the Reds program yet. I think he's pitching his game. That may not be a good thing, But I think maybe in his mind he knows where he can throw a pitch that will induce a swing, and he know not much will happen with it. That may not be reality, but it may be his approach. I have no idea if this is the case, but in my mind it is more than plausible.

I don't think I have once said anything about him getting roughed up. I have said multiple times that he has problems throwing the ball to the target and that he is flat overmatching guys in AAA and its hiding his control problems for now. As for the comparison to Leake, if we are solely looking at the numbers, then sure. But if we actually look at the games, we can see that Leake was missing his spots on the corners by inches and walking guys. While Chapman was missing outside on pitches called for on the inside part of the plate. There is a drastic difference between control of the two guys. As for Bailey, his control, the ability to throw to the catchers mitt, was better in AAA than any one game I have seen from Chapman thus far. The difference is, his stuff is better and its overmatching the guys.

You've seen 4 games. 4. Only after Bailey's 3rd year in AAA did he get his BB's under control. This is the single most exciting pitching prospect the Reds have had in my lifetime. Maybe Soto, but I was a little young to be following minor leaguers then. Tell it straight, don't sugarcoat it, but at least mention the positives.

[dougdirt]

The only issue though, and I've heard this plenty from commentators on TV, is that the angle of the camera can skew things a touch... So you don't always "see" what you think you see...

While I think it could be true that you may not see the inside or outside corners well enough to call strikes, you can absolutely tell the catcher setting up near the inside and catching it on the other side of the plate, easily.

Off topic slightly with the camera angles.... has anyone else noticed the angle the Texas Rangers home broadcast uses? Its akin to the Reds using a camera on top of the party deck over the batters eye. It is so strange watching highlights from their games. It really messes with you because it seems everyone else uses a camera just over the center field wall.